Skip Navigation Links www.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA home page National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page
Climate Prediction Center

S2S LRF for the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico
USRCC Home > Products for the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico > Subseasonal to Seasonal Long-Range Forecasts for the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico

Subseasonal to Seasonal Long-Range Forecasts for the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico

The USRCC provides:

  • precipitation, 2m air temperature and wind forecasts for week 1 and week 2 (forecasts for week 3 and week 4 are under development),
  • monthly and seasonal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), precipitation and 2m air temperature from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the different models that participate in NMME,
  • monthly forecasts discussion (under development),
  • climate advisories and information,
  • verifications of RCC quantitative long-range forecasts products (under development),
  • forecasts and hindcasts data from the different NMME models.

Click on one of the tabs below to see the available regional forecast products.




GFS AND GEFS FORECASTS FOR WEEK 1



PRECIPITATION
Total Anomalies
(No Bias Corrected)
Anomalies
(Bias Corrected)
Probabilities Moderate
Dryness/Wetness
Probabilities High
Dryness/Wetness




PRECIPITATION TOTAL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
00z Cycle 06z Cycle 12z Cycle 18z Cycle
RR > 25 mm
RR > 50 mm
RR > 75 mm
RR > 100 mm
RR > 150 mm
RR > 300 mm




2M AIR TEMPERATURE
Maximum Maximum Anomalies Minimum Minimum Anomalies




WIND
Level Total Anomalies Divergence
Anomalies
850 mb
700 mb
200 mb








GFS AND GEFS FORECASTS FOR WEEK 2



PRECIPITATION
Anomalies
(No Bias Corrected)
Anomalies
(Bias Corrected)
Probabilities Moderate
Dryness/Wetness
Probabilities High
Dryness/Wetness




PRECIPITATION TOTAL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
00z Cycle 06z Cycle 12z Cycle 18z Cycle
RR > 25 mm
RR > 50 mm
RR > 75 mm
RR > 100 mm
RR > 150 mm
RR > 300 mm


WIND
Level Total Anomalies Divergence
Anomalies
850 mb
700 mb
200 mb








WEEK 3 and WEEK 4



UNDER DEVELOPMENT



NMME MONTHLY FORECASTS



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
Anomalies Standard Anomalies Skill Masked
Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps 3-Category
Probabilities
Global
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean
Atlantic and Indian Ocean


PRECIPITATION
Anomalies Standard Anomalies Skill Masked
Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps 3-Category
Probabilities
Probability Anomalies
The Caribbean,
Central America
and Mexico


2M AIR TEMPERATURE
Anomalies Standard Anomalies Skill Masked
Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps 3-Category
Probabilities
Probability Anomalies
The Caribbean,
Central America
and Mexico








NMME SEASONAL FORECASTS



SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
Anomalies Standard Anomalies Skill Masked
Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps 3-Category
Probabilities
Global
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean
Atlantic and Indian Ocean


PRECIPITATION
Anomalies Standard Anomalies Skill Masked
Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps 3-Category
Probabilities
Probability Anomalies
The Caribbean,
Central America
and Mexico


2M AIR TEMPERATURE
Anomalies Standard Anomalies Skill Masked
Standard Anomalies
Skill Maps 3-Category
Probabilities
Probability Anomalies
The Caribbean,
Central America
and Mexico








MONTHLY FORECASTS DISCUSSION



UNDER DEVELOPMENT











The Climate Prediction Center produces hazards outlooks for Central America and the Hispaniola on a weekly basis.


Central America Hazards Outlook Hispaniola Hazards Outlook





VERIFICATIONS



UNDER DEVELOPMENT



FORECASTS AND HINDCASTS DATA

Monthly and seasonal data forecasts and hindcasts are provided in the grADS readable format (binary format) and in the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) format (ASCII text) which can be used as input in the IRI/CPT software for further tailoring of the climate products.





Available data for downloading
Products Variables Temporal scale Lead time Spatial scale Period Models Format
Forecasts SST, T2m, RR
(+ anomalies and standard anomalies)
monthly 1- to 8-month global the last 2 months CFSv2, CMC1, CMC2, GFDL, GFDL-FLOR, NASA, NCAR-CCSM4, NMME binary
seasonal 1- to 6-month
SST, T2m, RR skills monthly, seasonal 1-month
SST, T2m, RR monthly, seasonal 1- to 6-month CPT
Hindcasts SST, T2m, RR monthly, seasonal 1- to 6-month 1982-2010 CPT






NOAA/ National Weather Service
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team
Page last modified: February 12, 2012
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities