HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was -1.0 C for OND2011, colder than SON(-0.9).
The CA method, acting on global OND2011 seasonal means as latest input, has all of its members on the cold side of neutral until early summer 2012. La Nina conditions, but weaker than last year but in all 12 members, are expected by CA to be in place into spring 2012. Some members crawl hesitantly into positive territory by summer 2012. No members go for an El Nino (>+0.5) later in 2012.
Weights have changed not very much in one month. There are just three years with high +ve weight!, and six high -ve weight, an unusual ratio. The year 2008 has carried a high weight for several month in a row. OCN flavor is much reduced compared to a few years ago (only >=2006 comes across with uniformly +ve weight, but 2001-2005 solidly negative).
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string NDJ2010 thru OND2011). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2010 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2010). Data currently thru Dec 2011.
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
1956 |
xx |
5 |
1966 |
xx |
-5 |
1976 |
xx |
3 |
1986 |
xx |
-13 |
1996 |
xx |
5 |
2006 |
xx |
9 |
1957 |
xx |
-5 |
1967 |
xx |
7 |
1977 |
xx |
4 |
1987 |
xx |
-10 |
1997 |
xx |
2 |
2007 |
xx |
6 |
1958 |
xx |
-9 |
1968 |
xx |
-5 |
1978 |
xx |
0 |
1988 |
xx |
0 |
1998 |
xx |
-3 |
2008 |
xx |
17 |
1959 |
xx |
-4 |
1969 |
xx |
3 |
1979 |
xx |
-3 |
1989 |
xx |
7 |
1999 |
xx |
9 |
2009 |
xx |
6 |
1960 |
xx |
-13 |
1970 |
xx |
8 |
1980 |
xx |
-4 |
1990 |
xx |
0 |
2000 |
xx |
-1 |
2010 |
xx |
13 |
1961 |
xx |
0 |
1971 |
xx |
7 |
1981 |
xx |
-4 |
1991 |
xx |
-8 |
2001 |
xx |
-1 |
2011 |
xx |
NA |
1962 |
xx |
4 |
1972 |
xx |
4 |
1982 |
xx |
-3 |
1992 |
xx |
-9 |
2002 |
xx |
-2 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1963 |
xx |
10 |
1973 |
xx |
-1 |
1983 |
xx
|
0 |
1993 |
xx |
-10 |
2003 |
xx |
-7 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1964 |
xx |
-3 |
1974 |
xx |
2 |
1984 |
xx |
-14 |
1994 |
xx |
0 |
2004 |
xx |
-3 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1965 |
xx |
-12 |
1975 |
xx |
9 |
1985 |
xx |
-2 |
1995 |
xx |
-3 |
2005 |
xx |
-3 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2010, 2008,1963.
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1993,1987,1986,1984,1965,1960.
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
-1.01 |
-1.01 |
-1.04 |
-1.01 |
-0.83 |
-0.65 |
-0.46 |
-0.27 |
-0.17 |
-0.15 |
-0.18 |
-0.15 |
-0.13 |
0.05 |
0.14 |
0.23 |
0.17 |
0.12 |
0.07 |
0.1 |
0.11 |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ |
|||||||||||
One month ago: -0.89 |
-0.87 |
-0.89 |
-0.94 |
-0.92 |
-0.77 |
-0.6 |
-0.44 |
-0.29 |
-0.24 |
-0.26 |
-0.32 |
-0.31 |
-0.07 |
0.08 |
0.21 |
0.3 |
0.25 |
0.21 |
0.16 |
0.18 |
SON11 |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM12 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ |
Two months ago:
-0.76 |
-0.76 |
-0.75 |
-0.78 |
-0.79 |
-0.76 |
-0.63 |
-0.48 |
-0.35 |
-0.23 |
-0.22 |
-0.28 |
-0.36 |
-0.17 |
-0.08 |
0.07 |
0.22 |
0.3 |
0.26 |
0.24 |
0.23 |
SON11 |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON12 |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
Three months ago:
-0.52 |
-0.51 |
-0.54 |
-0.56 |
-0.6 |
-0.62 |
-0.58 |
-0.48 |
-0.37 |
-0.25 |
-0.13 |
-0.1 |
-0.14 |
-0.02 |
0.04 |
0.14 |
0.22 |
0.3 |
0.28 |
0.19 |
0.11 |
JAS11 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
||||||||||
Four months ago: -0.35 |
-0.36 |
-0.4 |
-0.48 |
-0.53 |
-0.58 |
-0.61 |
-0.56 |
-0.49 |
-0.41 |
-0.3 |
-0.19 |
-0.15 |
-0.12 |
-0.1 |
-0.02 |
0.08 |
0.15 |
0.2 |
0.17 |
0.09 |
JAS11 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON12 |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo, as of the May 2011 release. Older forecasts
(previous to May 2011 release) are relative to 71-2000