HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was +1.01 for FMA2009, a noticeable decrease from JFM. The warm event is winding down or has already ended.
The CA method, acting on global FMA2010 seasonal means as latest input forecasts the 3 mo running mean anomaly for Nino34 to stay in El Nino territory only thru MAM, followed by a rapid cool-off later in 2010, with –ve Nino34 anomalies by MJJ, and 80% of the members decidedly in La Nina territory by JAS.
Weights have not changed dramatically from 1 month ago (which is as it should be for CA-prediction to succeed). Many years with high –ve weight!. And more years than 1 month ago have high +ve weight – note an exceptionally high positive weight (+0.23) for 1969.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string MAM2009 thru FMA2010). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2009 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2009). Data currently thru Apr 2010.
|
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
|
1956 |
xx |
-1 |
1966 |
xx |
5 |
1976 |
xx |
-2 |
1986 |
xx |
-5 |
1996 |
xx |
13 |
2006 |
xx |
0 |
|
1957 |
xx |
-17 |
1967 |
xx |
-2 |
1977 |
xx |
-1 |
1987 |
xx |
3 |
1997 |
xx |
-2 |
2007 |
xx |
9 |
|
1958 |
xx |
8 |
1968 |
xx |
-9 |
1978 |
xx |
4 |
1988 |
xx |
7 |
1998 |
xx |
7 |
2008 |
xx |
2 |
|
1959 |
xx |
-1 |
1969 |
xx |
23 |
1979 |
xx |
-3 |
1989 |
xx |
-2 |
1999 |
xx |
-6 |
2009 |
xx |
0 |
|
1960 |
xx |
-12 |
1970 |
xx |
11 |
1980 |
xx |
-5 |
1990 |
xx |
10 |
2000 |
xx |
-3 |
2010 |
xx |
NA |
|
1961 |
xx |
-7 |
1971 |
xx |
8 |
1981 |
xx |
-2 |
1991 |
xx |
5 |
2001 |
xx |
0 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1962 |
xx |
2 |
1972 |
xx |
-4 |
1982 |
xx |
-6 |
1992 |
xx |
3 |
2002 |
xx |
14 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1963 |
xx |
-1 |
1973 |
xx |
9 |
1983 |
xx
|
0 |
1993 |
xx |
-3 |
2003 |
xx |
16 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1964 |
xx |
1 |
1974 |
xx |
0 |
1984 |
xx |
-9 |
1994 |
xx |
-13 |
2004 |
xx |
-1 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1965 |
xx |
-16 |
1975 |
xx |
1 |
1985 |
xx |
-10 |
1995 |
xx |
5 |
2005 |
xx |
11 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2005,2003,2002,1996,1990,1970,1969. Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1994,1985,1965,1960,1957.
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
|
1.01 |
0.81 |
0.36 |
-0.21 |
-0.42 |
-0.57 |
-0.71 |
-0.83 |
-1.01 |
-1.15 |
-1.15 |
-1.03 |
-0.74 |
-0.45 |
-0.23 |
-0.06 |
0.02 |
0.19 |
0.33 |
0.46 |
0.49 |
|
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS10 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS11 |
SON |
One month ago:
|
1.29 |
1.11 |
0.62 |
-0.07 |
-0.26 |
-0.43 |
-0.56 |
-0.69 |
-0.77 |
-0.89 |
-0.97 |
-0.94 |
-0.81 |
-0.56 |
-0.29 |
-0.11 |
0.04 |
0.1 |
0.27 |
0.41 |
0.53 |
|
JFM10 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON11 |
Two months ago:
|
1.54 |
1.4 |
0.98 |
0.31 |
0.06 |
-0.04 |
-0.15 |
-0.28 |
-0.4 |
-0.43 |
-0.45 |
-0.47 |
-0.44 |
-0.36 |
-0.2 |
0 |
0.12 |
0.21 |
0.21 |
0.29 |
0.36 |
|
JFM10 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON10 |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
|||||||||||
|
Three months ago: |
||||||||||||||||||||
|
1.67 |
1.59 |
1.26 |
0.68 |
0.34 |
0.15 |
0.09 |
-0.02 |
-0.15 |
-0.26 |
-0.25 |
-0.23 |
-0.21 |
-0.22 |
-0.19 |
-0.06 |
0.12 |
0.19 |
0.19 |
0.1 |
0.14 |
|
NDJ |
JFM10 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON10 |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS11 |
Anomalies relative to
1971-2000 climo.