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S2S LRF for the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico
WMO RCC-Washington Home > Products for the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico > Subseasonal to Seasonal Long-Range Forecasts for the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico

Subseasonal to Seasonal Long-Range Forecasts for the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico

The WMO RCC-Washington provides several forecasts products from:

  • Global Forecast System (GFS)
    • week-1 and week-2 forecasts of precipitation, 2m air temperature, wind and precipitable water
    • experimental week-1 and week-2 heat wave forecasts
    • verifications of week-1 and week-2 forecasts (HSS and AUC)
  • North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)*
    • monthly and seasonal forecasts of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), precipitation and 2m air temperature
    • downscaled seasonal forecasts of precipitation over Central America
    • forecasts and hindcast data
    • verifications of monthly and seasonal forecasts (HSS and RPSS)


* The NMME consists of 7 models:

  • NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2),
  • Coupled Climate Models from Canada: CanCM4i (CCCma, Victoria, Canada) and GEM-NEMO (RPN, Dorval, Canada),
  • NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (GFDL) and GFDL Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution model using parameter set B (FLORB-01),
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5),
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model version 4 (NCAR-CCSM4).







GFS AND GEFS WEEK-1 FORECASTS


Deterministic precipitation forecast
Total Anomalies
(non bias corrected)
Anomalies
(bias corrected)


Probabilistic precipitation forecast
2-category probabilistic anomaly forecast (non calibrated) 2-category probabilistic anomaly forecast (calibrated)




GEFS WEEK-1 FORECASTS



Precipitation exceedance probabilities (relative threshold)
Probabilities Moderate
Dryness/Wetness
Probabilities High
Dryness/Wetness
< 33rd & > 67th
Percentile
< 20th & > 80th
Percentile


Precipitation total exceedance probabilities (absolute threshold)
00z Cycle 06z Cycle 12z Cycle 18z Cycle
RR > 25 mm
RR > 50 mm
RR > 75 mm
RR > 100 mm
RR > 150 mm
RR > 300 mm




GFS AND GEFS WEEK-1 FORECASTS



Deterministic 2m air temperature forecast
Maximum Maximum Anomalies Minimum Minimum Anomalies


Probabilistic 2m air temperature forecast
2-category probabilistic
anomaly forecast (non calibrated)
2-category probabilistic
anomaly forecast (calibrated)




GFS WEEK-1 FORECASTS



Wind
Level Total Anomalies Divergence
Anomalies
850 mb
700 mb
200 mb




GEFS WEEK-1 PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST






EXPERIMENTAL GEFS WEEK-1 HEAT WAVE FORECAST


These experimental forecast maps indicate the probability that:

  • the NOAA's Heat Index exceeds the 80th and 90th percentile during at least 2 and 3 consecutive days.
  • the maximum temperature exceeds the 80th and 90th percentile during at least 2 and 3 consecutive days.



Heat wave based on HI
Heat Index ≥ 80th percentile Heat Index ≥ 90th percentile
≥ 2 consecutive days
≥ 3 consecutive days


Heat wave based on Tmax
Tmax ≥ 80th percentile Tmax ≥ 90th percentile
≥ 2 consecutive days
≥ 3 consecutive days




GFS AND GEFS WEEK-2 FORECASTS



Deterministic precipitation forecast
Total Anomalies
(non bias corrected)
Anomalies
(bias corrected)


Probabilistic precipitation forecast
2-category probabilistic
anomaly forecast (non calibrated)
2-category probabilistic
anomaly forecast (calibrated)




GEFS WEEK-2 FORECASTS



Precipitation exceedance probabilities (relative threshold)
Probabilities Moderate
Dryness/Wetness
Probabilities High
Dryness/Wetness
< 33rd & > 67th
Percentile
< 20th & > 80th
Percentile


Precipitation total exceedance probabilities (absolute threshold)
00z Cycle 06z Cycle 12z Cycle 18z Cycle
RR > 25 mm
RR > 50 mm
RR > 75 mm
RR > 100 mm
RR > 150 mm
RR > 300 mm

GEFS WEEK-2 FORECASTS



Probabilistic 2m air temperature forecast
2-category probabilistic
anomaly forecast (non calibrated)
2-category probabilistic
anomaly forecast (calibrated)




GFS WEEK-2 FORECASTS



Wind
Level Total Anomalies Divergence
Anomalies
850 mb
700 mb
200 mb




GEFS WEEK-2 PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST






EXPERIMENTAL GEFS WEEK-2 HEAT WAVE FORECAST


These experimental forecast maps indicate the probability that:

  • the NOAA's Heat Index exceeds the 80th and 90th percentile during at least 2 and 3 consecutive days.
  • the maximum temperature exceeds the 80th and 90th percentile during at least 2 and 3 consecutive days.



Heat wave based on HI
Heat Index ≥ 80th percentile Heat Index ≥ 90th percentile
≥ 2 consecutive days
≥ 3 consecutive days


Heat wave based on Tmax
Tmax ≥ 80th percentile Tmax ≥ 90th percentile
≥ 2 consecutive days
≥ 3 consecutive days




WEEK-3/4



UNDER DEVELOPMENT

NMME MONTHLY FORECASTS



Sea Surface Temperature
Anomalies Standard Anomalies Skill Masked
Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps 3-Category
Probabilities
Global
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean
Atlantic and Indian Ocean


Precipitation
Anomalies Standard Anomalies Skill Masked
Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps 3-Category
Probabilities
The Caribbean,
Central America
and Mexico


2m air temperature
Anomalies Standard Anomalies Skill Masked
Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps 3-Category
Probabilities
The Caribbean,
Central America
and Mexico








NMME SEASONAL FORECASTS



Sea Surface Temperature
Anomalies Standard Anomalies Skill Masked
Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps 3-Category
Probabilities
Global
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean
Atlantic and Indian Ocean


Precipitation
Anomalies Standard Anomalies Skill Masked
Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps 3-Category
Probabilities
The Caribbean,
Central America
and Mexico


2m air temperature
Anomalies Standard Anomalies Skill Masked
Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps 3-Category
Probabilities
The Caribbean,
Central America
and Mexico



NMME DOWNSCALED SEASONAL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR CENTRAL AMERICA



The Climate Prediction Center produces NMME downscaled seasonal precipitation forecasts (0-lead, 1-month lead-time, and 2-month lead-time) for Central America every month.


Precipitation forecasts



Archives of the downscaled precipitation forecasts can be accessed here.









MONTHLY FORECAST ASSESSMENT



UNDER DEVELOPMENT











REGIONAL HAZARDS OUTLOOKS

The Climate Prediction Center produces hazards outlooks for Central America and the Hispaniola on a weekly basis. The hazards outlooks are based on a wide range of products, including rain gauge data and satellite rainfall estimates, subseasonal and seasonal rainfall and surface temperature forecasts as well as crop and vegetation information.


Central America Hazards Outlook Hispaniola Hazards Outlook





FORECAST AND HINDCAST DATA

Monthly and seasonal forecast and hindcast data are provided in the GrADS readable format (binary format) and in the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) format (ASCII text) which can be used as input in the IRI/CPT software for further tailoring of the climate products.





Available data for downloading
Products Variables Temporal scale Lead time Spatial scale Period Models Format
Forecasts SST, T2m, RR
(+ anomalies and standard anomalies)
monthly 1- to 8-month global the last two years CFSv2, CMC1, CMC2, GFDL, GFDL-FLOR, NASA, NCAR-CCSM4, NMME binary
seasonal 1- to 6-month
SST, T2m, RR skills monthly, seasonal 1-month
SST, T2m, RR monthly, seasonal 1- to 6-month CPT
Hindcasts SST, T2m, RR monthly, seasonal 1- to 6-month 1982-2010 CPT





RCOFs IN THE WMO RA IV


To date, two Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) have been established and are successfully implemented in the WMO RA IV:

  • the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) coordinated by the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), and
  • the Central American Climate Outlook Forum (CACOF) coordinated by the Regional Committee of Hydraulic Resources.

Click on the link below to access the latest RCOF consensus statements:





VERIFICATIONS FOR WEEK-1 FORECASTS


The figures below provides the time series of the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for both non calibrated and calibrated week-1 probabilistic precipitation forecasts for the past 30 days.

The averaged scores over the 30-day period are indicated on the right margin. The dates on the x-axis correspond to the ending date of the valid period of the forecasts.



Time series for the week-1 precipitation forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS) Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)

The figures below provides the skill maps and the time series of the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for the week-1 exceedance precipitation forecasts for the past 30 days.



Skill maps for the week-1 exceedance precipitation forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS) Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)
Precipitation > 25 mm
Precipitation > 50 mm
Precipitation > 75 mm
Precipitation > 100 mm

Time series for the week-1 exceedance precipitation forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS) Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)




VERIFICATIONS FOR WEEK-1 FORECASTS


The figures below provides the time series of the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for both non calibrated and calibrated week-1 probabilistic 2m air temperature forecasts for the past 30 days.

The averaged scores over the 30-day period are indicated on the right margin. The dates on the x-axis correspond to the ending date of the valid period of the forecasts.



Time series for the week-1 2m air temperature forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS) Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)




VERIFICATIONS FOR WEEK-1 FORECASTS


The figures below provides the time series of the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for the week-1 heat wave forecasts for the past 30 days.

The averaged scores over the 30-day period are indicated on the right margin. The dates on the x-axis correspond to the ending date of the valid period of the forecasts.



Heat wave
Heidke Skill Score (HSS) Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)




VERIFICATIONS FOR WEEK-2 FORECASTS


The figures below provides the time series of Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for both non calibrated and calibrated week-2 probabilistic precipitation forecasts for the past 30 days.

The averaged scores over the 30-day period are indicated on the right margin. The dates on the x-axis correspond to the ending date of the valid period of the forecasts.



Time series for the week-2 precipitation forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS) Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)

The figures below provides the skill maps and the time series of the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for the week-1 exceedance precipitation forecasts for the past 30 days.



Skill maps for the week-2 exceedance precipitation forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS) Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)
Precipitation > 25 mm
Precipitation > 50 mm
Precipitation > 75 mm
Precipitation > 100 mm

Time series for the week-2 exceedance precipitation forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS) Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)




VERIFICATIONS FOR WEEK-2 FORECASTS


The figures below provides the time series of Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for both non calibrated and calibrated week-2 probabilistic 2m air temperature forecasts for the past 30 days.

The averaged scores over the 30-day period are indicated on the right margin. The dates on the x-axis correspond to the ending date of the valid period of the forecasts.



Time series for the week-2 2m air temperature forecasts
Heidke Skill Score (HSS) Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)




VERIFICATIONS FOR WEEK-2 FORECASTS


The figures below provides the time series of the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for the week-2 heat wave forecasts for the past 30 days.

The averaged scores over the 30-day period are indicated on the right margin. The dates on the x-axis correspond to the ending date of the valid period of the forecasts.



Heat wave
Heidke Skill Score (HSS) Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC)




VERIFICATIONS FOR MONTHLY DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS


This table provides the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS) maps for monthly precipitation and 2m air temperature anomaly forecasts, according to the month of initial conditions.

HSS and RPSS are calculated over the period 2012-2020.



Precipitation
January February March April May June July August September October November December
HSS
RPSS



Temperature
January February March April May June July August September October November December
HSS
RPSS




VERIFICATIONS FOR SEASONAL DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS


This table provides the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) and Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS) maps for monthly precipitation and 2m air temperature anomaly forecasts, according to the month of initial conditions.

HSS and RPSS are calculated over the period 2012-2020.





Precipitation
January February March April May June July August September October November December
HSS
RPSS




Temperature
January February March April May June July August September October November December
HSS
RPSS





NOAA/ National Weather Service
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
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College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: February 12, 2012
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