HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was almost 0.4 C for SON2012, further down slightly from ASO (0.5), as it was from JAS(0.6).

The CA method, acting on global SON2012 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has nearly all of its members staying above +0.5 through DJF12/13, but none more than 0.6. Most members fall back in weak to moderately negative territory by AMJ 2013 with some members near -1.0 later in 2013.

Weights have changed from last month, with fewer high weights (an ill-defined initial condition) but still more high negatives than positives.

There are four (somewhat recent) years with high +ve weight!, and five (somewhat older) years with high -ve weight. OCN flavor is much reduced compared to a few years ago, but not completely gone. Weights are >=0 from 2000 onward.

Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string OND2011 thru SON2012). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2011 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2011). Data currently thru Nov 2012.

Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Weigt
1956	xx	4	1966	xx	-9	1976	Xx	7	1986	xx	-18	1996	xx	-7	2006	xx	6
1957	xx	4	1967	xx	-4	1977	Xx	11	1987	xx	-3	1997	xx	-3	2007	xx	7
1958	xx	-2	1968	xx	-7	1978	Xx	2	1988	xx	-14	1998	xx	-7	2008	xx	10
1959	xx	1	1969	xx	2	1979	Xx	-3	1989	xx	7	1999	xx	-5	2009	xx	7
1960	xx	6	1970	xx	4	1980	Xx	-1	1990	xx	4	2000	xx	6	2010	xx	5
1961	xx	7	1971	xx	-1	1981	Xx	1	1991	xx	-1	2001	xx	4	2011	xx	10
1962	xx	4	1972	xx	6	1982	Xx	-1	1992	xx	5	2002	xx	7	2012	xx	NA
1963	xx	-3	1973	xx	-10	1983	xx	5	1993	xx	-12	2003	xx	0		xx	Xx
1964	xx	-9	1974	xx	-7	1984	Xx	0	1994	xx	11	2004	xx	0		xx	Xx
1965	xx	-5	1975	xx	1	1985	Xx	-13	1995	xx	-2	2005	xx	1		xx	Xx

Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2011,2008,1994,1977

Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1993,1988,1986,1985,1973

Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):

0.38	0.43	0.51	0.45	0.31	0.18	0.08	0	-0.07	-0.18	-0.34	-0.47	-0.5	-0.6	-0.5	-0.42	-0.34	-0.25	-0.07	0.15	0.33
SON12		NDJ		JFM13		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON13		NDJ		JFM14		MAM		MJJ

One month ago:

0.49	0.52	0.62	0.66	0.49	0.33	0.17	0.01	-0.11	-0.16	-0.24	-0.37	-0.54	-0.67	-0.66	-0.57	-0.48	-0.4	-0.33	-0.2	0.02
	SON12		NDJ		JFM13		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM14		MAM

Two months ago

0.65	0.63	0.69	0.8	0.75	0.58	0.41	0.19	-0.01	-0.14	-0.16	-0.22	-0.32	-0.64	-0.68	-0.69	-0.64	-0.6	-0.53	-0.44	-0.32
JAS		SON2012		NDJ		JFM2013		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM2014		MAM

Three months ago:

0.47	0.46	0.47	0.53	0.57	0.54	0.4	0.27	0.05	-0.14	-0.26	-0.23	-0.24	-0.41	-0.53	-0.51	-0.45	-0.38	-0.34	-0.32	-0.27
	JAS2012		SON		NDJ		JFM2013		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM2014

Four months ago:

0.19	0.22	0.27	0.35	0.42	0.47	0.48	0.37	0.25	0.02	-0.18	-0.34	-0.37	-0.54	-0.64	-0.75	-0.77	-0.75	-0.69	-0.63	-0.52
MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM2012		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM2013

Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo, as of the May 2011 release. Older forecasts (previous to May 2011 release) are relative to 71-2000