HIGHLIGHT:  The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was positive at 0.41 C for MJJ2014, not much higher than in AMJ. 

The CA method, acting on global AMJ2014 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members staying positive but in the neutral zone for Nino34 thru JJA2014.  By ASO 2014 most of the twelve members have exceeded the +0.5C threshold, and eleven members to +1.0K or more by late 2014, max=1.40K.

Some of the larger weights have changed from last month, indicative of an unsettled situation. There are many large weights, especially +ve weights.  There are 11 (6) large +ve (-ve) weights in excess of abs(0.10). The last 10-15 years no longer have positive weights only and some older years have unusually high weights (1959 +0.17). 1988 (thru December 2012 that particular past situation was labeled 1986, and thru last month it was labelled 1987) carries on at -0.11. A remarkable case of determinism, lasting more than 2 years and ongoing still. 

Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string JJA2013 thru MJJ2014). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2013 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2013). Data currently thru Jul 2014.

Year

IP

Wgt

Year

IP

Wgt

Year

IP

Wgt

Year

IP

Wgt

Year

IP

Wgt

Year

IP

Weigt

1956

xx

-5

1966

xx

-7

1976

Xx

1

1986

xx

6

1996

xx

0

2006

xx

-6

1957

xx

15

1967

xx

-3

1977

Xx

0

1987

xx

-7

1997

xx

11

2007

xx

-4

1958

xx

0

1968

xx

10

1978

Xx

2

1988

xx

-11

1998

xx

-2

2008

xx

-1

1959

xx

12

1969

xx

-8

1979

Xx

5

1989

xx

3

1999

xx

-13

2009

xx

11

1960

xx

-5

1970

xx

-3

1980

Xx

-5

1990

xx

11

2000

xx

-10

2010

xx

15

1961

xx

-15

1971

xx

-5

1981

Xx

-4

1991

xx

9

2001

xx

7

2011

xx

10

1962

xx

2

1972

xx

1

1982

Xx

-5

1992

xx

3

2002

xx

11

2012

xx

5

1963

xx

1

1973

xx

6

1983

xx

-8

1993

xx

-2

2003

xx

8

2013

xx

10

1964

xx

-12

1974

xx

10

1984

Xx

-4

1994

xx

-6

2004

xx

-6

xx

Xx

1965

xx

-12

1975

xx

-2

1985

Xx

-2

1995

xx

-4

2005

xx

3

xx

Xx

 

Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2013,2011, 2010, 2009, 2002,1997,1990,1974,1968,1959,1957

Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 2000, 1999, 1988,1965,1964,1961

 

Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):

 

0.41

0.45

0.5

0.6

0.78

1.01

1.16

1.16

1.06

0.83

0.67

0.47

0.34

0.16

0.12

0.12

0.19

0.29

0.33

0.29

0.21

MJJ

JAS14

SON

NDJ

JFM15

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON15

NDJ

JFM16

 

One month ago

0.37

0.4

0.51

0.56

0.63

0.81

1.05

1.15

1.1

0.96

0.74

0.59

0.39

0.21

0.11

0.1

0.1

0.12

0.16

0.16

0.11

MJJ

JAS14

SON

NDJ

JFM15

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON15

NDJ

Two months ago:

0.13

0.16

0.3

0.5

0.48

0.51

0.64

0.82

0.89

0.83

0.7

0.55

0.46

0.25

0.13

0.04

0.1

0.08

0.04

0

-0.02

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON

NDJ

JFM

MAM2015

MJJ

JAS

SON

NDJ

Three months ago:

-0.45

-0.4

-0.27

0.02

0.25

0.42

0.41

0.41

0.51

0.68

0.72

0.62

0.49

0.4

0.31

0.19

0.11

0.07

0.1

0.11

0.11

JFM14

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON14

NDJ

JFM15

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON

Four month ago:

-0.37

-0.37

-0.34

-0.25

-0.1

0.07

0.19

0.14

0.12

0.2

0.37

0.4

0.34

0.32

0.29

0.3

0.3

0.28

0.3

0.32

0.34

JFM14

MAM

MJJ

JAS

SON14

NDJ

JFM15

MAM

MJJ

JAS

 

Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo.