HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was almost 0.2 C for OND2012, further down slightly from SON (0.4), as it was from JAS(0.6).
The CA method, acting on global OND2012 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members staying in the neutral zone for a long time. A few members fall back in weak to moderately negative territory by JAS 2013 but no members below -0.6.
Weights have changed from last month, with even fewer high weights of either sign (an ill-defined initial condition).
OCN flavor is much reduced compared to a few years ago, but not completely gone. Weights are >=0 from 2000 onward.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string NDJ2011 thru OND2012). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2011 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2011). Data currently thru Dec 2012.
|
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
|
1956 |
xx |
4 |
1966 |
xx |
-7 |
1976 |
Xx |
6 |
1986 |
xx |
-17 |
1996 |
xx |
-4 |
2006 |
xx |
8 |
|
1957 |
xx |
3 |
1967 |
xx |
-1 |
1977 |
Xx |
8 |
1987 |
xx |
-7 |
1997 |
xx |
-5 |
2007 |
xx |
6 |
|
1958 |
xx |
-2 |
1968 |
xx |
-5 |
1978 |
Xx |
2 |
1988 |
xx |
-9 |
1998 |
xx |
-8 |
2008 |
xx |
6 |
|
1959 |
xx |
1 |
1969 |
xx |
4 |
1979 |
Xx |
1 |
1989 |
xx |
3 |
1999 |
xx |
-2 |
2009 |
xx |
8 |
|
1960 |
xx |
3 |
1970 |
xx |
1 |
1980 |
Xx |
0 |
1990 |
xx |
5 |
2000 |
xx |
4 |
2010 |
xx |
1 |
|
1961 |
xx |
3 |
1971 |
xx |
0 |
1981 |
Xx |
0 |
1991 |
xx |
-2 |
2001 |
xx |
4 |
2011 |
xx |
10 |
|
1962 |
xx |
2 |
1972 |
xx |
3 |
1982 |
Xx |
-4 |
1992 |
xx |
3 |
2002 |
xx |
8 |
2012 |
xx |
NA |
|
1963 |
xx |
0 |
1973 |
xx |
-9 |
1983 |
xx
|
6 |
1993 |
xx |
-7 |
2003 |
xx |
-2 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1964 |
xx |
-8 |
1974 |
xx |
-7 |
1984 |
Xx |
3 |
1994 |
xx |
9 |
2004 |
xx |
-2 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1965 |
xx |
-6 |
1975 |
xx |
-1 |
1985 |
Xx |
-11 |
1995 |
xx |
3 |
2005 |
xx |
5 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2011
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1986,1985
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
|
0.18 |
0.2 |
0.16 |
0.05 |
-0.02 |
-0.03 |
-0.02 |
-0.02 |
-0.06 |
-0.18 |
-0.27 |
-0.24 |
-0.16 |
-0.14 |
-0.14 |
-0.15 |
-0.12 |
0.02 |
0.19 |
0.34 |
0.41 |
|
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON13 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
One month ago
|
0.38 |
0.43 |
0.51 |
0.45 |
0.31 |
0.18 |
0.08 |
0 |
-0.07 |
-0.18 |
-0.34 |
-0.47 |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
-0.5 |
-0.42 |
-0.34 |
-0.25 |
-0.07 |
0.15 |
0.33 |
|
SON12 |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON13 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
Two months ago:
|
0.49 |
0.52 |
0.62 |
0.66 |
0.49 |
0.33 |
0.17 |
0.01 |
-0.11 |
-0.16 |
-0.24 |
-0.37 |
-0.54 |
-0.67 |
-0.66 |
-0.57 |
-0.48 |
-0.4 |
-0.33 |
-0.2 |
0.02 |
|
SON12 |
NDJ |
JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
Three months ago
|
0.65 |
0.63 |
0.69 |
0.8 |
0.75 |
0.58 |
0.41 |
0.19 |
-0.01 |
-0.14 |
-0.16 |
-0.22 |
-0.32 |
-0.64 |
-0.68 |
-0.69 |
-0.64 |
-0.6 |
-0.53 |
-0.44 |
-0.32 |
|
JAS |
SON2012 |
NDJ |
JFM2013 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2014 |
MAM |
Four months ago:
|
0.47 |
0.46 |
0.47 |
0.53 |
0.57 |
0.54 |
0.4 |
0.27 |
0.05 |
-0.14 |
-0.26 |
-0.23 |
-0.24 |
-0.41 |
-0.53 |
-0.51 |
-0.45 |
-0.38 |
-0.34 |
-0.32 |
-0.27 |
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|
JAS2012 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2013 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2014 |
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Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo, as of the May 2011 release. Older forecasts
(previous to May 2011 release) are relative to 71-2000