Latest Seasonal Assessment - During June, a heat wave combined with much below normal rainfall has resulted in drought expansion across southeast Texas and Louisiana. Due in part to a forecast of above normal temperatures and below-median precipitation during the next two weeks, drought should persist or expand further across the western Gulf Coast region. Odds for improvement increase across northwest Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and southern Nebraska, while drought should persist across central Oklahoma. The southwest monsoon that typically peaks during August should result in improvement across southeast Arizona and New Mexico. Some improvement is forecast across Minnesota and Wisconsin, but hydrological impacts should continue into September. Climatology favors drought persistence across the West. Enhanced odds for below-median precipitation and above normal temperatures across the Pacific Northwest from July-September should lead to drought development across inland Washington. Persistence is expected across Montana. Improvement is forecast across the eastern slopes of the Hawaii’s Big Island with drought persistence or development forecast for the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands.

Forecaster: B. Pugh

Next Outlook issued: July 16, 2009 at 8:30 AM EDT