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HOME > Outreach > CPC Seminars
Multi-Model ENSO Prediction Using CFS and CCSM3
CTB Joint SEMINAR Series
Theme: CFS as a Prediction System and Research Tool
Climate Test Bed (CTB)
Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA)
Ben Kirtman

University of Miami (RSMAS) & Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA)

Date:  Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Time:  2:00 AM
Place:   Room 707, NOAA Science Center
            5200 Auth Road
            Camp Springs, MD 20746


Results are described from a large sample of coupled ocean–atmosphere retrospective forecasts during 1980–2006. The prediction system is based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3.0) and a state-of-the-art ocean data assimilation system made available by the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The retrospective forecasts are initialized each January and July of each year, and ensembles of six forecasts are run for each initial month, yielding a total of 324 1-yr predictions. In generating the ensemble members, perturbations are added to the atmospheric initial state only. The skill of the prediction system is analyzed from both a deterministic and a probabilistic perspective and is compared to the operation NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS). The CCSM3.0 SSTA forecasts have notable westward phase propagation, which is consistent with the errors in the “free running” model. The CCSM3.0 forecasts appear to do a better job than CFS on the transition from warm to cold SSTA. This is probably due to the fact that the CFS tends to persist warm events longer than observed. The CCSM3.0 also appears to be more confident than CFS in forecasting cold events. In terms of Nino3.4 forecast skill, both models have comparable skill that appears to be complementary. Most importantly, combining both models into a multi-model ensemble is superior to either model individually.

The security procedures to all interested non-NOAA attendees  for entry into WWB are: You need to give your name, affiliation, and phone #  to the security at the front desk when you arrive.  You need to have a valid photo ID upon entry.  Moreover,  you need to be accompanied during your stay here. I am sorry for the inconvenience.  It may help to make a printout of this announcement and show to the guards for your purpose of visit when u come. If u are interested in giving a seminar at CPC, or for further information, please call (301-763-8000 ext. 7546) or email me (

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