HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was about -0.45 C for JFM2014, a continued slightly –ve value.
The CA method, acting on global JFM2014 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members staying negative in the neutral zone for Nino34 thru MAM2014. By early summer 2014 all members are neutral, but now on the positive side, and a majority grows >+0.5 later in 2014, one to +1.3K
Weights have changed some from last month, in particular some rather large weights are showing up like 2003 with +0.20 and 2000 with -0.17. There are 7 (5) large +ve (-ve) weights. 1988 (thru December 2012 that particular past situation was labeled 1986, and thru last month it was labelled 1987) at -0.10 has now been holding on to a large negative weight for two years: since spring 2012. A remarkable case of determinism.
OCN flavor is weak. The last 13 years have generally +ve weight, but now four years are zero or mildly –ve. 1981-2000 is mainly negative, but with exceptions (1991). 1957 and 59 come in big positive.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string FMA2013 thru JFM2014). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2013 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2013). Data currently thru Mar 2014.
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
1956 |
xx |
-5 |
1966 |
xx |
-10 |
1976 |
Xx |
-4 |
1986 |
xx |
5 |
1996 |
xx |
2 |
2006 |
xx |
2 |
1957 |
xx |
12 |
1967 |
xx |
0 |
1977 |
Xx |
0 |
1987 |
xx |
-9 |
1997 |
xx |
9 |
2007 |
xx |
2 |
1958 |
xx |
3 |
1968 |
xx |
1 |
1978 |
Xx |
-3 |
1988 |
xx |
-10 |
1998 |
xx |
-11 |
2008 |
xx |
2 |
1959 |
xx |
13 |
1969 |
xx |
-6 |
1979 |
Xx |
-3 |
1989 |
xx |
0 |
1999 |
xx |
-2 |
2009 |
xx |
11 |
1960 |
xx |
-7 |
1970 |
xx |
-4 |
1980 |
Xx |
8 |
1990 |
xx |
5 |
2000 |
xx |
-17 |
2010 |
xx |
6 |
1961 |
xx |
-2 |
1971 |
xx |
2 |
1981 |
Xx |
-7 |
1991 |
xx |
14 |
2001 |
xx |
3 |
2011 |
xx |
-1 |
1962 |
xx |
5 |
1972 |
xx |
4 |
1982 |
Xx |
-12 |
1992 |
xx |
-3 |
2002 |
xx |
-2 |
2012 |
xx |
12 |
1963 |
xx |
5 |
1973 |
xx |
10 |
1983 |
xx |
-7 |
1993 |
xx |
-4 |
2003 |
xx |
20 |
2013 |
xx |
7 |
1964 |
xx |
-8 |
1974 |
xx |
6 |
1984 |
Xx |
3 |
1994 |
xx |
-7 |
2004 |
xx |
-1 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1965 |
xx |
-9 |
1975 |
xx |
-2 |
1985 |
Xx |
2 |
1995 |
xx |
-1 |
2005 |
xx |
7 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2012, 2009, 2003, 1991, 1973, 1959, 1957
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 2000,1998,1988,1982,1966
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
-0.45 |
-0.4 |
-0.27 |
0.02 |
0.25 |
0.42 |
0.41 |
0.41 |
0.51 |
0.68 |
0.72 |
0.62 |
0.49 |
0.4 |
0.31 |
0.19 |
0.11 |
0.07 |
0.1 |
0.11 |
0.11 |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON14 |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
One month ago:
-0.37 |
-0.37 |
-0.34 |
-0.25 |
-0.1 |
0.07 |
0.19 |
0.14 |
0.12 |
0.2 |
0.37 |
0.4 |
0.34 |
0.32 |
0.29 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.28 |
0.3 |
0.32 |
0.34 |
|
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON14 |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
Two months ago:
-0.13 |
-0.17 |
-0.21 |
-0.24 |
-0.16 |
0.01 |
0.17 |
0.32 |
0.29 |
0.34 |
0.43 |
0.6 |
0.61 |
0.54 |
0.43 |
0.39 |
0.35 |
0.3 |
0.25 |
0.26 |
0.28 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
Three months ago:
-0.13 |
-0.11 |
-0.12 |
-0.13 |
-0.12 |
-0.04 |
0.13 |
0.27 |
0.37 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.35 |
0.46 |
0.42 |
0.32 |
0.25 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
0.17 |
0.1 |
0.05 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
Four months ago
-0.14 |
-0.14 |
-0.12 |
-0.17 |
-0.19 |
-0.16 |
-0.04 |
0.14 |
0.27 |
0.32 |
0.25 |
0.22 |
0.27 |
0.38 |
0.36 |
0.26 |
0.18 |
0.17 |
0.19 |
0.18 |
0.11 |
SON13 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON14 |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo.