HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was +1.29 for JFM2009, a noticeable decrease from DJF (1.54).
The CA method, acting on global JFM2010 seasonal means as latest input forecasts the 3 mo running mean anomaly for Nino34 to stay in El Nino territory thru MAM, followed by a rapid cool-off later in 2010, with –ve Nino34 anomalies by summer, and 80% of the members in La Nina territory by the fall.
Weight have been shifting around. More years with high –ve weight. And fewer years with high +ve weight, except exceptionally high positive weight for 2003 and not far behind 1969.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string FMA2009 thru JFM2010). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2009 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2009). Data currently thru Mar 2010.
|
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
|
1956 |
xx |
-1 |
1966 |
xx |
5 |
1976 |
xx |
-2 |
1986 |
xx |
-3 |
1996 |
xx |
10 |
2006 |
xx |
0 |
|
1957 |
xx |
-15 |
1967 |
xx |
1 |
1977 |
xx |
-1 |
1987 |
xx |
-1 |
1997 |
xx |
0 |
2007 |
xx |
8 |
|
1958 |
xx |
9 |
1968 |
xx |
-4 |
1978 |
xx |
4 |
1988 |
xx |
9 |
1998 |
xx |
6 |
2008 |
xx |
1 |
|
1959 |
xx |
3 |
1969 |
xx |
19 |
1979 |
xx |
-5 |
1989 |
xx |
3 |
1999 |
xx |
-8 |
2009 |
xx |
1 |
|
1960 |
xx |
-13 |
1970 |
xx |
8 |
1980 |
xx |
-4 |
1990 |
xx |
4 |
2000 |
xx |
-3 |
2010 |
xx |
NA |
|
1961 |
xx |
-8 |
1971 |
xx |
8 |
1981 |
xx |
-3 |
1991 |
xx |
8 |
2001 |
xx |
0 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1962 |
xx |
-1 |
1972 |
xx |
-5 |
1982 |
xx |
-9 |
1992 |
xx |
5 |
2002 |
xx |
15 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1963 |
xx |
-3 |
1973 |
xx |
8 |
1983 |
xx
|
-4 |
1993 |
xx |
-1 |
2003 |
xx |
22 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1964 |
xx |
0 |
1974 |
xx |
2 |
1984 |
xx |
-6 |
1994 |
xx |
-12 |
2004 |
xx |
3 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1965 |
xx |
-15 |
1975 |
xx |
2 |
1985 |
xx |
-13 |
1995 |
xx |
8 |
2005 |
xx |
5 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2003,2002,1996,1969. Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1994,1985,1965,1960,1957.
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
|
1.29 |
1.11 |
0.62 |
-0.07 |
-0.26 |
-0.43 |
-0.56 |
-0.69 |
-0.77 |
-0.89 |
-0.97 |
-0.94 |
-0.81 |
-0.56 |
-0.29 |
-0.11 |
0.04 |
0.1 |
0.27 |
0.41 |
0.53 |
|
JFM10 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON11 |
One month ago:
|
1.54 |
1.4 |
0.98 |
0.31 |
0.06 |
-0.04 |
-0.15 |
-0.28 |
-0.4 |
-0.43 |
-0.45 |
-0.47 |
-0.44 |
-0.36 |
-0.2 |
0 |
0.12 |
0.21 |
0.21 |
0.29 |
0.36 |
|
JFM10 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON10 |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
|||||||||||
|
Two months ago: |
||||||||||||||||||||
|
1.67 |
1.59 |
1.26 |
0.68 |
0.34 |
0.15 |
0.09 |
-0.02 |
-0.15 |
-0.26 |
-0.25 |
-0.23 |
-0.21 |
-0.22 |
-0.19 |
-0.06 |
0.12 |
0.19 |
0.19 |
0.1 |
0.14 |
|
NDJ |
JFM10 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON10 |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS11 |
Three month ago:
|
1.45 |
1.44 |
1.29 |
0.91 |
0.58 |
0.32 |
0.17 |
0.14 |
0.07 |
-0.03 |
-0.1 |
-0.06 |
-0.03 |
-0.14 |
-0.2 |
-0.22 |
-0.1 |
0.06 |
0.1 |
0.07 |
-0.03 |
|
NDJ |
JFM10 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON10 |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ11 |
Anomalies relative to 1971-2000
climo.