HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was almost 0.5 C for ASO2012, down slightly from JAS (0.6).
The CA method, acting on global ASO2012 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has nearly all of its members staying above +0.5 through DJF12/13, but none above +1.0. All members fall back in weak to moderately negative territory by AMJ 2013 with some members in excess of -1.0 later in 2013.
Weights have changed very little from last month, with more high negatives than positives.
There are five (somewhat recent) years with high +ve weight!, and eight (somewhat older) years with high -ve weight. OCN flavor is much reduced compared to a few years ago, but not completely gone.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string SON2011 thru ASO2012). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2011 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2011). Data currently thru Oct 2012.
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
1956 |
xx |
3 |
1966 |
xx |
-11 |
1976 |
Xx |
10 |
1986 |
xx |
-12 |
1996 |
xx |
-10 |
2006 |
xx |
4 |
1957 |
xx |
0 |
1967 |
xx |
-3 |
1977 |
Xx |
12 |
1987 |
xx |
2 |
1997 |
xx |
-3 |
2007 |
xx |
2 |
1958 |
xx |
-4 |
1968 |
xx |
-13 |
1978 |
Xx |
6 |
1988 |
xx |
-19 |
1998 |
xx |
-5 |
2008 |
xx |
15 |
1959 |
xx |
0 |
1969 |
xx |
-3 |
1979 |
Xx |
-4 |
1989 |
xx |
7 |
1999 |
xx |
-2 |
2009 |
xx |
7 |
1960 |
xx |
6 |
1970 |
xx |
4 |
1980 |
Xx |
-2 |
1990 |
xx |
3 |
2000 |
xx |
8 |
2010 |
xx |
7 |
1961 |
xx |
8 |
1971 |
xx |
-4 |
1981 |
Xx |
-1 |
1991 |
xx |
-1 |
2001 |
xx |
2 |
2011 |
xx |
11 |
1962 |
xx |
8 |
1972 |
xx |
6 |
1982 |
Xx |
0 |
1992 |
xx |
-1 |
2002 |
xx |
6 |
2012 |
xx |
NA |
1963 |
xx |
-2 |
1973 |
xx |
-10 |
1983 |
xx
|
3 |
1993 |
xx |
-15 |
2003 |
xx |
-1 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1964 |
xx |
-6 |
1974 |
xx |
-6 |
1984 |
Xx |
1 |
1994 |
xx |
11 |
2004 |
xx |
2 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1965 |
xx |
-1 |
1975 |
xx |
3 |
1985 |
Xx |
-12 |
1995 |
xx |
-4 |
2005 |
xx |
4 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2011,2008,1994,1977,1976
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1996,1993,1988,1986,1985,1973,1968,1966
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
0.49 |
0.52 |
0.62 |
0.66 |
0.49 |
0.33 |
0.17 |
0.01 |
-0.11 |
-0.16 |
-0.24 |
-0.37 |
-0.54 |
-0.67 |
-0.66 |
-0.57 |
-0.48 |
-0.4 |
-0.33 |
-0.2 |
0.02 |
SON12 |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
One month ago
0.65 |
0.63 |
0.69 |
0.8 |
0.75 |
0.58 |
0.41 |
0.19 |
-0.01 |
-0.14 |
-0.16 |
-0.22 |
-0.32 |
-0.64 |
-0.68 |
-0.69 |
-0.64 |
-0.6 |
-0.53 |
-0.44 |
-0.32 |
JAS |
SON2012 |
NDJ |
JFM2013 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2014 |
MAM |
Two months ago:
0.47 |
0.46 |
0.47 |
0.53 |
0.57 |
0.54 |
0.4 |
0.27 |
0.05 |
-0.14 |
-0.26 |
-0.23 |
-0.24 |
-0.41 |
-0.53 |
-0.51 |
-0.45 |
-0.38 |
-0.34 |
-0.32 |
-0.27 |
JAS2012 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2013 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2014 |
Three months ago:
0.19 |
0.22 |
0.27 |
0.35 |
0.42 |
0.47 |
0.48 |
0.37 |
0.25 |
0.02 |
-0.18 |
-0.34 |
-0.37 |
-0.54 |
-0.64 |
-0.75 |
-0.77 |
-0.75 |
-0.69 |
-0.63 |
-0.52 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2012 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2013 |
Four months ago:
-0.08 |
0 |
0.14 |
0.28 |
0.31 |
0.38 |
0.42 |
0.44 |
0.35 |
0.27 |
0.07 |
-0.1 |
-0.28 |
-0.45 |
-0.53 |
-0.61 |
-0.68 |
-0.68 |
-0.67 |
-0.63 |
-0.61 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON12 |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ13 |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
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JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ |
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Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo, as of the May 2011 release. Older forecasts
(previous to May 2011 release) are relative to 71-2000