HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was -1.0 C for NDJ2011/12, unchanged from OND.
The CA method, acting on global NDJ2011/12 seasonal means as latest input, has all of its members on the cold side of neutral until early summer 2012. La Nina conditions, but weaker than last year but in all 12 members, are thus expected by CA to stay in place into spring 2012. By JJA 2012 all members are in neutral territory. Some members crawl hesitantly into positive territory by summer 2012. No members go for an El Nino (>+0.5) later in 2012.
Weights have changed some in just one month. There are six years with high +ve weight!, but eight high -ve weight, an unusual ratio. The year 2008 (Jan 2011 or earlier check 2007) has carried a high +ve weight for 18 months in a row (this is why CA works as well as it does) but is slowly decreasing. OCN flavor is much reduced compared to a few years ago (only the period >=2006 comes across with uniformly +ve weight, but 2002-2005 solidly negative). Expect bigger changes in one month because we will add at that time one year of data to the CA operator.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string DJF2011 thru NDJ2011/12). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2010 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2010). Data currently thru Jan 2012.
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
1956 |
xx |
2 |
1966 |
xx |
-7 |
1976 |
xx |
2 |
1986 |
xx |
-12 |
1996 |
xx |
10 |
2006 |
xx |
11 |
1957 |
xx |
-3 |
1967 |
xx |
3 |
1977 |
xx |
5 |
1987 |
xx |
-13 |
1997 |
xx |
2 |
2007 |
xx |
5 |
1958 |
xx |
-9 |
1968 |
xx |
-11 |
1978 |
xx |
5 |
1988 |
xx |
-5 |
1998 |
xx |
-2 |
2008 |
xx |
15 |
1959 |
xx |
-1 |
1969 |
xx |
4 |
1979 |
xx |
-4 |
1989 |
xx |
13 |
1999 |
xx |
17 |
2009 |
xx |
-2 |
1960 |
xx |
-10 |
1970 |
xx |
6 |
1980 |
xx |
0 |
1990 |
xx |
0 |
2000 |
xx |
4 |
2010 |
xx |
11 |
1961 |
xx |
3 |
1971 |
xx |
6 |
1981 |
xx |
-2 |
1991 |
xx |
-6 |
2001 |
xx |
2 |
2011 |
xx |
NA |
1962 |
xx |
4 |
1972 |
xx |
4 |
1982 |
xx |
-1 |
1992 |
xx |
-12 |
2002 |
xx |
-4 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1963 |
xx |
8 |
1973 |
xx |
-3 |
1983 |
xx
|
0 |
1993 |
xx |
-10 |
2003 |
xx |
-11 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1964 |
xx |
-3 |
1974 |
xx |
1 |
1984 |
xx |
-16 |
1994 |
xx |
0 |
2004 |
xx |
-1 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1965 |
xx |
-7 |
1975 |
xx |
7 |
1985 |
xx |
0 |
1995 |
xx |
-2 |
2005 |
xx |
-4 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2010, 2008, 2006,1999,1996,1989
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 2003,1993,1992,1987,1986,1984,1968,1960.
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
-1 |
-1 |
-0.95 |
-0.72 |
-0.51 |
-0.3 |
-0.11 |
0.01 |
0.03 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.02 |
0.09 |
0.2 |
0.28 |
0.23 |
0.21 |
0.18 |
0.24 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON12 |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
One month ago:
-1.01 |
-1.01 |
-1.04 |
-1.01 |
-0.83 |
-0.65 |
-0.46 |
-0.27 |
-0.17 |
-0.15 |
-0.18 |
-0.15 |
-0.13 |
0.05 |
0.14 |
0.23 |
0.17 |
0.12 |
0.07 |
0.1 |
0.11 |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ |
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Two months ago: -0.89 |
-0.87 |
-0.89 |
-0.94 |
-0.92 |
-0.77 |
-0.6 |
-0.44 |
-0.29 |
-0.24 |
-0.26 |
-0.32 |
-0.31 |
-0.07 |
0.08 |
0.21 |
0.3 |
0.25 |
0.21 |
0.16 |
0.18 |
SON11 |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM12 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ |
Three months ago:
-0.76 |
-0.76 |
-0.75 |
-0.78 |
-0.79 |
-0.76 |
-0.63 |
-0.48 |
-0.35 |
-0.23 |
-0.22 |
-0.28 |
-0.36 |
-0.17 |
-0.08 |
0.07 |
0.22 |
0.3 |
0.26 |
0.24 |
0.23 |
SON11 |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON12 |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
Four months ago:
-0.52 |
-0.51 |
-0.54 |
-0.56 |
-0.6 |
-0.62 |
-0.58 |
-0.48 |
-0.37 |
-0.25 |
-0.13 |
-0.1 |
-0.14 |
-0.02 |
0.04 |
0.14 |
0.22 |
0.3 |
0.28 |
0.19 |
0.11 |
JAS11 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM12 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
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Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo, as of the May 2011 release. Older forecasts
(previous to May 2011 release) are relative to 71-2000