HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was almost 0.6 C for JAS2012, up only slightly from JJA (0.5).
The CA method, acting on global JAS2012 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has most of its members staying above +0.5 this year, but none above +1.0. All members fall back in weak to moderately negative territory in 2013.
Weights have become a bit larger from last month, with more high negatives than positives. Year 2000 has carried a large +ve weight for 10 months at least, but is now around 0.10 only.
There are six (somewhat recent) years with high +ve weight!, and eight (somewhat older) years with high -ve weight. OCN flavor is much reduced compared to a few years ago, but not completely gone.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string ASO2011 thru JAS2012). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2011 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2011). Data currently thru Sep 2012.
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
1956 |
xx |
2 |
1966 |
xx |
-14 |
1976 |
Xx |
12 |
1986 |
xx |
-14 |
1996 |
xx |
-12 |
2006 |
xx |
3 |
1957 |
xx |
-2 |
1967 |
xx |
-2 |
1977 |
Xx |
14 |
1987 |
xx |
0 |
1997 |
xx |
1 |
2007 |
xx |
3 |
1958 |
xx |
-9 |
1968 |
xx |
-12 |
1978 |
Xx |
7 |
1988 |
xx |
-18 |
1998 |
xx |
-1 |
2008 |
xx |
17 |
1959 |
xx |
-3 |
1969 |
xx |
-3 |
1979 |
Xx |
-1 |
1989 |
xx |
0 |
1999 |
xx |
-2 |
2009 |
xx |
6 |
1960 |
xx |
4 |
1970 |
xx |
1 |
1980 |
Xx |
-3 |
1990 |
xx |
3 |
2000 |
xx |
10 |
2010 |
xx |
6 |
1961 |
xx |
4 |
1971 |
xx |
-2 |
1981 |
Xx |
-4 |
1991 |
xx |
1 |
2001 |
xx |
7 |
2011 |
xx |
12 |
1962 |
xx |
9 |
1972 |
xx |
5 |
1982 |
Xx |
1 |
1992 |
xx |
-6 |
2002 |
xx |
5 |
2012 |
xx |
NA |
1963 |
xx |
5 |
1973 |
xx |
-11 |
1983 |
xx
|
5 |
1993 |
xx |
-15 |
2003 |
xx |
-2 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1964 |
xx |
0 |
1974 |
xx |
-8 |
1984 |
Xx |
4 |
1994 |
xx |
13 |
2004 |
xx |
3 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1965 |
xx |
1 |
1975 |
xx |
1 |
1985 |
Xx |
-13 |
1995 |
xx |
-3 |
2005 |
xx |
4 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2011,2008,2000,1994,1977,1976
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1996,1993,1988,1986,1985,1973,1968,1966
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
0.65 |
0.63 |
0.69 |
0.8 |
0.75 |
0.58 |
0.41 |
0.19 |
-0.01 |
-0.14 |
-0.16 |
-0.22 |
-0.32 |
-0.64 |
-0.68 |
-0.69 |
-0.64 |
-0.6 |
-0.53 |
-0.44 |
-0.32 |
JAS |
SON2012 |
NDJ |
JFM2013 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2014 |
MAM |
One month ago:
0.47 |
0.46 |
0.47 |
0.53 |
0.57 |
0.54 |
0.4 |
0.27 |
0.05 |
-0.14 |
-0.26 |
-0.23 |
-0.24 |
-0.41 |
-0.53 |
-0.51 |
-0.45 |
-0.38 |
-0.34 |
-0.32 |
-0.27 |
JAS2012 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2013 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2014 |
Two months ago:
0.19 |
0.22 |
0.27 |
0.35 |
0.42 |
0.47 |
0.48 |
0.37 |
0.25 |
0.02 |
-0.18 |
-0.34 |
-0.37 |
-0.54 |
-0.64 |
-0.75 |
-0.77 |
-0.75 |
-0.69 |
-0.63 |
-0.52 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2012 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2013 |
Three months ago:
-0.08 |
0 |
0.14 |
0.28 |
0.31 |
0.38 |
0.42 |
0.44 |
0.35 |
0.27 |
0.07 |
-0.1 |
-0.28 |
-0.45 |
-0.53 |
-0.61 |
-0.68 |
-0.68 |
-0.67 |
-0.63 |
-0.61 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON12 |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ13 |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
Four months ago:
-0.39 |
-0.29 |
-0.06 |
0.16 |
0.19 |
0.21 |
0.28 |
0.32 |
0.33 |
0.25 |
0.21 |
0.08 |
-0.05 |
-0.26 |
-0.33 |
-0.38 |
-0.42 |
-0.47 |
-0.48 |
-0.47 |
-0.44 |
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MAM |
MJJ |
JAS2012 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON2013 |
NDJ |
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JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ |
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Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo, as of the May 2011 release. Older forecasts
(previous to May 2011 release) are relative to 71-2000