HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was about -0.19 C for FMA2014, a continued slightly –ve value.
The CA method, acting on global FMA2014 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members going positive but in the neutral zone for Nino34 thru MJJ2014. By summer 2014 the first members pass the +0.5C threshold, and nearly all members grow >+0.5 later in 2014, and three members to +1.0K or more.
Weights have changed mildly from last month, in particular some rather large weights are showing up like 2003 with +0.26 and 2000 with -0.17. The last 10 years have unusually small weights and some older years have unusually high weights (1959). There are 4 (6) large +ve (-ve) weights.
1988 (thru December 2012 that particular past situation was labeled 1986, and thru last month it was labelled 1987) is no longer below -0.10 so its two year run of holding on to a large negative weight has come to an end. A remarkable case of determinism.
OCN flavor is weak. The last 13 years have generally +ve weight, but now four years are zero or mildly –ve. 1981-2000 is mainly negative, but with exceptions (1991). 1959 comes in big positive.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string MAM2013 thru FMA2014). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2013 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2013). Data currently thru Apr 2014.
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
1956 |
xx |
-5 |
1966 |
xx |
-10 |
1976 |
Xx |
1 |
1986 |
xx |
7 |
1996 |
xx |
2 |
2006 |
xx |
-5 |
1957 |
xx |
8 |
1967 |
xx |
-2 |
1977 |
Xx |
-1 |
1987 |
xx |
-6 |
1997 |
xx |
9 |
2007 |
xx |
7 |
1958 |
xx |
0 |
1968 |
xx |
-1 |
1978 |
Xx |
2 |
1988 |
xx |
-8 |
1998 |
xx |
-10 |
2008 |
xx |
-2 |
1959 |
xx |
16 |
1969 |
xx |
-8 |
1979 |
Xx |
3 |
1989 |
xx |
2 |
1999 |
xx |
-2 |
2009 |
xx |
4 |
1960 |
xx |
-7 |
1970 |
xx |
-4 |
1980 |
Xx |
6 |
1990 |
xx |
1 |
2000 |
xx |
-17 |
2010 |
xx |
6 |
1961 |
xx |
-1 |
1971 |
xx |
1 |
1981 |
Xx |
-6 |
1991 |
xx |
14 |
2001 |
xx |
-3 |
2011 |
xx |
3 |
1962 |
xx |
6 |
1972 |
xx |
4 |
1982 |
Xx |
-9 |
1992 |
xx |
1 |
2002 |
xx |
1 |
2012 |
xx |
14 |
1963 |
xx |
4 |
1973 |
xx |
7 |
1983 |
xx |
-11 |
1993 |
xx |
-2 |
2003 |
xx |
26 |
2013 |
xx |
5 |
1964 |
xx |
-10 |
1974 |
xx |
8 |
1984 |
Xx |
-2 |
1994 |
xx |
-5 |
2004 |
xx |
1 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1965 |
xx |
-11 |
1975 |
xx |
-2 |
1985 |
Xx |
1 |
1995 |
xx |
-2 |
2005 |
xx |
6 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2012, 2003, 1991,1959
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 2000,1998,1983,1966,1965,1964
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
-0.45 |
-0.4 |
-0.27 |
0.02 |
0.25 |
0.42 |
0.41 |
0.41 |
0.51 |
0.68 |
0.72 |
0.62 |
0.49 |
0.4 |
0.31 |
0.19 |
0.11 |
0.07 |
0.1 |
0.11 |
0.11 |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON14 |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
One month ago:
-0.37 |
-0.37 |
-0.34 |
-0.25 |
-0.1 |
0.07 |
0.19 |
0.14 |
0.12 |
0.2 |
0.37 |
0.4 |
0.34 |
0.32 |
0.29 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.28 |
0.3 |
0.32 |
0.34 |
|
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON14 |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
Two months ago:
-0.13 |
-0.17 |
-0.21 |
-0.24 |
-0.16 |
0.01 |
0.17 |
0.32 |
0.29 |
0.34 |
0.43 |
0.6 |
0.61 |
0.54 |
0.43 |
0.39 |
0.35 |
0.3 |
0.25 |
0.26 |
0.28 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
Three months ago:
-0.13 |
-0.11 |
-0.12 |
-0.13 |
-0.12 |
-0.04 |
0.13 |
0.27 |
0.37 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.35 |
0.46 |
0.42 |
0.32 |
0.25 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
0.17 |
0.1 |
0.05 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
Four months ago
-0.14 |
-0.14 |
-0.12 |
-0.17 |
-0.19 |
-0.16 |
-0.04 |
0.14 |
0.27 |
0.32 |
0.25 |
0.22 |
0.27 |
0.38 |
0.36 |
0.26 |
0.18 |
0.17 |
0.19 |
0.18 |
0.11 |
SON13 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON14 |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo.