HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was +1.67 for NDJ2009, an increase from OND.
The CA method, acting on global NDJ2009 seasonal means as latest input forecasts the 3 mo running mean anomaly for Nino34 to stay in El Nino territory thru FMA, with most members well in excess of +1.0C but none above 1.5C for three month means. In short a clear warm event followed by a cool-off later in 2010, with –ve Nino34 anomalies possible by summer.
Expect large weight changes next month when the covariance matrix increase by one
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string DJF2009 thru NDJ2009). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2008 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2008). Data currently thru Jan 2010.
|
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
|
1956 |
xx |
-6 |
1966 |
xx |
1 |
1976 |
xx |
4 |
1986 |
xx |
-5 |
1996 |
xx |
4 |
2006 |
xx |
13 |
|
1957 |
xx |
11 |
1967 |
xx |
2 |
1977 |
xx |
12 |
1987 |
xx |
-2 |
1997 |
xx |
1 |
2007 |
xx |
6 |
|
1958 |
xx |
3 |
1968 |
xx |
11 |
1978 |
xx |
-4 |
1988 |
xx |
7 |
1998 |
xx |
-4 |
2008 |
xx |
1 |
|
1959 |
xx |
-7 |
1969 |
xx |
0 |
1979 |
xx |
3 |
1989 |
xx |
4 |
1999 |
xx |
-8 |
2009 |
xx |
NA |
|
1960 |
xx |
-3 |
1970 |
xx |
1 |
1980 |
xx |
-1 |
1990 |
xx |
10 |
2000 |
xx |
-4 |
xx |
xx |
|
|
1961 |
xx |
-8 |
1971 |
xx |
-11 |
1981 |
xx |
-5 |
1991 |
xx |
13 |
2001 |
xx |
12 |
xx |
xx |
|
|
1962 |
xx |
-7 |
1972 |
xx |
8 |
1982 |
xx |
-3 |
1992 |
xx |
-8 |
2002 |
xx |
20 |
xx |
xx |
|
|
1963 |
xx |
0 |
1973 |
xx |
8 |
1983 |
xx
|
-3 |
1993 |
xx |
-8 |
2003 |
xx |
9 |
xx |
xx |
|
|
1964 |
xx |
-12 |
1974 |
xx |
-3 |
1984 |
xx |
-15 |
1994 |
xx |
8 |
2004 |
xx |
10 |
xx |
xx |
|
|
1965 |
xx |
9 |
1975 |
xx |
1 |
1985 |
xx |
2 |
1995 |
xx |
0 |
2005 |
xx |
4 |
xx |
xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2006,2004,2002,2001,1991,1990,1977,1968,1957. Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1984,1971,1964.
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
|
1.67 |
1.59 |
1.26 |
0.68 |
0.34 |
0.15 |
0.09 |
-0.02 |
-0.15 |
-0.26 |
-0.25 |
-0.23 |
-0.21 |
-0.22 |
-0.19 |
-0.06 |
0.12 |
0.19 |
0.19 |
0.1 |
0.14 |
|
NDJ |
JFM10 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON10 |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS11 |
One month ago:
|
1.45 |
1.44 |
1.29 |
0.91 |
0.58 |
0.32 |
0.17 |
0.14 |
0.07 |
-0.03 |
-0.1 |
-0.06 |
-0.03 |
-0.14 |
-0.2 |
-0.22 |
-0.1 |
0.06 |
0.1 |
0.07 |
-0.03 |
|
NDJ |
JFM10 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON10 |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ11 |
Two months ago:
|
1.14 |
1.17 |
1.21 |
1.07 |
0.84 |
0.57 |
0.37 |
0.25 |
0.18 |
0.06 |
-0.04 |
-0.1 |
-0.06 |
-0.13 |
-0.19 |
-0.25 |
-0.26 |
-0.13 |
0.02 |
0.08 |
0.07 |
|
SON |
NDJ |
JFM10 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
||||||||||
|
Three months ago |
||||||||||||||||||||
|
son09 |
ndj |
jfm10 |
mam |
mjj10 |
jas |
son10 |
ndj |
jfm11 |
mam |
mam |
||||||||||
|
0.79 |
0.84 |
1.02 |
1.18 |
1.08 |
0.87 |
0.64 |
0.46 |
0.31 |
0.2 |
0.01 |
-0.14 |
-0.21 |
-0.26 |
-0.24 |
-0.28 |
-0.29 |
-0.24 |
-0.1 |
0.05 |
0.08 |
Anomalies relative to
1971-2000 climo.