HIGHLIGHT:  The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was almost 0.5 C for ASO2012, down slightly from JAS (0.6). 

The CA method, acting on global ASO2012 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has nearly all of its members staying above +0.5 through DJF12/13, but none above +1.0. All members fall back in weak to moderately negative territory by AMJ 2013 with some members in excess of -1.0 later in 2013.

Weights have changed very little from last month, with more high negatives than positives.

There are five (somewhat recent) years with high +ve weight!, and eight (somewhat older) years with high -ve weight. OCN flavor is much reduced compared to a few years ago, but not completely gone.

Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string SON2011 thru ASO2012). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2011 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2011). Data currently thru Oct 2012.

Year

IP

Wgt

Year

IP

Wgt

Year

IP

Wgt

Year

IP

Wgt

Year

IP

Wgt

Year

IP

Weigt

1956

xx

 3

1966

xx

-11

1976

Xx

10

1986

xx

-12

1996

xx

-10

2006

xx

 4

1957

xx

 0

1967

xx

-3

1977

Xx

12

1987

xx

 2

1997

xx

-3

2007

xx

 2

1958

xx

-4

1968

xx

-13

1978

Xx

 6

1988

xx

-19

1998

xx

-5

2008

xx

15

1959

xx

 0

1969

xx

-3

1979

Xx

-4

1989

xx

 7

1999

xx

-2

2009

xx

 7

1960

xx

 6

1970

xx

 4

1980

Xx

-2

1990

xx

 3

2000

xx

 8

2010

xx

 7

1961

xx

 8

1971

xx

-4

1981

Xx

-1

1991

xx

-1

2001

xx

 2

2011

xx

11

1962

xx

 8

1972

xx

 6

1982

Xx

 0

1992

xx

-1

2002

xx

 6

2012

xx

NA

1963

xx

-2

1973

xx

-10

1983

xx

 3

1993

xx

-15

2003

xx

-1

xx

Xx

1964

xx

-6

1974

xx

-6

1984

Xx

 1

1994

xx

11

2004

xx

 2

xx

Xx

1965

xx

-1

1975

xx

 3

1985

Xx

-12

1995

xx

-4

2005

xx

 4

xx

Xx

 

Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2011,2008,1994,1977,1976

Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1996,1993,1988,1986,1985,1973,1968,1966

 

Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):

0.49

0.52

0.62

0.66

0.49

0.33

0.17

0.01

-0.11

-0.16

-0.24

-0.37

-0.54

-0.67

-0.66

-0.57

-0.48

-0.4

-0.33

-0.2

0.02

SON12

NDJ

JFM13

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON

NDJ

JFM14

MAM

One month ago

0.65

0.63

0.69

0.8

0.75

0.58

0.41

0.19

-0.01

-0.14

-0.16

-0.22

-0.32

-0.64

-0.68

-0.69

-0.64

-0.6

-0.53

-0.44

-0.32

JAS

SON2012

NDJ

JFM2013

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON

NDJ

JFM2014

MAM

Two months ago:

0.47

0.46

0.47

0.53

0.57

0.54

0.4

0.27

0.05

-0.14

-0.26

-0.23

-0.24

-0.41

-0.53

-0.51

-0.45

-0.38

-0.34

-0.32

-0.27

JAS2012

SON

NDJ

JFM2013

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON

NDJ

JFM2014

 

Three months ago:

0.19

0.22

0.27

0.35

0.42

0.47

0.48

0.37

0.25

0.02

-0.18

-0.34

-0.37

-0.54

-0.64

-0.75

-0.77

-0.75

-0.69

-0.63

-0.52

MJJ

JAS

SON

NDJ

JFM2012

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON

NDJ

JFM2013

 

Four months ago:

-0.08

0

0.14

0.28

0.31

0.38

0.42

0.44

0.35

0.27

0.07

-0.1

-0.28

-0.45

-0.53

-0.61

-0.68

-0.68

-0.67

-0.63

-0.61

MJJ

JAS

SON12

NDJ

JFM13

MAM

MJJ13

JAS

SON

NDJ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JFM13

MAM

MJJ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo, as of the May 2011 release. Older forecasts (previous to May 2011 release) are relative to 71-2000