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HOME > Outreach > Meetings > 33rd Annual Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop > Abstracts
 

Review of Recent Climate Conditions and Forecasts
Abstract

 

Abstract Author: Erwin Makmur

Abstract Title: Analyze of climate change In Java as impact global warming

Abstract: Meteorological and Geophysical Agency (BMG) of Indonesia releases two kinds of Seasonal Forecasts every year namely Dry Season Forecast which is released every early March and Rainy Season Forecast which is released every early September.

Based on classified monthly average rainfall distribution pattern, BMG identifies whole Indonesia region as follows:

  • Area which has noticeable difference between the dry and rainy seasons according to the seasonal criteria, namely Seasonal Area (SA).

  • Area which has no clear difference between the dry and rainy seasons according to the seasonal criteria, namely Non Seasonal Area (Non SA).

Onset of Dry Season is determined based on the cumulative rainfall within 10 (ten) days is less than 50 millimeters successively. The onset of dry season is probably earlier, equal, or late than normal.

Onset of Rainy Season is determined based on the cumulative rainfall is equal or more than 50 millimeters successively. The onset of rainy season is probably occur earlier, equal, or late than normal.

Dasarian are time period for ten days. It is divided into 3 (three) "dasarian", i.e. : 1st "dasarian" from 1st date until 10th date, 2nd "dasarian" from 11th date until 20th date and 3rd "dasarian" from 21st date until the end of the month.

The Cumulative Rainfall Respectives to Normal is comparison of cumulative rainfall during particularly period (one rainy season period or one dry season period) and normal, It is divided into 3 (three) categories, i.e.:

  • Above Normal (AN) if the cumulative rainfall is greater than 115% toward the average

  • Normal (N) if the cumulative rainfall is between 85% and 115% toward the average

  • Below Normal (BN) if the cumulative rainfall is smaller than 85% toward the average

Climate condition in Indonesia depends on the atmosphere dynamics condition such as monsoon circulation and the sea surface temperature over Indonesia pool, it is also influenced by regional and global climate phenomenon

Based on normal data (average 1950 2000), we analyze that area over the Java island have changed for long period of season (dry and wet season), the onset of season, and cumulative rainfall within particularly period.


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