Abstract

Seasonal climate forecasting have become operational in many countries in the last approximately 10 years, receiving impetus in part from the 1997/98 El Nino, and enabled to a large part by extensive capacity building efforts linked to Regional Climate Outlook Fora (COFs). Although these developments should be seen as a great positive, numerous methodological issues have arisen in developing forecasts with good reliability. Problems arising from artificial skill, even with cross-validation, problems of reliably estimating uncertainty, and practical problems of generating forecasts under severe resource constraints, have all had to be addressed in order to progress towards developing reliable and skillful forecasts. In this presentation some of these methodological problems will be detailed, and some proposed solutions, many of which have been packaged into a software tool called the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), developed and distributed by the IRI, will discussed.

The security procedures to all interested non-NOAA attendees  for entry into WWB are: You need to give your name, affiliation, and phone #  to the security at the front desk when you arrive.  You need to have a valid photo ID upon entry.  Moreover,  you need to be accompanied during your stay here. I am sorry for the inconvenience.  It may help to make a printout of this announcement and show to the guards for your purpose of visit when u come. If u are interested in giving a seminar at CPC, or for further information, please call (301-763-8000 ext. 7546) or email me (Muthuvel.Chelliah@noaa.gov).

Directions from Washington Beltway 495: Take exit 7B (Branch Ave), make a right at first signal, and the building is immediately on your left.