HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was -0.76 for ASO2011, noticeably colder than JAS(-0.52).
The CA method, acting on global ASO2011 seasonal means as latest input, has all of its members on the cold side of neutral. La Nina conditions, but weaker than last year but now in all 12 members, are expected by CA to be in place for the rest of 2011, with hardly any increase in coolness towards the end of the year. Some members crawl hesitantly into positive territory by summer 2012. Only a few members go for an El Nino (>+0.5) in 2012.
Weights have changed noticeably in one month. There are just five years with high +ve weight!, and seven high -ve weight, an unusual ratio. OCN flavor is much reduced compared to a few years ago (only >=2006 comes across with uniformly +ve weight), with more +ve weight given to older years than ever before and a high –ve weight to a recent year like 2003. Also note, aside from the interannual, a strong sign of interdecadal variation, with +ve in the later 2000s , and –ve in the late eighties and sixties.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string SON2010 thru ASO2011). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2010 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2010). Data currently thru Oct 2011.
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
1956 |
xx |
5 |
1966 |
xx |
-4 |
1976 |
xx |
4 |
1986 |
xx |
-14 |
1996 |
xx |
0 |
2006 |
xx |
10 |
1957 |
xx |
-4 |
1967 |
xx |
4 |
1977 |
xx |
-1 |
1987 |
xx |
-10 |
1997 |
xx |
1 |
2007 |
xx |
4 |
1958 |
xx |
-13 |
1968 |
xx |
-7 |
1978 |
xx |
-1 |
1988 |
xx |
2 |
1998 |
xx |
-6 |
2008 |
xx |
22 |
1959 |
xx |
-2 |
1969 |
xx |
8 |
1979 |
xx |
-2 |
1989 |
xx |
12 |
1999 |
xx |
-1 |
2009 |
xx |
4 |
1960 |
xx |
-8 |
1970 |
xx |
7 |
1980 |
xx |
-1 |
1990 |
xx |
3 |
2000 |
xx |
7 |
2010 |
xx |
15 |
1961 |
xx |
5 |
1971 |
xx |
2 |
1981 |
xx |
1 |
1991 |
xx |
-1 |
2001 |
xx |
-5 |
2011 |
xx |
NA |
1962 |
xx |
11 |
1972 |
xx |
9 |
1982 |
xx |
-4 |
1992 |
xx |
-7 |
2002 |
xx |
-2 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1963 |
xx |
7 |
1973 |
xx |
-1 |
1983 |
xx
|
0 |
1993 |
xx |
-11 |
2003 |
xx |
-12 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1964 |
xx |
-2 |
1974 |
xx |
5 |
1984 |
xx |
-12 |
1994 |
xx |
-2 |
2004 |
xx |
-4 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1965 |
xx |
-11 |
1975 |
xx |
3 |
1985 |
xx |
-5 |
1995 |
xx |
-6 |
2005 |
xx |
-4 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2010,2008,2006,1989,1962.
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 2003,1995,1987,1986,1984,1965,1958.
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
-0.76 |
-0.76 |
-0.75 |
-0.78 |
-0.79 |
-0.76 |
-0.63 |
-0.48 |
-0.35 |
-0.23 |
-0.22 |
-0.28 |
-0.36 |
-0.17 |
-0.08 |
0.07 |
0.22 |
0.3 |
0.26 |
0.24 |
0.23 |
SON11 |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON12 |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
One month ago:
-0.52 |
-0.51 |
-0.54 |
-0.56 |
-0.6 |
-0.62 |
-0.58 |
-0.48 |
-0.37 |
-0.25 |
-0.13 |
-0.1 |
-0.14 |
-0.02 |
0.04 |
0.14 |
0.22 |
0.3 |
0.28 |
0.19 |
0.11 |
JAS11 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
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Two months ago: -0.35 |
-0.36 |
-0.4 |
-0.48 |
-0.53 |
-0.58 |
-0.61 |
-0.56 |
-0.49 |
-0.41 |
-0.3 |
-0.19 |
-0.15 |
-0.12 |
-0.1 |
-0.02 |
0.08 |
0.15 |
0.2 |
0.17 |
0.09 |
JAS11 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON12 |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
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Three months ago: -0.31 |
-0.31 |
-0.29 |
-0.26 |
-0.28 |
-0.33 |
-0.38 |
-0.42 |
-0.4 |
-0.37 |
-0.32 |
-0.22 |
-0.14 |
-0.12 |
-0.1 |
-0.04 |
0.06 |
0.17 |
0.25 |
0.3 |
0.26 |
MJJ11 |
JAS11 |
SON11 |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS12 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
Four months ago:
-0.5 |
-0.48 |
-0.38 |
-0.29 |
-0.28 |
-0.31 |
-0.38 |
-0.43 |
-0.47 |
-0.44 |
-0.41 |
-0.33 |
-0.24 |
-0.15 |
-0.07 |
0.02 |
0.09 |
0.19 |
0.28 |
0.34 |
0.38 |
MJJ11 |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
MAM |
MJJ12 |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
2013 |
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Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo, as of the May 2011 release. Older forecasts
(previous to May 2011 release) are relative to 71-2000