HIGHLIGHT:  The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was about -0.45 C for JFM2014,  a continued slightly –ve value. 

The CA method, acting on global JFM2014 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members staying negative in the neutral zone for Nino34 thru MAM2014.  By early summer 2014 all members are neutral, but now on the positive side, and a majority grows >+0.5 later in 2014, one to +1.3K

Weights have changed some from last month, in particular some rather large weights are showing up like 2003 with +0.20 and 2000 with -0.17. There are 7 (5) large +ve (-ve) weights. 1988 (thru December 2012 that particular past situation was labeled 1986, and thru last month it was labelled 1987)  at -0.10 has now been holding on to a large negative weight for two years: since spring 2012.  A remarkable case of determinism.

OCN flavor is weak. The last 13 years have generally +ve weight, but now four years are zero or mildly –ve. 1981-2000 is mainly negative, but with exceptions (1991). 1957 and 59 come in big positive.

 

Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string FMA2013 thru JFM2014). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2013 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2013). Data currently thru Mar 2014.

Year

IP

Wgt

Year

IP

Wgt

Year

IP

Wgt

Year

IP

Wgt

Year

IP

Wgt

Year

IP

Weigt

1956

xx

-5

1966

xx

-10

1976

Xx

-4

1986

xx

5

1996

xx

2

2006

xx

2

1957

xx

12

1967

xx

0

1977

Xx

0

1987

xx

-9

1997

xx

9

2007

xx

2

1958

xx

3

1968

xx

1

1978

Xx

-3

1988

xx

-10

1998

xx

-11

2008

xx

2

1959

xx

13

1969

xx

-6

1979

Xx

-3

1989

xx

0

1999

xx

-2

2009

xx

11

1960

xx

-7

1970

xx

-4

1980

Xx

8

1990

xx

5

2000

xx

-17

2010

xx

6

1961

xx

-2

1971

xx

2

1981

Xx

-7

1991

xx

14

2001

xx

3

2011

xx

-1

1962

xx

5

1972

xx

4

1982

Xx

-12

1992

xx

-3

2002

xx

-2

2012

xx

12

1963

xx

5

1973

xx

10

1983

xx

-7

1993

xx

-4

2003

xx

20

2013

xx

7

1964

xx

-8

1974

xx

6

1984

Xx

3

1994

xx

-7

2004

xx

-1

xx

Xx

1965

xx

-9

1975

xx

-2

1985

Xx

2

1995

xx

-1

2005

xx

7

xx

Xx

 

Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2012, 2009, 2003, 1991, 1973, 1959, 1957

Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 2000,1998,1988,1982,1966

 

Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):

-0.45

-0.4

-0.27

0.02

0.25

0.42

0.41

0.41

0.51

0.68

0.72

0.62

0.49

0.4

0.31

0.19

0.11

0.07

0.1

0.11

0.11

JFM14

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON14

NDJ

JFM15

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON

One month ago:

-0.37

-0.37

-0.34

-0.25

-0.1

0.07

0.19

0.14

0.12

0.2

0.37

0.4

0.34

0.32

0.29

0.3

0.3

0.28

0.3

0.32

0.34

JFM14

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON14

NDJ

JFM15

MAM

MJJ

JAS

Two months ago:

-0.13

-0.17

-0.21

-0.24

-0.16

0.01

0.17

0.32

0.29

0.34

0.43

0.6

0.61

0.54

0.43

0.39

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.26

0.28

NDJ

JFM14

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON

NDJ

JFM15

MAM

MJJ

JAS

Three months ago:

-0.13

-0.11

-0.12

-0.13

-0.12

-0.04

0.13

0.27

0.37

0.3

0.3

0.35

0.46

0.42

0.32

0.25

0.22

0.22

0.17

0.1

0.05

NDJ

JFM14

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON

NDJ

JFM15

MAM

MJJ

Four months ago

-0.14

-0.14

-0.12

-0.17

-0.19

-0.16

-0.04

0.14

0.27

0.32

0.25

0.22

0.27

0.38

0.36

0.26

0.18

0.17

0.19

0.18

0.11

SON13

NDJ

JFM14

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON14

NDJ

JFM15

MAM

MJJ

 

Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo.