HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was about -0.23 C for ASO2013, no change from JAS2013 (-0.20).
The CA method, acting on global ASO2013 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members staying negative in the neutral zone for Nino34 thru NDJ. By DJF of 2013/14 only one of its members is briefly <-.5 but none <-1.0. All other members are between zero and -0.5. A majority of members grow >+0.5 or even >1.0C in 2014.
Weights have changed little from last month, so we continue to see few large weights. 1987 (thru December 2012 that particular past situation was labeled 1986) has now been holding on to a large negative weight for more than one year and a half: since spring 2012.
OCN flavor is quite visible. The last 13 years all have a +ve weight. 1980-1999 is solidly negative except for a few years that are positive.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string SON2012 thru ASO2013). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2012 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2012). Data currently thru Oct 2013.
|
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
|
1956 |
xx |
1 |
1966 |
xx |
0 |
1976 |
Xx |
-2 |
1986 |
xx |
-7 |
1996 |
xx |
3 |
2006 |
xx |
2 |
|
1957 |
xx |
5 |
1967 |
xx |
6 |
1977 |
Xx |
4 |
1987 |
xx |
-11 |
1997 |
xx |
-7 |
2007 |
xx |
3 |
|
1958 |
xx |
4 |
1968 |
xx |
0 |
1978 |
Xx |
4 |
1988 |
xx |
-1 |
1998 |
xx |
-3 |
2008 |
xx |
8 |
|
1959 |
xx |
3 |
1969 |
xx |
2 |
1979 |
Xx |
11 |
1989 |
xx |
-3 |
1999 |
xx |
-8 |
2009 |
xx |
6 |
|
1960 |
xx |
-2 |
1970 |
xx |
4 |
1980 |
Xx |
-7 |
1990 |
xx |
11 |
2000 |
xx |
6 |
2010 |
xx |
13 |
|
1961 |
xx |
-6 |
1971 |
xx |
-1 |
1981 |
Xx |
-1 |
1991 |
xx |
-3 |
2001 |
xx |
9 |
2011 |
xx |
8 |
|
1962 |
xx |
0 |
1972 |
xx |
4 |
1982 |
Xx |
-5 |
1992 |
xx |
-2 |
2002 |
xx |
3 |
2012 |
xx |
5 |
|
1963 |
xx |
-6 |
1973 |
xx |
-1 |
1983 |
xx
|
-8 |
1993 |
xx |
-11 |
2003 |
xx |
4 |
2013 |
xx |
NA |
|
1964 |
xx |
-3 |
1974 |
xx |
-6 |
1984 |
Xx |
2 |
1994 |
xx |
2 |
2004 |
xx |
1 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1965 |
xx |
-3 |
1975 |
xx |
-6 |
1985 |
Xx |
-8 |
1995 |
xx |
0 |
2005 |
xx |
6 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2010,1990, and 1979
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1993,1987
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
|
-0.23 |
-0.25 |
-0.26 |
-0.27 |
-0.32 |
-0.31 |
-0.25 |
-0.09 |
0.15 |
0.34 |
0.4 |
0.32 |
0.3 |
0.42 |
0.61 |
0.65 |
0.55 |
0.41 |
0.36 |
0.34 |
0.25 |
|
SON13 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON14 |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
One month ago
|
-0.21 |
-0.26 |
-0.28 |
-0.26 |
-0.23 |
-0.27 |
-0.28 |
-0.24 |
-0.1 |
0.17 |
0.36 |
0.44 |
0.33 |
0.33 |
0.47 |
0.73 |
0.81 |
0.73 |
0.59 |
0.53 |
0.48 |
|
JAS |
SON13 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
Two months ago:
|
-0.29 |
-0.34 |
-0.41 |
-0.41 |
-0.29 |
-0.25 |
-0.27 |
-0.27 |
-0.2 |
-0.05 |
0.2 |
0.39 |
0.49 |
0.37 |
0.35 |
0.47 |
0.73 |
0.84 |
0.76 |
0.61 |
0.51 |
|
JAS13 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
Three months ago:
|
-0.28 |
-0.31 |
-0.37 |
-0.44 |
-0.39 |
-0.28 |
-0.25 |
-0.29 |
-0.28 |
-0.2 |
-0.03 |
0.17 |
0.33 |
0.39 |
0.33 |
0.32 |
0.42 |
0.63 |
0.72 |
0.67 |
0.55 |
|
MJJ13 |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
Four months ago
|
-0.21 |
-0.21 |
-0.19 |
-0.19 |
-0.22 |
-0.2 |
-0.15 |
-0.15 |
-0.18 |
-0.18 |
-0.13 |
-0.02 |
0.09 |
0.2 |
0.22 |
0.19 |
0.19 |
0.27 |
0.43 |
0.5 |
0.46 |
|
MJJ13 |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ14 |
JAS |
SON14 |
NDJ |
Anomalies relative to
1981-2010 climo.