HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was almost 0.5 C for JJA2012, up from MJJ (0.2).
The CA method, acting on global JJA2012 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has nine out of twelve of its members going above +0.5 later this year, but none above +1.0. All members fall back in weak to moderately negative territory in 2013.
Weights have changed noticeably from last month. Year 2000 carried a large +ve weight for 9 months at least, but came down to 0.10.
There are six (somewhat recent) years with high +ve weight!, and six (somewhat older) years with high -ve weight. OCN flavor is much reduced compared to a few years ago, but not completely gone.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string JAS2011 thru JJA2012). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2011 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2011). Data currently thru Aug 2012.
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
1956 |
xx |
0 |
1966 |
xx |
-13 |
1976 |
Xx |
16 |
1986 |
xx |
-16 |
1996 |
xx |
-12 |
2006 |
xx |
3 |
1957 |
xx |
2 |
1967 |
xx |
-1 |
1977 |
Xx |
14 |
1987 |
xx |
-1 |
1997 |
xx |
0 |
2007 |
xx |
5 |
1958 |
xx |
-6 |
1968 |
xx |
-9 |
1978 |
Xx |
3 |
1988 |
xx |
-12 |
1998 |
xx |
-1 |
2008 |
xx |
10 |
1959 |
xx |
-4 |
1969 |
xx |
-8 |
1979 |
Xx |
1 |
1989 |
xx |
-1 |
1999 |
xx |
-4 |
2009 |
xx |
10 |
1960 |
xx |
2 |
1970 |
xx |
1 |
1980 |
Xx |
-2 |
1990 |
xx |
5 |
2000 |
xx |
10 |
2010 |
xx |
1 |
1961 |
xx |
0 |
1971 |
xx |
-2 |
1981 |
Xx |
-2 |
1991 |
xx |
2 |
2001 |
xx |
8 |
2011 |
xx |
11 |
1962 |
xx |
9 |
1972 |
xx |
2 |
1982 |
Xx |
-2 |
1992 |
xx |
-8 |
2002 |
xx |
7 |
2012 |
xx |
NA |
1963 |
xx |
7 |
1973 |
xx |
-8 |
1983 |
xx
|
9 |
1993 |
xx |
-11 |
2003 |
xx |
0 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1964 |
xx |
1 |
1974 |
xx |
-7 |
1984 |
Xx |
5 |
1994 |
xx |
6 |
2004 |
xx |
-2 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1965 |
xx |
1 |
1975 |
xx |
-1 |
1985 |
Xx |
-11 |
1995 |
xx |
-2 |
2005 |
xx |
5 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2011,2009,2008,2000,1977,1976
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1996,1993,1988,1986,1985,1966
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
0.47 |
0.46 |
0.47 |
0.53 |
0.57 |
0.54 |
0.4 |
0.27 |
0.05 |
-0.14 |
-0.26 |
-0.23 |
-0.24 |
-0.41 |
-0.53 |
-0.51 |
-0.45 |
-0.38 |
-0.34 |
-0.32 |
-0.27 |
JAS2012 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2013 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2014 |
One month ago:
0.19 |
0.22 |
0.27 |
0.35 |
0.42 |
0.47 |
0.48 |
0.37 |
0.25 |
0.02 |
-0.18 |
-0.34 |
-0.37 |
-0.54 |
-0.64 |
-0.75 |
-0.77 |
-0.75 |
-0.69 |
-0.63 |
-0.52 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2012 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2013 |
Two month ago:
-0.08 |
0 |
0.14 |
0.28 |
0.31 |
0.38 |
0.42 |
0.44 |
0.35 |
0.27 |
0.07 |
-0.1 |
-0.28 |
-0.45 |
-0.53 |
-0.61 |
-0.68 |
-0.68 |
-0.67 |
-0.63 |
-0.61 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON12 |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ13 |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
Three months ago:
-0.39 |
-0.29 |
-0.06 |
0.16 |
0.19 |
0.21 |
0.28 |
0.32 |
0.33 |
0.25 |
0.21 |
0.08 |
-0.05 |
-0.26 |
-0.33 |
-0.38 |
-0.42 |
-0.47 |
-0.48 |
-0.47 |
-0.44 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS2012 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON2013 |
NDJ |
Four months ago:
-0.61 |
-0.51 |
-0.28 |
0.03 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
0 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
-0.06 |
-0.02 |
-0.05 |
-0.07 |
-0.19 |
-0.19 |
-0.18 |
-0.18 |
-0.18 |
-0.17 |
-0.1 |
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MAM2012 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2013 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
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JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ |
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Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo, as of the May 2011 release. Older forecasts
(previous to May 2011 release) are relative to 71-2000