HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was +0.59 for MAM2009, a noticeable decrease from FMA.
The CA method, acting on global MAM2010 seasonal means as latest input forecasts the 3 mo running mean anomaly for Nino34 to be in neutral territory from now till mid-summer, with 100% of its members in La Nina territory by late summer.
Weights have not changed dramatically from 1 month ago (which is as it should be for CA-prediction to succeed). A few years with high –ve weight!, but more so with high +ve weight. Note an exceptionally high positive weight (+0.26) for 1969.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string AMJ2009 thru MAM2010). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2009 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2009). Data currently thru May 2010.
|
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
|
1956 |
xx |
-1 |
1966 |
xx |
5 |
1976 |
xx |
-4 |
1986 |
xx |
-7 |
1996 |
xx |
12 |
2006 |
xx |
5 |
|
1957 |
xx |
-16 |
1967 |
xx |
-5 |
1977 |
xx |
0 |
1987 |
xx |
9 |
1997 |
xx |
-1 |
2007 |
xx |
8 |
|
1958 |
xx |
5 |
1968 |
xx |
-9 |
1978 |
xx |
1 |
1988 |
xx |
7 |
1998 |
xx |
7 |
2008 |
xx |
7 |
|
1959 |
xx |
-5 |
1969 |
xx |
26 |
1979 |
xx |
-2 |
1989 |
xx |
-7 |
1999 |
xx |
-5 |
2009 |
xx |
0 |
|
1960 |
xx |
-14 |
1970 |
xx |
12 |
1980 |
xx |
-3 |
1990 |
xx |
11 |
2000 |
xx |
-3 |
2010 |
xx |
NA |
|
1961 |
xx |
-3 |
1971 |
xx |
8 |
1981 |
xx |
-2 |
1991 |
xx |
3 |
2001 |
xx |
0 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1962 |
xx |
3 |
1972 |
xx |
-2 |
1982 |
xx |
-4 |
1992 |
xx |
0 |
2002 |
xx |
12 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1963 |
xx |
0 |
1973 |
xx |
11 |
1983 |
xx
|
2 |
1993 |
xx |
-4 |
2003 |
xx |
10 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1964 |
xx |
-1 |
1974 |
xx |
-2 |
1984 |
xx |
-8 |
1994 |
xx |
-14 |
2004 |
xx |
-1 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1965 |
xx |
-16 |
1975 |
xx |
0 |
1985 |
xx |
-6 |
1995 |
xx |
5 |
2005 |
xx |
14 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2005,2003,2002,1996,1990,1973,1970,1969. Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1994,1965,1960,1957.
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
|
0.59 |
0.46 |
0.17 |
-0.23 |
-0.37 |
-0.51 |
-0.66 |
-0.88 |
-1.08 |
-1.15 |
-1.08 |
-0.84 |
-0.58 |
-0.38 |
-0.25 |
-0.2 |
-0.06 |
0.04 |
0.14 |
0.13 |
0.04 |
|
MAM10 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM11 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON11 |
NDJ |
One month ago:
|
1.01 |
0.81 |
0.36 |
-0.21 |
-0.42 |
-0.57 |
-0.71 |
-0.83 |
-1.01 |
-1.15 |
-1.15 |
-1.03 |
-0.74 |
-0.45 |
-0.23 |
-0.06 |
0.02 |
0.19 |
0.33 |
0.46 |
0.49 |
|
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS10 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS11 |
SON |
Two months ago:
|
1.29 |
1.11 |
0.62 |
-0.07 |
-0.26 |
-0.43 |
-0.56 |
-0.69 |
-0.77 |
-0.89 |
-0.97 |
-0.94 |
-0.81 |
-0.56 |
-0.29 |
-0.11 |
0.04 |
0.1 |
0.27 |
0.41 |
0.53 |
|
JFM10 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON11 |
Three months ago:
|
1.54 |
1.4 |
0.98 |
0.31 |
0.06 |
-0.04 |
-0.15 |
-0.28 |
-0.4 |
-0.43 |
-0.45 |
-0.47 |
-0.44 |
-0.36 |
-0.2 |
0 |
0.12 |
0.21 |
0.21 |
0.29 |
0.36 |
|
JFM10 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON10 |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
|||||||||||
Anomalies relative to
1971-2000 climo.