CFSv2 Northern Hemsphere Atmospheric Blocking

The hovmoller plots shown below are the blocking strength from observation (CFSr) and 16 members ensembles of CFSv2 45-day forcast daily 500 hPa height. All colored regions in the plot show regions where the flow is blocked according to the blocking index from Tibaldi and Molteni (1990). The blocking strength is defined as the southern 500 hPa geopotential height gradient with unit of [m/(deg of latitude)] (denoted as GHGS in blocking index definition). The blocking index calculation in detail can be found in this page.

Forecast

Verification

CFSv2 Forecast of Monthly Climate Anomalies for

This page provides monthly climate anomalies from the NCEP version 2 coupled forecast system model (CFSv2) forecsts for next month. The forecasts shown in the following figures are ensemble means of the most recent 16 members (00z today -- 06z yesterday), when all these 16 members have full month forecast for next month. For those days when only 7 of the most recent 16 members have full month forecast for next month, 21 members from the most recent 3 days in the current month are included (however, for the forecasts from the 1st and 2nd day of current month, only 7 or 14 members are included,respectively). All the monthly anomalies are based on the climatology from entire hindcast period (1982-2010) without any adjustment. The figures are updated daily before 8:00am.

CFSv2 hindcast monthly mean skill

	SST	Prec	T2m	z200	z700	US Prec		US T2m
Initial Condition	Anomaly	Anomaly	Anomaly	Anomaly	Anomaly	Anomaly	Probability	Anomaly	Probability
Oct. 02, 2013
Oct. 01, 2013

	US Prec			US T2m
	anomaly	probability	skill	anomaly	probability	skill
Nov. 2013 from Oct. 2013 initial conditions			skill201311			skill201311
Oct. 2013 from Sep. 2013 initial conditions			skill201310			skill201310
Sep. 2013 from Aug. 2013 initial conditions			skill201309			skill201309
Aug. 2013 from Jul. 2013 initial conditions
Jul. 2013 from Jun. 2013 initial conditions
Jun. 2013 from May. 2013 initial conditions
May. 2013 from Apr. 2013 initial conditions
Apr. 2013 from Mar. 2013 initial conditions
Mar. 2013 from Feb. 2013 initial conditions
Feb. 2013 from Jan. 2013 initial conditions
Jan. 2013 from Dec. 2012 initial conditions
Dec. 2012 from Nov. 2012 initial conditions
Nov. 2012 from Oct. 2012 initial conditions
Oct. 2012 from Sep. 2012 initial conditions
Sep. 2012 from Aug. 2012 initial conditions
Aug. 2012 from Jul. 2012 initial conditions
Jul. 2012 from Jun. 2012 initial conditions
Jun. 2012 from May. 2012 initial conditions
May. 2012 from Apr. 2012 initial conditions
Apr. 2012 from Mar. 2012 initial conditions
Mar. 2012 from Feb. 2012 initial conditions
Feb. 2012 from Jan. 2012 initial conditions
Jan. 2012 from Dec. 2011 initial conditions
Dec. 2011 from Nov. 2011 initial conditions
Nov. 2011 from Oct. 2011 initial conditions
Oct. 2011 from Sep. 2011 initial conditions
Sep. 2011 from Aug. 2011 initial conditions
Aug. 2011 from Jul. 2011 initial conditions
Jul. 2011 from Jun. 2011 initial conditions