HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was -1.17 for JAS2010, a considerable decrease from JJA(-0.83).
The CA method, acting on global JAS2010 seasonal means as latest input forecasts the 3 mo running mean anomaly for Nino34, has 100% of its members in La Nina territory for the rest of the year and hovering near -2C at the peak, making it a strong La Nina surpassed by very few.
Weights have developed some from last month. There are six years with high –ve weight!, and six wigh +ve weight. The negative (positive) weight assigned to 1997 (1998) is noteworthy. OCN flavor is present: many +ve weights in recent years.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string ASO2009 thru JAS2010). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2009 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2009). Data currently thru Sep 2010.
|
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
|
1956 |
xx |
2 |
1966 |
xx |
-1 |
1976 |
xx |
-12 |
1986 |
xx |
-11 |
1996 |
xx |
8 |
2006 |
xx |
4 |
|
1957 |
xx |
-4 |
1967 |
xx |
0 |
1977 |
xx |
-3 |
1987 |
xx |
4 |
1997 |
xx |
-13 |
2007 |
xx |
12 |
|
1958 |
xx |
-7 |
1968 |
xx |
-4 |
1978 |
xx |
0 |
1988 |
xx |
9 |
1998 |
xx |
11 |
2008 |
xx |
12 |
|
1959 |
xx |
-9 |
1969 |
xx |
19 |
1979 |
xx |
1 |
1989 |
xx |
12 |
1999 |
xx |
0 |
2009 |
xx |
-1 |
|
1960 |
xx |
-6 |
1970 |
xx |
9 |
1980 |
xx |
1 |
1990 |
xx |
5 |
2000 |
xx |
8 |
2010 |
xx |
NA |
|
1961 |
xx |
-2 |
1971 |
xx |
0 |
1981 |
xx |
0 |
1991 |
xx |
5 |
2001 |
xx |
4 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1962 |
xx |
8 |
1972 |
xx |
-2 |
1982 |
xx |
-10 |
1992 |
xx |
6 |
2002 |
xx |
9 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1963 |
xx |
-2 |
1973 |
xx |
7 |
1983 |
xx
|
-1 |
1993 |
xx |
2 |
2003 |
xx |
-3 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1964 |
xx |
3 |
1974 |
xx |
0 |
1984 |
xx |
-21 |
1994 |
xx |
-15 |
2004 |
xx |
2 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1965 |
xx |
-19 |
1975 |
xx |
6 |
1985 |
xx |
-4 |
1995 |
xx |
7 |
2005 |
xx |
16 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2008, 2007,2005,1998,1989,1969. Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1997,1994,1986,1984,1976,1965.
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
|
-1.17 |
-1.25 |
-1.49 |
-1.88 |
-2.03 |
-1.98 |
-1.71 |
-1.19 |
-0.7 |
-0.3 |
-0.03 |
0.14 |
0.27 |
0.38 |
0.51 |
0.59 |
0.6 |
0.54 |
0.43 |
0.37 |
0.38 |
|
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON11 |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
MAM |
One month ago:
|
-0.83 |
-0.89 |
-1.14 |
-1.53 |
-1.79 |
-1.96 |
-1.94 |
-1.7 |
-1.22 |
-0.76 |
-0.38 |
-0.14 |
0.01 |
0.14 |
0.24 |
0.35 |
0.39 |
0.37 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.18 |
|
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON11 |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
Two months ago:
|
-0.49 |
-0.52 |
-0.71 |
-1.08 |
-1.33 |
-1.63 |
-1.83 |
-1.83 |
-1.63 |
-1.19 |
-0.75 |
-0.37 |
-0.15 |
-0.01 |
0.13 |
0.24 |
0.34 |
0.36 |
0.3 |
0.18 |
0.07 |
|
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
Three months ago:
|
0.06 |
0.02 |
-0.1 |
-0.29 |
-0.43 |
-0.6 |
-0.84 |
-1.06 |
-1.17 |
-1.14 |
-0.92 |
-0.66 |
-0.45 |
-0.33 |
-0.27 |
-0.15 |
-0.07 |
-0.01 |
-0.06 |
-0.15 |
-0.24 |
|
MJJ |
JAS |
SON11 |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
Four months ago:
|
0.59 |
0.46 |
0.17 |
-0.23 |
-0.37 |
-0.51 |
-0.66 |
-0.88 |
-1.08 |
-1.15 |
-1.08 |
-0.84 |
-0.58 |
-0.38 |
-0.25 |
-0.2 |
-0.06 |
0.04 |
0.14 |
0.13 |
0.04 |
|
MAM10 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM11 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON11 |
NDJ |
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Anomalies relative to
1971-2000 climo.