The Scripps Joint Institute for Marine Observations (JIMO
and Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) are gratefully
acknowledged for providing assistance in coordinating the local arrangements
for this workshop.
Monday October 22, 2001
7:40-7:45 Welcome, James D. Laver, Acting Director, CPC
7:45-7:50 Opening Remarks, C. Kennel, Director, Scripps
John Roads, Scripps
SESSION 1: REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT OF RECENT CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Chair: Jim Laver
7:50-8:10 REVIEW OF THE EVOLUTION OF ENSO IN 2000-2001
V. Kousky
8:10-8:30 SUMMARY OF THE 2001 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON:
A CLIMATIC PERSPECTIVE
S. B. Goldenberg, C. Landsea and G. D. Bell
8:30-8:50 THE MAJOR INDEX CYCLE DURING WINTER 2001 AND
ITS PREDICTION
K. M. Weickmann, M. Newman, C. Winkler, P. Sardeshmukh
8:50-9:10 A REVIEW OF FALL/WINTER
OF 2000-01 AND THE ROLE OF THE SIBERIAN HIGH
Judah Cohen
9:10-9:30 ASSESSMENT OF THE 2001 CLIMATE AND WILDFIRE
SEASON
T. J. Brown, B. L. Hall and P. M. Schlobohm
9:30-9:50 RELATIONSHIP OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOISTURE
SURGES TO TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL WEATHER FEATURES DURING SUMMER 2000
AND 2001.
R. Maddox, V. Holbrook, and L. Farfan
9:50-10:00 BREAK
SESSION 2: ASSESSMENT OF PREDICTIONS IN 2000-01AND BEYOND
Chair: Bob Livezey
10:00-10:20 SKILL OF CPC OFFICIAL OUTLOOKS
H. M. van den Dool, J. Hoopingarner
10:20-10:40 USING AN MRF "RE-FORECAST" DATASET TO ASSESS
PREDICTABILITY AND IMPROVE FORECASTS
J. Whitaker and T. Hamill
10:40-11:00 VERIFICATION OF IRI'S SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS
L. Goddard, A. G. Barnston and S. J. Mason
11:00-11:20 PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF SEASONAL CLIMATE
PREDICTIONS WITH THE NEW NCEP CLIMATE GCM
J. E. Schemm, A. Kumar and M. Kanamitsu
11:20-11:40 THE 2000-2001 LA NINA PREDICTIONS OF THE ENSO
TRIGGER MODEL
A. J. Clarke, S. Van Gorder
11:40-12:40 LUNCH
12:40-2:40 POSTER SESSION 1:
FORECASTING & DECADAL VARIABILITY
SESSION 3: FORECASTING
Chair: Jeff Whitaker
2:40-3:00 SPACE-TIME
DOWNSCALING OF PROBABILISTIC SEASONAL FORECASTS WITH A "WEATHER GENERATOR"
D. Wilks
3:00-3:20 CPC FORECASTS, METHODS AND FUTURE
E. O'Lenic
3:20-3:40 DEVELOPMENTS IN MONTHLY AND SEASONAL FORECASTING
AT THE MET OFFICE
B. Becker
3:40-3:50 BREAK
3:50-4:10 A NEW TWO-TIERED PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR NORTH
AMERICA CLIMATE: HINDCAST SKILL
E. Yulaeva and N. Schneider
4:10-4:30 THE ROLE OF INITIAL AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS
FOR DYNAMICAL SEASONAL FORECASTING
T. J. Reichler, J. O. Roads, M. Kanamitsu
4:30-4:50 IRI'S MORE AUTOMATED CLIMATE PREDICTION SYSTEM
A. Barnston, Simon Mason, L. Goddard, B. Ragagapolan
and D. Dewitt
4:50-5:10 DOES HIGHER SIGNAL-TO-NOISE RATIO IN AGCM'S
IMPLY HIGHER PREDICTIVE SKILL?
A. Kumar, Peitao Peng and M. Hoerling
5:10-5:30 SIMULATION AND PREDICTION FROM COLA GLOBAL COUPLED
AND ANOMALY COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE GCM
Y. Fan and B. Kirtman
5:30-5:50 OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NCEP SEASONAL
FORECAST MODEL WITH HYBRID-PARALLELIZATION AND REDUCED GAUSSIAN GRID
H. Juang
5:50 Ice Breaker, Martin Johnson House (T29/Building
#8840)
Tuesday October 23
SESSION 4: DECADAL VARIABILITY
Chair: Stanley Goldenberg
7:40-8:00 MECHANISMS OF MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE CHANGE
W. Gray
8:00-8:20 STRATOSPHERIC HARBINGERS OF ANOMALOUS WEATHER
REGIMES
M. Baldwin and T. Dunkerton
8:20-8:40 ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
WINTERTIME WEATHER THAT DERIVES FROM THE DYNAMICAL COUPLING BETWEEN THE
TROPOSPHERIC AND STRATOSPHERIC CIRCULATIONS
D. Thompson, M. Baldwin, J. Wallace
8:40-9:00 THE ANNULAR MODE AS A FORCED RESPONSE TO DETERMINISTIC
CLIMATE CHANGE
M. Hoerling, J. Whitaker, A. Kumar and J. Hurrell
9:00-9:20 RECENT
TREND IN THE NAO AND ITS CONNECTION TO THE TROPICAL OCEANIC HEAT FLUX
A. Shabbar, K. Higuchi and C. Chen
9:20-9:40 CIRCUM-GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS, ENSO AND THE
NAO
G. Branstator
9:40-9:50 BREAK
SESSION 4: DECADAL VARIABILITY, continued
Chair: Marty Hoerling
9:50-10:10 A SIMPLE MODEL OF TROPICAL ATLANTIC DECADAL
CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, and J. C. H. Chiang
10:10-10:30 INTER-DECADAL VARIATIONS IN NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE STORM TRACKS
E. Chang
10:30-10:50 WILL CALIFORNIA STREAMFLOW TRENDS TOWARD EARLY
PEAK STREAMFLOW CONTINUE IN THE 21ST CENTURY?
N. Miller, K. Bashford and E. Strem
10:50-11:10 ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENSO AND GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE
A. Tsonis, A. Hunt, J. Elsner
11:10-11:30 FACTORS INFLUENCING THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE VARIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY
M. Chelliah
11:30-12:50 LUNCH
SESSION 5: INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY
Chair: Prashant Sardeshmukh
12:50-1:10 GETTING THE MOST FROM ENSO'S EFFECTS
P. Sardeshmukh, G. Compo and C. Penland
1:10-1:30 IMPACT OF SNOW VARIABILITY ON THE REMOTE RESPONSE
TO ENSO OVER NORTH AMERICA
F. Yang, A. Kumar, W. Wang, H. Juang and M. Kanamitsu
1:30-1:50 THE TRANSITION SEASONS: GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
SST-FORCED MODES OF THE ATMOSPHERE
D. Straus and T. del Sole
1:50-2:10 THE CRUCIAL ROLE OF THE SOUTHERN MID-LATITUDES
ON FORCING EXTREME EL-NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION EVENTS
D. Stephens and M. Lamond
2:10-2:30 AN ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSES OF DIFFERENCES IN
CIRCULATION PATTERNS DURING THE EL NINO WINTERS OF 1983 AND 1998.
M. Suarez, S. Schubert and P. Pegion
2:30-2:40 BREAK
SESSION 5: INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY, continued
Chair: Max Suarez
2:40-3:00 THREE MODES OF INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF
THE GREAT PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET
H. Helfand and S. Schubert
3:00-3:20 THE INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY IN THE GENESIS
LOCATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
H. Chia and C. Ropelewski
3:20-3:40 THE SEASONAL CYCLE AND THE TERMINATION OF EL
NINO
G. Vecchi and D. Harrison
3:40-4:00 A CLIMATOLOGY OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
OF THE ITCZ
C. Zhang and G. Gu
4:00-4:10 BREAK
SESSION 6: INTRA-SEASONAL VARIABILITY
Chair: Bill Lau
4:10-4:30 ANNUALLY VARYING IMPACTS OF TROPICAL HEATING
UPON EXTRA-TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL VARIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY
M. Newman, P. Sardeshmukh and C. Winkler
4:30-4:50 ROLE OF TROPICAL CONVECTION IN A CASE OF EXTREME
INTER-HEMISPHERIC ATMOSPHERIC MASS EXCHANGE
M. Carrerra and J. Gyakum
4:50-5:10 CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW AND SEASONAL CYCLE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH AMERICA
H. Wang and R. Fu
5:10-5:30 SEASONAL AND EPISODE EFFECT IN THE STOCHASTIC
MEMORY IN THE LOCAL CLIMATE SYSTEM
M. Timofeyeva, R. Craig, R. Livezey and W. Higgins
Wednesday October 24
SESSION 6: INTRA-SEASONAL VARIABILITY, continued
Chair: R. Wayne Higgins
7:40-8:00 MADDEN-JULIAN VARIABILITY
IN COUPLED MODELS
K. Sperber and CMIP co-authors
8:00-8:20 STATISTICAL REAL-TIME FORECASTS OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION
C. Jones, R. W. Higgins and J. Schemm
8:20-8:40 HYDROLOGICAL FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION DURING NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER
D. Myers and D. Waliser
8:40-9:00 DIAGNOSTICS AND STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OF PERSISTENT INTRA-SEASONAL SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES DURING NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE WINTERS, 1950-2000
B. Lyon
9:00-9:20 POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY
OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
D. Waliser, K.M. Lau, W. Stern and C. Jones
9:20-9:40 SIMULATION OF THE INTRA-SEASONAL OSCILLATION
IN A COUPLED INTERMEDIATE MODEL
S. Kemball-Cook and B. Wang
9:40-9:50 BREAK
SESSION 7: MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION
Chair: Chidong Zhang
9:50-10:10 ERROR GROWTH IN REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATION
USING RSM
S. Chen and H. Juang
10:10-10:30 COMPARISON OF SOME
STATISTICAL METHODS OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF ENSO
S. Mason and G. Mimmack
10:30-10:50 PREDICTABILITY
OF LONG TERM DROUGHT IN THE UNITED STATES GREAT PLAINS
S. Schubert, M. Suarez, P. Pegion
10:50-11:10 AN ANALYSIS OF ZONALLY-SYMMETRIC MODES OF
INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY DURING BOREAL SUMMER
M. Kistler S. Schubert, A. Kumar,and M. Suarez
11:10-11:30 INVERSE MODELING OF A MULTIPLICATIVE STOCHASTIC
SYSTEM
C. Penland
11:30-12:50 Lunch
12:50-2:50 POSTER SESSION 2:
DIAGNOSTICS AND MODELS
SESSION 7: MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION, continued
Chair: Chidong Zhang
2:50-3:10 PREDICTABILITY OF SST-FORCED SIGNALS IN ENSEMBLE
SIMULATIONS OF MULTIPLE AGCMS DURING 1997-1998
K. Jin, I. Kang, S. Schubert and J. Lee
3:10-3:30 NORTH ATLANTIC SST FORCING OF THE NAO AND THE
RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC EOF1
S. Peng
SESSION 8: COUPLED MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND PREDICTION
Chair: Kingtse Mo
3:30-3:50 PREDICTING WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN CLIMATE
N. Schneider and A. J. Miller
3:50-4:10 IMPROVING EQUATORIAL ZONAL CURRENTS WITH BALANCED
OCEAN-DATA ASSIMILATION
G. Burgers, M. Balmaseda, F. Vossepoel, G. van Oldenborgh
and P. van Leeuwen
4:10-4:30 THE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLING OF TIWS AND ITS
SEASONAL AND INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS
J.-Y. Yu and T. W. Liu
4:30-4:50 CALCULATING THE FASTEST GROWING MODES OF THE
COUPLED LAND-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM
H. M. van den Dool
Banquet 6:00
Thursday October 25
SESSION 9: PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST
Chair: John Janowiak
7:40-8:00 ATMOSPHERIC WATER BUDGETS FROM MESOSCALE MODEL
OUTPUT: ADVANTAGES AND DEFICIENCIES
E. Yarosh and W. Higgins
8:00-8:20 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THE STATISTICS OF PRECIPITATION EXTREMES IN THE
UNITED STATES
Y. Zhou and W. Higgins
8:20-8:40 SUB-REGIONAL VARIABILITY OF WINTER CLIMATE IN
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
A. Comrie and D. Brown
8:40-9:00 EVENT-BASED STUDY OF INTER-ANNUAL VARIATIONS
IN SUMMERTIME PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
B. Anderson
9:00-9:20 THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT PLAINS OUT-OF-PHASE SUMMER
PRECIPITATION RELATIONSHIP: IS THERE A RELIABLE CORRELATION?
G. Garfin, T. Pagano and R. Maddox
9:20-9:40 RAINFALL PATTERNS IN THE SOUTHWEST, OR: NEW
AND IMPROVED CLIMATE DIVISIONS TO MONITOR THE MONSOON
K. Wolter
9:40-9:50 BREAK
SESSION 10: PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY SOUTH AMERICA AND ELSEWHERE
Chair: Chet Ropelewski
9:50-10:10 CLIMATOLOGY OF EXTREME
PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE LA PLATA RIVER BASIN OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THEIR
RELATIONSHIP TO VARIATIONS IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET
B. Liebmann, G. Kiladis, C. Vera and C. Saulo
10:10-10:30 EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH AMERICA AND LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE PATTERNS IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
CONVERGENCE ZONE
L. Carvalho, C. Jones and B. Liebmann
10:30-10:50 THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC OCEAN
REGIONAL SST ON RAINFALL VARIABILITY IN SOUTHERN-CENTRAL SOUTH AMERICA
ON SEASONAL TIME SCALES
G. Berri and G. Bertossa
10:50-11:10 RECONSTRUCTION OF OCEANIC
PRECIPITATION: PRELIMINARY RESULTS
P. Xie, M. Chen, J. Janowiak
11:10-11:30 THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN
REGION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WATER BUDGET OF THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA
A. Mariotti, M. Struglia, N. Zeng, K.-M. Lau
11:30-11:50 THE VERTICAL
DISTRIBUTION OF LOCAL AND REMOTE SOURCES OF WATER FOR PRECIPITATION
M. Bosilovich
11:50-12:50 LUNCH
12:50-2:50 POSTER SESSION 3
MONSOONS, RAINFALL, HYDROLOGY, FIRE
SESSION 10: PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND ELSEWHERE
Chair: Chet Ropelewski
2:50-3:10 ENSEMBLE CANONICAL CORRELATION PRECIPITATION
OVER THE U.S.
K.-M. Lau and K.-M. Kim and S. P. Shen
3:10-3:30 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THE NEW YEARS
1997 FLOOD IN YOSEMITE VALLEY, CALIFORNIA-LESSONS FOR FORECASTABILITY AND
GLOBAL CHANGE
M. Dettinger
SESSION 11: DROUGHT MONITORING, DIAGNOSIS AND PREDICTION
Chair: D. Lettenmaier
3:30-3:50 DROUGHT MONITORING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES:
CHALLENGE AND OPPORTUNITY
K. Redmond
3:50-4:10 FORECASTING LONG-RANGE IMPLICATIONS OF THE 2001
DROUGHT FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN (APRIL 2001-SEPTEMBER 2001)
A. Hamlet, A. Wood, D. Lettenmaier
4:10-4:30 ONGOING DROUGHT IN SOUTHWEST ASIA: THE ROLE
OF LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THE TROPICAL OCEANS
M. Barlow, H. Cullen, B. Lyon
4:30-4:50 PREDICTABILITY OF SOIL WETNESS AND NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IN THE NCEP SEASONAL PREDICTION MODEL USING REANALYSIS-2 LAND
SURFACE ANALYSIS
M. Kanamitsu and C. Lu
4:50-5:10 THE IMPACT OF SOIL MOISTURE ON SUMMER
PRECIPITATION SIMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES
K. Mo, M. Kanamitsu and H. Juang
5:10-5:30 TOWARDS A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE
MIDLATITUDE PRECURSORS OF THE ASIAN MONSOON
S. Yang, K.-M. Lau, K. Miyakoda and J. Kinter
Friday October 26, 2001
SESSION 12: DIAGNOSIS AND PREDICTION OF THE AMERICAN MONSOONS
Chair: Siegfried Schubert
8:30-8:50 THE SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM AS DEPICTED
IN THE NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS
V. Kousky
8:50-9:10 POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY OF WARM SEASON PRECIPITATION
ANOMALIES ACROSS THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST
D. Gutzler
9:10-9:30 AN ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL STORM RAINFALL IN EASTERN
AND WESTERN MEXICO: DECADAL FLUCTUATIONS AND APPARENT OUT-OF-PHASE RELATIONSHIP
BETWEEN PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC STORM RAINFALL
A. Douglas and P. Englehart
9:30-9:50 VARIATIONS IN GLOBAL MONSOON SYSTEM PRECIPITATION
J. Janowiak, P. Xie and P. Arkin
9:50-10:00 BREAK
10:00-10:20 THE IMPACT OF SST ANOMALIES ON THE INTERANNUAL
VARIABILITY OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON
J. Farrara, J. Yu and J. Kim
10:20-10:40 FEATURES OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON DEPICTED
IN CPC's SEASONAL PREDICTION GCM RUNS
J. Schemm
10:40-11:00 THE LAND SURFACE MODEL IN THE NCEP REGIONAL
REANALYSIS: RECENT OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE AND UPGRADES AND INTERANNUAL
VARIABILITY IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MONSOON
K. Mitchell
11:00-11:20 SIMULATION OF THE
NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON IN DIFFERENT PACIFIC SST REGIMES USING RAMS
C. Castro
11:20-11:40 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAVY MONSOONAL
RAINS IN ARIZONA: MECHANISTIC IMPLICATIONS FROM MESOSCALE MODELING
D. Ivanova and D. Mitchell
11:40-12:00 THE GEWEX-GCIP AND THE GAPP: PAST AND FUTURE
EFFORTS TO ADDRESS CONTINENTAL CLIMATE SYSTEMS AND THEIR PREDICTABILITY
R. G. Lawford and Jin Huang
12:00-1:00 Lunch
SPECIAL SESSION.
The North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)
Chair: Wayne Higgins
1:00-1:05 WELCOME, AGENDA
W. Higgins
1:05-1:25 CLIVAR-PACS-NAME
PLANS
M. Patterson
1:25-1:45
GEWEX -GAPP-NAME PLANS
R. Lawford
NAME Field Campaign
1:45-2:00
THE NAME UPPER-AIR SOUNDING NETWORK
M. Douglas
2:00-2:15
SMN PARTICIPATION IN NAME; PEMEX, CFE CONTRIBUTIONS
M. Cortez
2:15-2:30
IMTA PARTICIPATION IN NAME; CONACYT, FLUX TOWER ARRAY
R. Lobato
2:30-2:45 MEASURING
AND MODELING TOPOGRAPHY DEPENDENT PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON
C. Watts,
J. Garatuza, D. Gochis and J. Shuttleworth
2:45-3:00
THE NAME WIND PROFILER / RADAR NETWORK; THE CSU CHILL RADAR
S. Rutledge
and R. Carbone
3:00-3:15 Break
3:15-3:30
PARTICIPOATION OF THE NOAA RESEARCH VESSEL RON BROWN IN NAME
S. Rutledge,
W. Petersen, and R. Cifelli
3:30-3:45
XBT'S IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA (1992-PRESENT)
S. Miranda
NAME Data Management Activities
3:45-4:00 UCAR/JOSS
- NAME PLANS; THE NAME FIELD CATALOG
S. Williams
and J. Meitin
NAME Modeling and Diagnostic Studies
4:00-4:15
THE NAME MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT (NAMIP)
D. Gutzler
4:15-4:30 GLOBAL
MODELING ACTIVITIES AND NAME
S. Schubert
4:30-4:45 MOISTURE
BUDGET OF THE IAS, ITS TRANSPORT AND THERI ROLES IN WARM-SEASON PRECIPITATION
C. Zhang
4:45-5:00
IRI WARM SEASON FORECASTS; NAME AND HUMAN
DIMENSIONS
C. Ropelewski
5:00-5:30 OPEN DISCUSSION (NAME WEB PAGE; NAME LOGO; 5th VAMOS PANEL MEETING)
5:30 ADJOURN
Monday 12:40-2:40 Poster Session I: Forecasting & Decadal Variability
Chair: Muthu Chelliah
P1.1 A NEW
EXPERIMENTAL SEASONAL PREDICTION TOOL
X. Quan,
J. Whitaker and M. Hoerling
P1.2
VALIDATION OF NSIPP TIER-2 SEASONAL FORECASTS: WHAT CAN WE GAIN FROM IMPROVED
SST FORECASTS?
P. Pegion,
S. Schubert and M. Suarez
P1.3 A NEW
ENSEMBLE CANONICAL CORRELATION PREDICTION SCHEME FOR SEASONAL PRECIPITATION
K. Kim,
W. Lau, G. Li and S. Shen
P1.4 SUPER
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OF MULTI-LEAD STATISTICAL PREDICTION SYSTEM BASED ON
THE COUPLED PATTERN PROJECTION AND OTHER STATISTICAL MODELS
J. Lee,
I. Kang and K. Jin
P1.5 LONG-LEAD
SEASONAL PROBABILISTIC FORECAST BY THE CPC'S CLIMATE MODEL
W. Chen
and M. Kanamitsu
P1.6 DYNAMICAL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTING OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH IN KOREA
W. Kwon
and J. Moon
P1.7 PREDICTION
OF TROPICAL PACIFIC SST FOR 2001 WITH THE NSIPP ENSO FORECASTING SYSTEM
A. Vinzileos,
M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, S. Miller and A. Borovikov
P1.8 EXPERIMENTAL
REAL-TIME SEASONAL HYDROLOGIC FORECASTING FOR THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN
A Wood,
A. Kumar and D. Lettenmaier
P1.9 ARCTIC
AND ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO AND AA) MONITORING USING NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS
H. Kim
and W. Higgins
P1.10 HAS
TROPICAL AIR MOVED NORTHWARD?
S. Zhou
and A. Miller
P1.11 A
NULL HYPOTHESIS FOR THE PDO
M. Newman,
C. Winkler and C. Penland
P1.12 INTER-DECADAL
CHANGES OF 30 YEAR SST NORMALS: CLIMATOLOGY AND STANDARD DEVIATION
Y. Xue,
T. Smith and R. Reynolds
P1.13 CLIMATE
CHANGE IN THE EAST ASIA REGION WITH DOUBLED ATMOSPHERIC CO2
CONCENTRATION
S. Baek,
J. Rhu, S. Ryoo and W. Kwon
P1.14 DECOMPOSITION
OF TREE-RING SERIES TO ESTIMATE THE NUMBER OF ANNUAL PHILIPPINE TYPHOONS
AND USA ATLANTIC HURRICANES
P. Baldazo,
T. Piechota, T. Acebes and A. Ramirez
P1.15 JOINT
ANALYSIS OF TRENDS IN SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PARAMETERS OF CLOUD LAYERS,
RECONSTRUCTED FROM CARDS OF 1964-2000 FOR HIGH LATITUDES OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
I. Chernhykh
and O. Alduchov
P1.16 ON
THE SENSITIVITY OF LINEAR TREND ESTIMATES IN THE SERIES OF UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURE
A. Sterin
P1.17
HOMOGENEOUS IN-SITU WIND DATA OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES: WHAT DO
THEY SAY ABOUT VARIATIONS OF NEAR-SURFACE WIND FIELD DURING THE PAST 50
YEARS?
P. Groisman
and H. Barker
P1.18 TRENDS
OF WATER VAPOR AND EARTH RADIATION BUDGET FROM NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS
S. Yang,
M. Kanamitsu, W. Ebisuzaki and A. Miller
P1.19
NOAA NWS OCWWS CLIMATE SERVICES DIVISION ACTIONS IN EDUCATION AND TRAINING
M. Timofeyeva,
R. Livezey, K. Weickmann and J. Koepsell
P1.20
SEASONAL FORECASTS OF ANOMALOUS OCEAN CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
G. Auad,
A. Miller, J. Roads and W. White
Wednesday 12:50-2:50 Poster Session II: Diagnostics & Models
Chair: Wayne Higgins
P2.1 TECHNIQUES
FOR FURTHER DIAGNOSTIC APPLICATIONS OF THERMAL AIR TIDES
J. Scheaffer
P2.2 DIAGNOSES
OF EFFECTIVE CUMULUS ENTRAINMENT FOR LARGE-SCALE MODELS
B. Mapes
P2.3 THE
PROPAGATION MECHANISM OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
K. Seo
and K. Kim
P2.4 MECHANISM
OF LOCKING OF THE EL NINO AND LA NINA MATURE PHASES TO BOREAL WINTER
S. An and
B. Wang
P2.5 THE
PHYSICAL MECHANISM OF THE BIENNIAL MODE IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
K.-Y. Kim
P2.6 MESO-SCALE
ENSO TELECONNECTIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
L. Leung
and A. Hunt
P2.7 THE
STRENGTH AND VARIABILITY OF DIABATIC AND LATENT HEATING RATES
C. Winkler,
M. Newman and P. Sardeshmukh
P2.8 SENSITIVITY
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NSIPP-1 AGCM TO CONVECTIVE MICROPHYSICS
J. Bacmeister,
M. Suarez and M. Kistler
P2.9 VALIDATION
OF CCM3 WITH SUBGRID LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS
A. Hunt
and S. Ghan
P2.10 TROPICAL
STORMS IN ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
S. Camargo,
S. Zebiak and L. Goddard
P2.11 PCMDI'S
CLIMATE DATA ANALYSIS TOOL (CDAT): AN INTERACTIVE DEMONSTRATION
C. Doutriaux,
D. Williams and PCMDI's software team
P2.12 THE
IMPORTANCE OF SALINITY IN THE ASSIMILATION OF TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS
IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN
A. Troccoli
and M. Rienecker
P2.13 TROPICAL
FORCING OF NORTH PACIFIC DECADAL VARIABILITY EXPLORED USING A GCM ENSEMBLE
J. Norris
and T. Beitzel
P2.14 THE
CLIMATOLOGY OF AIR-SEA INTERACTIONS IN NSIPP'S COUPLED SIMULATIONS
M. Rienecker,
S. Miller, A. Vintzileos, M. Suarez and J. Bacmeister
P2.15 MODES
OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY VARIABILITY AND TROPICAL SST FORCING
P. Peng,
A. Kumar and M. Kanamitsu
P2.16 SIGNAL-T0-NOISE
RATIO OPTIMIZATION: STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTION AND CONFIDENCE LIMITS
D. Straus
and T. Del Sole
P2.17 COMPARISONS
BETWEEN NCAR/REANALYSIS AND CARDS/MONADS MONTHLY DATA: A DETAILED ASSESSMENT
FOR UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
V. Khan,
K. Rubinshtein, and A. Sterin
P2.18 INFLUENCE
OF INCREASED CO2 ON REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
J. Han
and J. Roads
P2.19 IMPACTS
OF MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATIONS ON U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DURING
ENSO-NEUTRAL AND WEAK ENSO WINTERS
Y. Xue,
R.W. Higgins, H.-K. Kim and V. Kousky
Thursday 12:50-2:50 Poster Session III: Monsoons, Rainfall, Hydrology, Fire
Chair: Jae Schemm
P3.1 THE
IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON REGIONAL RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE
EXTREMES
Y. Chang
and S. Schubert
P3.2 SEASONAL
EVOLUTION OF THE NORTH PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE LINKAGE WITH ADJACENT
MONSOONS
H. Wang
and M. Ting
P3.3 SOUTH
ASIAN MONSOON AND TROPOSPHERIC BIENNIAL OSCILLATION
N. Vjazilova
P3.4 REAL-TIME
MONITORING OF WEATHER-CLIMATE LINKAGE
Y. Zhou,
W. Higgins and H. Kim
P3.5 ARCTIC
AND ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO AND AA) MONITORING USING NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS
H. Kim
and W. Higgins
P3.6 PRINCIPAL
COMPONENT ANALYSIS OF INTER-MONTHLY PATTERNS OF POINT MUGU, CALIFORNIA
AND CALIFORNIA CLIMATIC DIVISION PRECIPITATION
C. Fisk
P3.7 REGIONAL
SIMULATION OF THE SUMMERTIME HYDROLOGIC CYCLE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES
B. Anderson
and J. Roads
P3.8 THE
POTENTIAL OF TREE-RING D18O AS A PROXY FOR MEAN NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DURING AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON
W. Wright,
and S. Leavitt
P3.9 INGESTING
SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS OF CLOUD COVER INTO THE PSU/NCAR MESOSCALE MODEL
(MM5) AND ITS IMPACTS ON MODELED SURFACE PRECIPITATION
I. Yucel,
W. Shuttleworth, X. Gao and S. Sorooshian
P3.10 BAY
OF BENGAL SUB-SEASONAL SST VARIABILITY AND THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN MONSOON
G. Vecchi
P3.11 LARGE-SCALE
VALIDATION Of AMIP II LAND-SURFACE SIMULATIONS: PRELIMINARY RESULTS
T. Phillips,
P. Irannejad, A. Henderson-Sellers, K. McGuffie, E. Clayton and S. Sharmeen
P3.12 DROUGHT
MONITORING ACTIVITIES IN NCDC'S CLIMATE MONITORING BRANCH
S. Stephens,
K. Gleason, R. Heim Jr., and J. Lawrimore
P3.13 A
LONG-TERM LAND SURFACE HYDROLOGIC DATA SET FOR THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
E. Maurer,
A. Wood and D. Lettenmaier
P3.14 SEASONAL
STREAMFLOW PREDICTIONS FROM GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES: APPLICATIONS
TO MEHAWELI RIVER IN SRI LANKA
Lareef
Zubair
P3.15 THE
GEWEX-GCIP AND THE GAPP: PAST AND FUTURE EFFORTS TO ADDRESS CONTINENTAL
CLIMATE SYSTEMS AND THEIR PREDICTABILITY
P3.16 COMMUNICATING
EXPERIMENTAL FLORIDA DRY SEASON FORECASTS AND REGIONALIZED CLIMATIC INFORMATION
TO USERS VIA THE INTERNET
P3.17 ASSESSING
LONG-TERM FIRE DANGER VARIABILITY AND CHANGE FROM CLIMATE MODEL OUTPUT
R. G. Lawford
and Jin Huang
B. Hagemeyer,
D. Sharp and D. Jacobs
T. Brown
and B. Hall