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HOME > Outreach > Meetings > 31st Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop Agenda
 
 
Program for the 31st Annual Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop
Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL)
Boulder, October 23-27, 2006
 
Monday, October 23, 2006
8:00 am - 8:30 am Registration  
8:30 am - 8:40 am Opening Remarks Robin Webb, NOAA/ESRL
8:40 am - 8:50 am Opening Remarks Jim Laver; NOAA/CPC
8:50am - 9:00 am Opening Remarks Louis Uccellini; NOAA/NCEP
Session 1: An Assessment of Observed Climate for 2005/2006
Chairperson: Tony Barnston
9:00 am – 9:30 am A Review of Monthly/Seasonal Climate Variability for 2005-2006 Vern Kousky; NCEP/CPC
9:30 am – 10:00 am A Review 2005-2006 Extreme Events Klaus Weickmann; NOAA/ESRL
10:00 am -10:30 am Coffee
Session 2: An Assessment of Climate Predictions for 2005/2006
Chairperson: Klaus Weickmann
10:30 am -10:50 am A Review of 2005 & 2006 Hurricane Season and Forecasts Muthuvel Chelliah; NCEP/CPC
10:50 am -11:10 am A Review of 2005/2006 US drought monitor and outlook Doug LeComte; NCEP/CPC
11:10 am -11:30 am A Review of 2005/2006 ENSO Predictions Tony Barnston; IRI
11:30 am -11:50 am A Review of forecast skill of 2005/2006 US Long-Range Predictions Ed O’Lenic; NCEP/CPC
11:50 am 121:10 pm A Review of Bureau of Meteorology Forecasts for Australia; A. Watkins; National Climate Centre, BoM
12:10 pm -12:30 pm Discussion on Forecast Performance
12:30pm -1:30 pm Lunch
Session 3 (CTB Session 1): Improvements in the CFS
Chairperson: Jae Schemm; NOAA/CPC
1:30 pm - 2:00 pm Recent Developments with the new the CFS Suru Saha; NCEP/EMC
2:00 pm - 2:30 pm The Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) at NCEP Dave Behringer; NCEP/EMC
2:30 pm - 3:00 pm Initialization of NOAH LSM and its Coupling to CFS Ken Mitchell; NCEP/EMC
3:00 pm - 3:30 pm Coffee
3:30 pm - 4:00 pm NCEP CFS ENSO Characteristics and Impact of Atmsopheric Stochastic Forcing on ENSO Xue; NCEP/CPC
4:00 pm - 4:30 pm NCEP CFS Model Bias Associated with Marine Stratus Clouds over Southeastern Pacific Xie; NCEP/CPC
4:30pm - 5:00 pm Diurnal Cycle over the Great Plains in CFS Siegfried Schubert; NASA/GMAO
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
Session 4 (CTB Session 2): Improvements in the Official Climate Outlooks
Chairperson: Ed O'Lenic; NOAA/CPC
8:30 am - 8:55 am Consolidation of multi method Seasonal Forecasts at CPC Huug van den Dool; NOAA/CPC
8:55 am - 9:20 am Objective Verification of CPC Forecasts Mike Halpert ; NOAA/CPC
9:20 am - 10:50 am Coffee & Poster Session 1: NOAA Climate Testbed
10:50 am - 11:15 am Estimation and Extrapolation of Climatic Trends for Evaluation and Prediction of Climatic Anomalies Robert Livezey; NWS/CSD
11:15 am - 11:40 am A Strategy Using Long-range Forecast Products as Input to NOAA’s Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System John Schaake; NWS/OD
11:40 am - 12:05 pm Firedanger Applications of NCEP's Downscaled CFS Forecasts John Roads; SIO
12:05 pm - 12:30 pm Development of a tool for Downscaling of Operational Climate Forecasts to Regional and Local Fire Indices N. Molders; U. Alaska
12:30 pm - 1:30 pm Lunch
Session 5 (CTB Session 3): Application of Climate Forecast Products and User Requirements
Chairperson:
1:30 pm - 1:55 pm Setting Priorities for Development of New and Improved Climate Products J. J. O'Brien; FSU
1:55 pm - 2:20 pm Developing Improved Climate Products for Effective Climate Risk Management C. Roplewski; IRI
2:20 pm - 2:45 pm How to best package climate products for users Holly Hartmann; U. Arizona
2:45 pm - 3:15 pm Coffee
3:15 pm - 3:40 pm Making Climate Products Digestable Kelly Redmond; DRI
3:40pm - 4:05 pm Assessing the Value of Seasonal Forecasts for the Panama Canal Nicholas Graham; SIO
4:05 pm - 4:30 pm Climate Services: The Pacific Climate Information System (PaCIS) Approach Eileen Shea; U. Hawaii
4:30 pm - 5:30 pm Panel Discussion
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
Session 6: Detection and Attribution of Climate Variability and Trends
Chairperson: Robin Webb; NOAA/ESRL
8:30 am - 9:00 am Charge to the Attribution Session Marty Hoerling; NOAA/ESRL
9:00 am - 9:40 am Explaining Changes in Extreme US Climate Events Gerry Meehl; NCAR
9:40 am - 10:20 am Explaining US Precipitation and Temperature Trends Imke Durre; NOAA/NCDC
10:20 am - 10:50 am Coffee
10:50 am -11:30 am Explaining the Origins of North American Drought Richard Seager; LDEO
11:30 am -12:10 pm Explaining Recent Increases in Atlantic Hurricane Activity Kevin Trenberth; NCAR
12:10 pm - 1:30 pm Lunch
1:30 pm - 3:30 pm Coffee + Poster Session 2: Detection and Attribution
3:30 pm - 5:30 pm Panel Discussion; Panelists: Meehl; Santer; Seager; Trenberth; Hoerling; Schubert; Ingram; Graffin
7:00 pm - 8:30 pm Banquet; Speaker: Chet Koblinsky; Director; NOAA Climate Program Office
Thursday, October 26, 2006
Session 7: Session 7: Prediction and Predictability of Climate Variability
Chairperson: Randy Dole; NOAA/ESRL
8:30 am - 9:00 am Charge to the Prediction Session Huug van den Dool; NOAA/CPC
9:00 am - 9:40 am Predictability and Predictions of Week-2 to Monthly Tom Hamill; NOAA/ESRL
9:40 am - 10:20 am Predictability and Predictions of Seasonal Means Lisa Goddard; IRI
10:20 am - 10:50 am Coffee
10:50 am -11:30 am Predictability and Predictions of decadal trends Tom Delworth; GFDL
11:30 am -12:10 pm Predictability and Predictions of ENSO Ben Kirtman; COLA
12:10 pm - 1:30 pm Lunch
1:30 pm - 3:30 pm Coffee & Poster Session 3: Predictability and Predictions
3:30 pm - 5:30 pm Panel Discussion: Panelists: Hamill, Goddard, Delworth, Kirtman, Kumar, Penland; Udall; Hartmann
Friday, October 27, 2006
8:30 am - 9:00 am Summary and Recommendation from Panel on Attribution
9:00 am - 10:00 am Discussion
10:00 am - 10:30 am Coffee
10:30 am - 11:00 am Summary and Recommendation from Panel on Prediction
11:00 am - 12:00 Discussion
12:00 - 12:30 pm Expectations for the Next Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

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