Latest Seasonal Assessment - After a brief period of tranquil weather during early November, abundant moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Ida, coupled with a developing Nor’easter and a stationary front, dropped heavy rains on most of the Southeast, alleviating drought in the Carolinas. Florida was an exception where significant rains bypassed the southern two-thirds of the State, and moderate drought developed in east-central Florida. Light to moderate showers in the upper Midwest erased moderate drought in northern Minnesota, but drier weather to the south maintained drought across northern Wisconsin. Light rain also fell across south-central Texas, but amounts were insufficient for any significant improvement. Although the Pacific Northwest observed stormy weather, areas to the south were left mostly dry, with drought expanding into southern Nevada. The outlook for December 2009 through February 2010 continues to indicate drought improvement for California, southern Arizona, southern Texas, and Florida. The current moderate El Niño is expected to last through this winter, increasing the odds toward improvement in the aforementioned areas. Ongoing drought with some improvement is forecast for the remainder of the Southwest (southeastern California, central and northern Arizona, Nevada, and the Four Corners Region). In contrast, drought should persist in northern Wisconsin and north-central Washington, and slightly expand eastward into the northern Rockies. During El Niño events, the odds favor subnormal winter rainfall across the Hawaiian Islands which should cause worsening conditions for the existing drought regions, and possible drought development over areas that are currently drought free.

Forecasters: B. Pugh and D. Miskus

Next Outlook issued: December 3, 2009 at 8:30 AM EDT