HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was about -0.21 C for AMJ2013, little change from MAM2013.
The CA method, acting on global AMJ2013 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members staying in the neutral zone for Nino34 until ASO. By the fall of 2013 25% of its members are <-.5 but none <-1.0. Several members have a remarkable opinion: regardless of what 2013 brings (+ve or –ve) they grow >+0.5 in 2014.
Weights have changed more than usual from last month. 1987 (thru December 2012 that particular past situation was labeled 1986) has now been holding on to a large negative weight for more than a whole year: since spring 2012. 1962 is +10, remarkable for such an old year, given climate change. Very few big +ve weights.
OCN flavor is visible but weak. The last 13 years have a +ve weight except for 2004. 1986-1999 is solidly negative except for 3 years that are weak positive.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string MJJ2012 thru AMJ2013). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2012 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2012). Data currently thru June 2013.
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
1956 |
xx |
-1 |
1966 |
xx |
2 |
1976 |
Xx |
-7 |
1986 |
xx |
-8 |
1996 |
xx |
-2 |
2006 |
xx |
0 |
1957 |
xx |
2 |
1967 |
xx |
-3 |
1977 |
Xx |
3 |
1987 |
xx |
-13 |
1997 |
xx |
-1 |
2007 |
xx |
2 |
1958 |
xx |
4 |
1968 |
xx |
4 |
1978 |
Xx |
9 |
1988 |
xx |
2 |
1998 |
xx |
-5 |
2008 |
xx |
7 |
1959 |
xx |
-3 |
1969 |
xx |
-9 |
1979 |
Xx |
8 |
1989 |
xx |
-1 |
1999 |
xx |
-1 |
2009 |
xx |
14 |
1960 |
xx |
-2 |
1970 |
xx |
8 |
1980 |
Xx |
-5 |
1990 |
xx |
6 |
2000 |
xx |
3 |
2010 |
xx |
9 |
1961 |
xx |
-11 |
1971 |
xx |
-4 |
1981 |
Xx |
-4 |
1991 |
xx |
-2 |
2001 |
xx |
3 |
2011 |
xx |
3 |
1962 |
xx |
10 |
1972 |
xx |
0 |
1982 |
Xx |
1 |
1992 |
xx |
1 |
2002 |
xx |
7 |
2012 |
xx |
6 |
1963 |
xx |
4 |
1973 |
xx |
1 |
1983 |
xx
|
-10 |
1993 |
xx |
-6 |
2003 |
xx |
0 |
2013 |
xx |
NA |
1964 |
xx |
7 |
1974 |
xx |
-15 |
1984 |
Xx |
6 |
1994 |
xx |
-5 |
2004 |
xx |
-2 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1965 |
xx |
-2 |
1975 |
xx |
-4 |
1985 |
Xx |
1 |
1995 |
xx |
-3 |
2005 |
xx |
4 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2009 and 1962
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1987,1983,1974,1961
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
-0.21 |
-0.21 |
-0.19 |
-0.19 |
-0.22 |
-0.2 |
-0.15 |
-0.15 |
-0.18 |
-0.18 |
-0.13 |
-0.02 |
0.09 |
0.2 |
0.22 |
0.19 |
0.19 |
0.27 |
0.43 |
0.5 |
0.46 |
MJJ13 |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ14 |
JAS |
SON14 |
NDJ |
One month ago:
-0.21 |
-0.24 |
-0.24 |
-0.2 |
-0.21 |
-0.25 |
-0.26 |
-0.26 |
-0.28 |
-0.33 |
-0.32 |
-0.28 |
-0.13 |
0.04 |
0.22 |
0.29 |
0.28 |
0.29 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.68 |
MAM13 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON14 |
NDJ |
Two months ago:
-0.29 |
-0.31 |
-0.34 |
-0.32 |
-0.27 |
-0.29 |
-0.35 |
-0.38 |
-0.41 |
-0.48 |
-0.58 |
-0.58 |
-0.51 |
-0.35 |
-0.2 |
0.02 |
0.16 |
0.19 |
0.18 |
0.25 |
0.41 |
MAM13 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM14 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
Three months ago:
-0.41 |
-0.4 |
-0.46 |
-0.58 |
-0.6 |
-0.61 |
-0.68 |
-0.8 |
-0.88 |
-0.93 |
-0.99 |
-1.09 |
-1.01 |
-0.83 |
-0.56 |
-0.23 |
0.13 |
0.39 |
0.42 |
0.46 |
0.57 |
JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
Four months ago
-0.38 |
-0.38 |
-0.42 |
-0.5 |
-0.52 |
-0.5 |
-0.49 |
-0.59 |
-0.71 |
-0.77 |
-0.77 |
-0.79 |
-0.85 |
-0.75 |
-0.6 |
-0.36 |
-0.04 |
0.31 |
0.59 |
0.64 |
0.67 |
JFM13 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON13 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS14 |
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Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo, as of the May 2011 release. Older forecasts
(previous to May 2011 release) are relative to 71-2000