HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was about -0.13 C for OND2013, a continued very slightly –ve value.
The CA method, acting on global OND2013 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members staying negative in the neutral zone for Nino34 thru DJF. By late spring 2014 a majority of members is neutral, but now on the positive side, and a few grow >+0.5 later in 2014.
Weights have changed from last month, with some increase in weights. 1987 (thru December 2012 that particular past situation was labeled 1986) has now been holding on to a large negative weight for more than one year and a half: since spring 2012.
OCN flavor is quite visible. The last 13 years all have a +ve weight. 1980-1999 is solidly negative except for a few years that are positive.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string NDJ2012 thru OND2013). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2012 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2012). Data currently thru Dec 2013.
|
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP
|
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
|
1956 |
xx |
3 |
1966 |
xx |
-2 |
1976 |
Xx |
-3 |
1986 |
xx |
-3 |
1996 |
xx |
4 |
2006 |
xx |
1 |
|
1957 |
xx |
6 |
1967 |
xx |
3 |
1977 |
Xx |
0 |
1987 |
xx |
-14 |
1997 |
xx |
-6 |
2007 |
xx |
6 |
|
1958 |
xx |
6 |
1968 |
xx |
-3 |
1978 |
Xx |
4 |
1988 |
xx |
3 |
1998 |
xx |
-1 |
2008 |
xx |
5 |
|
1959 |
xx |
3 |
1969 |
xx |
4 |
1979 |
Xx |
8 |
1989 |
xx |
7 |
1999 |
xx |
-12 |
2009 |
xx |
10 |
|
1960 |
xx |
-2 |
1970 |
xx |
3 |
1980 |
Xx |
-6 |
1990 |
xx |
11 |
2000 |
xx |
2 |
2010 |
xx |
0 |
|
1961 |
xx |
5 |
1971 |
xx |
-2 |
1981 |
Xx |
-4 |
1991 |
xx |
-8 |
2001 |
xx |
10 |
2011 |
xx |
12 |
|
1962 |
xx |
-2 |
1972 |
xx |
12 |
1982 |
Xx |
-4 |
1992 |
xx |
-6 |
2002 |
xx |
5 |
2012 |
xx |
8 |
|
1963 |
xx |
-5 |
1973 |
xx |
1 |
1983 |
xx
|
-6 |
1993 |
xx |
-11 |
2003 |
xx |
5 |
2013 |
xx |
NA |
|
1964 |
xx |
0 |
1974 |
xx |
-6 |
1984 |
Xx |
-2 |
1994 |
xx |
4 |
2004 |
xx |
3 |
xx |
Xx |
|
|
1965 |
xx |
-5 |
1975 |
xx |
-5 |
1985 |
Xx |
-4 |
1995 |
xx |
1 |
2005 |
xx |
4 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2011, 2009, 2001,1990,1972
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1999,1993,1987
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
|
-0.13 |
-0.11 |
-0.12 |
-0.13 |
-0.12 |
-0.04 |
0.13 |
0.27 |
0.37 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.35 |
0.46 |
0.42 |
0.32 |
0.25 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
0.17 |
0.1 |
0.05 |
|
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
One month ago
|
-0.14 |
-0.14 |
-0.12 |
-0.17 |
-0.19 |
-0.16 |
-0.04 |
0.14 |
0.27 |
0.32 |
0.25 |
0.22 |
0.27 |
0.38 |
0.36 |
0.26 |
0.18 |
0.17 |
0.19 |
0.18 |
0.11 |
|
SON13 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON14 |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
Two months ago
|
-0.23 |
-0.25 |
-0.26 |
-0.27 |
-0.32 |
-0.31 |
-0.25 |
-0.09 |
0.15 |
0.34 |
0.4 |
0.32 |
0.3 |
0.42 |
0.61 |
0.65 |
0.55 |
0.41 |
0.36 |
0.34 |
0.25 |
|
SON13 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON14 |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
Three months ago
|
-0.21 |
-0.26 |
-0.28 |
-0.26 |
-0.23 |
-0.27 |
-0.28 |
-0.24 |
-0.1 |
0.17 |
0.36 |
0.44 |
0.33 |
0.33 |
0.47 |
0.73 |
0.81 |
0.73 |
0.59 |
0.53 |
0.48 |
|
JAS |
SON13 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
Four months ago:
|
-0.29 |
-0.34 |
-0.41 |
-0.41 |
-0.29 |
-0.25 |
-0.27 |
-0.27 |
-0.2 |
-0.05 |
0.2 |
0.39 |
0.49 |
0.37 |
0.35 |
0.47 |
0.73 |
0.84 |
0.76 |
0.61 |
0.51 |
|
JAS13 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
Anomalies relative to
1981-2010 climo.