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Latest Seasonal Assessment -
After a brief period of tranquil weather during early November, abundant moisture from the remnants of Hurricane
Ida, coupled with a developing Nor’easter and a stationary front, dropped heavy rains on most of the Southeast,
alleviating drought in the Carolinas. Florida was an exception where significant rains bypassed the southern
two-thirds of the State, and moderate drought developed in east-central Florida. Light to moderate showers in the
upper Midwest erased moderate drought in northern Minnesota, but drier weather to the south maintained drought
across northern Wisconsin. Light rain also fell across south-central Texas, but amounts were insufficient for any
significant improvement. Although the Pacific Northwest observed stormy weather, areas to the south were left
mostly dry, with drought expanding into southern Nevada. The outlook for December 2009 through February 2010
continues to indicate drought improvement for California, southern Arizona, southern Texas, and Florida. The
current moderate El Niño is expected to last through this winter, increasing the odds toward improvement in the
aforementioned areas. Ongoing drought with some improvement is forecast for the remainder of the Southwest
(southeastern California, central and northern Arizona, Nevada, and the Four Corners Region). In contrast, drought
should persist in northern Wisconsin and north-central Washington, and slightly expand eastward into the northern
Rockies. During El Niño events, the odds favor subnormal winter rainfall across the Hawaiian Islands which should
cause worsening conditions for the existing drought regions, and possible drought development over areas that are
currently drought free.
Forecasters: B. Pugh and D. Miskus
Next Outlook issued: December 3, 2009 at 8:30 AM EDT
Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion
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