HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was -0.83 for JJA2010, a considerable decrease from MJJ(-0.50).
The CA method, acting on global JJA2010 seasonal means as latest input forecasts the 3 mo running mean anomaly for Nino34, has 100% of its members in La Nina territory for the rest of the year. The forecast is a few tenths colder than last month, down to -2.0 by late 2010, making it a strong La Nina
Weights have developed some from last month. About seven years now with high –ve weight!, more so than years with high +ve weight. Note a high positive weight (+0.23), for 2005. The increasing negative weight assigned to 1997 (massive warm event coming) is noteworthy. OCN flavor is present: many +ve weights in recent years.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string JAS2009 thru JJA2010). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2009 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2009). Data currently thru Aug 2010.
|
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
|
1956 |
xx |
3 |
1966 |
xx |
0 |
1976 |
xx |
-11 |
1986 |
xx |
-14 |
1996 |
xx |
9 |
2006 |
xx |
9 |
|
1957 |
xx |
-4 |
1967 |
xx |
-1 |
1977 |
xx |
-3 |
1987 |
xx |
4 |
1997 |
xx |
-14 |
2007 |
xx |
13 |
|
1958 |
xx |
-2 |
1968 |
xx |
-4 |
1978 |
xx |
0 |
1988 |
xx |
6 |
1998 |
xx |
9 |
2008 |
xx |
7 |
|
1959 |
xx |
-8 |
1969 |
xx |
19 |
1979 |
xx |
4 |
1989 |
xx |
5 |
1999 |
xx |
2 |
2009 |
xx |
0 |
|
1960 |
xx |
-12 |
1970 |
xx |
10 |
1980 |
xx |
0 |
1990 |
xx |
7 |
2000 |
xx |
4 |
2010 |
xx |
NA |
|
1961 |
xx |
-5 |
1971 |
xx |
3 |
1981 |
xx |
-2 |
1991 |
xx |
1 |
2001 |
xx |
1 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1962 |
xx |
8 |
1972 |
xx |
-5 |
1982 |
xx |
0 |
1992 |
xx |
4 |
2002 |
xx |
9 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1963 |
xx |
-3 |
1973 |
xx |
10 |
1983 |
xx
|
1 |
1993 |
xx |
0 |
2003 |
xx |
0 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1964 |
xx |
2 |
1974 |
xx |
3 |
1984 |
xx |
-13 |
1994 |
xx |
-17 |
2004 |
xx |
1 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1965 |
xx |
-19 |
1975 |
xx |
4 |
1985 |
xx |
-1 |
1995 |
xx |
7 |
2005 |
xx |
23 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2007,2005,1973,1970,1969. Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1997,1994,1986,1984,1976,1965,1960.
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
|
-0.83 |
-0.89 |
-1.14 |
-1.53 |
-1.79 |
-1.96 |
-1.94 |
-1.7 |
-1.22 |
-0.76 |
-0.38 |
-0.14 |
0.01 |
0.14 |
0.24 |
0.35 |
0.39 |
0.37 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.18 |
|
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON11 |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
One month ago:
|
-0.49 |
-0.52 |
-0.71 |
-1.08 |
-1.33 |
-1.63 |
-1.83 |
-1.83 |
-1.63 |
-1.19 |
-0.75 |
-0.37 |
-0.15 |
-0.01 |
0.13 |
0.24 |
0.34 |
0.36 |
0.3 |
0.18 |
0.07 |
|
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
Two months ago:
|
0.06 |
0.02 |
-0.1 |
-0.29 |
-0.43 |
-0.6 |
-0.84 |
-1.06 |
-1.17 |
-1.14 |
-0.92 |
-0.66 |
-0.45 |
-0.33 |
-0.27 |
-0.15 |
-0.07 |
-0.01 |
-0.06 |
-0.15 |
-0.24 |
|
MJJ |
JAS |
SON11 |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
Three months ago:
|
0.59 |
0.46 |
0.17 |
-0.23 |
-0.37 |
-0.51 |
-0.66 |
-0.88 |
-1.08 |
-1.15 |
-1.08 |
-0.84 |
-0.58 |
-0.38 |
-0.25 |
-0.2 |
-0.06 |
0.04 |
0.14 |
0.13 |
0.04 |
|
MAM10 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM11 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON11 |
NDJ |
Four months ago:
|
1.01 |
0.81 |
0.36 |
-0.21 |
-0.42 |
-0.57 |
-0.71 |
-0.83 |
-1.01 |
-1.15 |
-1.15 |
-1.03 |
-0.74 |
-0.45 |
-0.23 |
-0.06 |
0.02 |
0.19 |
0.33 |
0.46 |
0.49 |
|
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS10 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS11 |
SON |
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Anomalies relative to
1971-2000 climo.