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Forecasting Cotton yields over the southeastern US using NCEP Coupled Forecast System
Guillermo A. Baigorria

Agricultural & Biological Engg. Dept., Univ. of Florida
Also affiliated with the SouthEast Climate Consortium (SECC)
(Visiting Scientist to the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP)

Date:  Thursday, August 9, 2007
Time:  2:00 PM
Place:   Room 707, NOAA Science Center
            5200 Auth Road
            Camp Springs, MD 20746


Making monthly and seasonal climate forecasts potentially useful to farmers and agriculturists remains a major challenge. Beyond their experience, intuition and climatological information, farmers can take advantage of critical seasonal climate forecasts and information that may actually help them with their crop management (i.e. planting, control of pest and diseases) and insurance decisions.

The partnership between the Climate Prediction Center and the Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) took the challenge made by the NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) to use the improved NOAA climate forecast products to help enhance decision making capabilities of farmers and agriculturists in the south eastern United States. Previous research indicated some potential of predicting cotton yields over the southeastern United States based on regional atmospheric circulation in the upper troposphere and surface temperatures. A brief review of the useful teleconnections that were found using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the earlier results of the predictability of cotton yields based on ECHAM 4.5 forecasts but using observed sea surface temperatures will be made. In this study, the ability of NCEP's Coupled Forecast System's (CFS) retrospective forecasts of 500 hPa heights during February to September to hindcast de-trended cotton yields in Alabama and Georgia from 1980 to 2004 is investigated. Possible use of real time CFS forecasts to the cotton yields in the south eastern United States will be explored.

The security procedures to all interested non-NOAA attendees  for entry into WWB are: You need to give your name, affiliation, and phone #  to the security at the front desk when you arrive.  You need to have a valid photo ID upon entry.  Moreover,  you need to be accompanied during your stay here. I am sorry for the inconvenience.  It may help to make a printout of this announcement and show to the guards for your purpose of visit when u come. If u are interested in giving a seminar at CPC, or for further information, please call (301-763-8000 ext. 7546) or email me (

Directions from Washington Beltway 495: Take exit 7B (Branch Ave), make a right at first signal, and the building is immediately on your left.


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Page last modified: August 6, 2007
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