Abstract

Using the example of some recent developments in a version of the COLA coupled climate model it is demonstrated how some rather trivial changes to the parameterization scheme of shallow inversion clouds can cause initially unintended but posteriorly logical repercussions on the coupled simulations. Given that we are progressing towards earth system modeling that involves adding components of the climate to an AGCM it is argued that un-anticipated sensitivities of the earth’s climate simulation may become the norm of the current and possibly future climate-modeling frameworks. Therefore, it is possible that dynamical-coupled climate models of the present and of the future could be residing at the edge of a cliff that separates abysmal from reasonable simulation of the mean and the variable climate. The talk will also discuss how discontinuities in physical parameterizations can get further amplified as a result of the model discretization.

The mean equatorial Pacific climate and its ENSO variability at interannual scales will be used as the basis for this discussion. The notion of testing parameterization schemes and tuning of the model in a coupled framework will also be emphasized. Furthermore, several untested and seemingly "mundane" sources of uncertainty in the coupled modeling system will also be pointed out.

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