HIGHLIGHT: Normals have been changed to 1981-2010, note substantial changes in the weights!!!. The Nino34 climos have gone up by about 0.1K
The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was -1.02 for FMA2011, down from JFM. La Nina has weakened, not unusual for the season of course.
The CA method, acting on global FMA2011 seasonal means as latest input, has 100% of its members in La Nina territory only thru AMJ. La Nina conditions, but weaker and many members not making -.5, are expected by CA for rest of 2011, with a slight increase in coolness towards the end of the year. Thus there could a weak La Nina next winter. Some members crawl into positive territory by early spring 2012.
Weights have changed because a) two months ago the matrix size has increased by one, from 53 to 54, and this resets the weights given co-linearity among years, and b) we have changed normals as of this forecast to the 1981-2010 base period. There are seven years with high +ve weight!, and six high -ve weight. OCN flavor is much reduced, with more +ve weight given to older years than before.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string MAM2010 thru FMA2011). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2010 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2010). Data currently thru Apr 2011.
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
1956 |
xx |
1 |
1966 |
xx |
-12 |
1976 |
xx |
6 |
1986 |
xx |
-9 |
1996 |
xx |
17 |
2006 |
xx |
-1 |
1957 |
xx |
-5 |
1967 |
xx |
-2 |
1977 |
xx |
-10 |
1987 |
xx |
-9 |
1997 |
xx |
9 |
2007 |
xx |
-1 |
1958 |
xx |
-8 |
1968 |
xx |
-8 |
1978 |
xx |
2 |
1988 |
xx |
-5 |
1998 |
xx |
-3 |
2008 |
xx |
17 |
1959 |
xx |
-4 |
1969 |
xx |
11 |
1979 |
xx |
1 |
1989 |
xx |
6 |
1999 |
xx |
1 |
2009 |
xx |
5 |
1960 |
xx |
-17 |
1970 |
xx |
11 |
1980 |
xx |
-1 |
1990 |
xx |
-5 |
2000 |
xx |
9 |
2010 |
xx |
10 |
1961 |
xx |
-2 |
1971 |
xx |
2 |
1981 |
xx |
3 |
1991 |
xx |
-1 |
2001 |
xx |
-10 |
2011 |
xx |
NA |
1962 |
xx |
8 |
1972 |
xx |
1 |
1982 |
xx |
1 |
1992 |
xx |
-8 |
2002 |
xx |
8 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1963 |
xx |
15 |
1973 |
xx |
1 |
1983 |
xx
|
-1 |
1993 |
xx |
-8 |
2003 |
xx |
-9 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1964 |
xx |
-5 |
1974 |
xx |
21 |
1984 |
xx |
0 |
1994 |
xx |
-14 |
2004 |
xx |
0 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1965 |
xx |
-6 |
1975 |
xx |
-3 |
1985 |
xx |
-11 |
1995 |
xx |
-5 |
2005 |
xx |
-1 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2010,2008,1996,1974,1971,1970,1963. Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 2001,1994,1985,1977,1966,1960.
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
-1.02 |
-0.97 |
-0.74 |
-0.45 |
-0.33 |
-0.25 |
-0.26 |
-0.33 |
-0.45 |
-0.48 |
-0.47 |
-0.4 |
-0.34 |
-0.26 |
-0.25 |
-0.18 |
-0.13 |
-0.01 |
0.06 |
0.11 |
0.12 |
MAM11 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM12 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
One month ago:
-1.26 |
-1.23 |
-1.01 |
-0.64 |
-0.49 |
-0.41 |
-0.36 |
-0.38 |
-0.43 |
-0.54 |
-0.54 |
-0.49 |
-0.36 |
-0.18 |
-0.06 |
-0.02 |
0.03 |
0.06 |
0.18 |
0.25 |
0.32 |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON11 |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
Two months ago:
-1.46 |
-1.49 |
-1.33 |
-0.99 |
-0.78 |
-0.69 |
-0.67 |
-0.65 |
-0.66 |
-0.71 |
-0.79 |
-0.77 |
-0.67 |
-0.47 |
-0.27 |
-0.05 |
0.03 |
0.09 |
0.08 |
0.15 |
0.2 |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON11 |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS12 |
Three months ago:
-1.54 |
-1.62 |
-1.66 |
-1.39 |
-1.07 |
-0.83 |
-0.67 |
-0.6 |
-0.57 |
-0.59 |
-0.62 |
-0.69 |
-0.68 |
-0.5 |
-0.36 |
-0.21 |
-0.02 |
0.08 |
0.17 |
0.2 |
0.27 |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM11 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
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Four months ago: -1.54 |
-1.67 |
-1.86 |
-1.88 |
-1.47 |
-1.07 |
-0.78 |
-0.54 |
-0.38 |
-0.24 |
-0.19 |
-0.14 |
-0.16 |
-0.07 |
-0.07 |
-0.06 |
-0.02 |
0.11 |
0.23 |
0.33 |
0.36 |
NDJ |
JFM11 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON11 |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
MAM |
MJJ |
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Anomalies relative to
1981-2010 climo, as of this release. Older
forecasts (1-4 months ago) are relative to 71-2000