HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was 0.2 C for MJJ2012, up from AMJ (-0.1).

The CA method, acting on global MJJ2012 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has nine out of twelve of its members in neutral territory from now until further notice. Six members go for a weak El Nino (>+0.5) late in 2012. All members fall back in weak to moderate negative territory in 2013 and one member in excess of -1.5!.

Weights have changed only modestly from last month, as it should when the system behaves properly according to its own forecast. Year 2000 carried a +0.24 weight a few months ago, but came down to 0.14. 1996 is high –ve since a few months.

There are five (somewhat recent) years with high +ve weight!, and three (somewhat older) years with high -ve weight. OCN flavor is much reduced compared to a few years ago (2010 has –ve weight), but not completely gone.

Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string JJA2011 thru MJJ2012). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2011 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2011). Data currently thru July 2012.

Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Weigt
1956	xx	-1	1966	xx	-13	1976	Xx	14	1986	xx	-14	1996	xx	-16	2006	xx	8
1957	xx	5	1967	xx	-1	1977	Xx	14	1987	xx	-8	1997	xx	4	2007	xx	7
1958	xx	-3	1968	xx	-8	1978	Xx	4	1988	xx	-7	1998	xx	-1	2008	xx	1
1959	xx	-2	1969	xx	-8	1979	Xx	-1	1989	xx	-2	1999	xx	-2	2009	xx	13
1960	xx	2	1970	xx	0	1980	Xx	-2	1990	xx	2	2000	xx	14	2010	xx	-1
1961	xx	0	1971	xx	-4	1981	Xx	-1	1991	xx	0	2001	xx	8	2011	xx	11
1962	xx	5	1972	xx	1	1982	Xx	-3	1992	xx	-7	2002	xx	8	2012	xx	NA
1963	xx	7	1973	xx	-6	1983	xx	8	1993	xx	-8	2003	xx	-2		xx	Xx
1964	xx	2	1974	xx	-8	1984	Xx	8	1994	xx	1	2004	xx	-5		xx	Xx
1965	xx	2	1975	xx	-2	1985	Xx	-5	1995	xx	-2	2005	xx	2		xx	Xx

Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2011,2009,2000,1977,1976

Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1996,1986,1966

Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):

0.19	0.22	0.27	0.35	0.42	0.47	0.48	0.37	0.25	0.02	-0.18	-0.34	-0.37	-0.54	-0.64	-0.75	-0.77	-0.75	-0.69	-0.63	-0.52
MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM2012		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM2013

One month ago:

-0.08	0	0.14	0.28	0.31	0.38	0.42	0.44	0.35	0.27	0.07	-0.1	-0.28	-0.45	-0.53	-0.61	-0.68	-0.68	-0.67	-0.63	-0.61
	MJJ		JAS		SON12		NDJ		JFM13		MAM		MJJ13		JAS		SON		NDJ

Two months ago:

-0.39	-0.29	-0.06	0.16	0.19	0.21	0.28	0.32	0.33	0.25	0.21	0.08	-0.05	-0.26	-0.33	-0.38	-0.42	-0.47	-0.48	-0.47	-0.44
MAM		MJJ		JAS2012		SON		NDJ		JFM		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON2013		NDJ

Three months ago:

-0.61	-0.51	-0.28	0.03	0.06	0.05	0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.07	-0.19	-0.19	-0.18	-0.18	-0.18	-0.17	-0.1
	MAM2012		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM2013		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON

Four months ago

-0.82	-0.72	-0.49	-0.14	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.1	-0.16	-0.19	-0.15	-0.11	-0.01	0.02	0.01	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01
JFM12		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM13		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON
																JFM13		MAM		MJJ

Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo, as of the May 2011 release. Older forecasts (previous to May 2011 release) are relative to 71-2000