HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was substantially positive at 0.37 C for AMJ2014, but not yet +0.5 or better.

The CA method, acting on global AMJ2014 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members staying positive but in the neutral zone for Nino34 thru MJJ2014. By JJA 2014 six out of twelve members pass the +0.5C threshold, and all members grow >+0.5 soon thereafter, and eleven members to +1.0K or more by late 2014, max=1.38K.

Weights have changed from last month, indicative of a situation with larger than normal uncertainty. The last 10 years no longer have positive weights only and some older years have unusually high weights (1959 +0.17). There are 9 (6) large +ve (-ve) weights in excess of abs(0.10).

1988 (thru December 2012 that particular past situation was labeled 1986, and thru last month it was labelled 1987) carries on at -0.14. A remarkable case of determinism, lasting 2 years and ongoing still.

Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string MJJ2013 thru AMJ2014). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2013 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2013). Data currently thru Jun 2014.

Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Weigt
1956	xx	-6	1966	xx	-6	1976	Xx	-2	1986	xx	6	1996	xx	2	2006	xx	-7
1957	xx	12	1967	xx	-6	1977	Xx	0	1987	xx	-4	1997	xx	12	2007	xx	-4
1958	xx	-2	1968	xx	3	1978	Xx	6	1988	xx	-14	1998	xx	-2	2008	xx	-2
1959	xx	17	1969	xx	-10	1979	Xx	5	1989	xx	-1	1999	xx	-10	2009	xx	12
1960	xx	-5	1970	xx	1	1980	Xx	-5	1990	xx	8	2000	xx	-15	2010	xx	11
1961	xx	-8	1971	xx	-7	1981	Xx	-4	1991	xx	9	2001	xx	6	2011	xx	13
1962	xx	5	1972	xx	-1	1982	Xx	-7	1992	xx	3	2002	xx	10	2012	xx	4
1963	xx	4	1973	xx	5	1983	xx	-8	1993	xx	-3	2003	xx	12	2013	xx	9
1964	xx	-11	1974	xx	11	1984	Xx	-7	1994	xx	-4	2004	xx	-3		xx	Xx
1965	xx	-11	1975	xx	0	1985	Xx	3	1995	xx	-4	2005	xx	5		xx	Xx

Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2011, 2010, 2009, 2003, 2002,1997,1974,1959,1957

Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 2000, 1999, 1988,1969,1965,1964

Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):

0.37	0.4	0.51	0.56	0.63	0.81	1.05	1.15	1.1	0.96	0.74	0.59	0.39	0.21	0.11	0.1	0.1	0.12	0.16	0.16	0.11
	MJJ		JAS14		SON		NDJ		JFM15		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON15		NDJ

One month ago:

0.13	0.16	0.3	0.5	0.48	0.51	0.64	0.82	0.89	0.83	0.7	0.55	0.46	0.25	0.13	0.04	0.1	0.08	0.04	0	-0.02
MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM		MAM2015		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ

Two months ago:

-0.45	-0.4	-0.27	0.02	0.25	0.42	0.41	0.41	0.51	0.68	0.72	0.62	0.49	0.4	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.07	0.1	0.11	0.11
JFM14		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON14		NDJ		JFM15		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON

Three month ago:

-0.37	-0.37	-0.34	-0.25	-0.1	0.07	0.19	0.14	0.12	0.2	0.37	0.4	0.34	0.32	0.29	0.3	0.3	0.28	0.3	0.32	0.34
	JFM14		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON14		NDJ		JFM15		MAM		MJJ		JAS

Four months ago:

-0.13	-0.17	-0.21	-0.24	-0.16	0.01	0.17	0.32	0.29	0.34	0.43	0.6	0.61	0.54	0.43	0.39	0.35	0.3	0.25	0.26	0.28
NDJ		JFM14		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM15		MAM		MJJ		JAS

Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo.