HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was positive at 0.29 C for JJA2014, down from MJJ.
The CA method, acting on global JJA2014 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members staying positive for the rest of 2014. By OND 2014 all twelve members have exceeded the +0.5C threshold, and 5 members have risen to +1.0K or more by late 2014, max=1.2K. The forecast has cooled off relative to last month by about 2 tenths.
Many of the weights have changed some from last month, indicative of an unsettled situation and forecast uncertainty. There are 6 (6) large +ve (-ve) weights in excess of abs(0.10). The last 10-15 years no longer have positive weights only and some older years have unusually high weights (1957 +0.15). 1988 (thru December 2012 that particular past situation was labeled 1986, and thru Dec 2013 it was labelled 1987) carries on at -0.10. A remarkable case of determinism, lasting more than 2 years and ongoing still.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string JAS2013 thru JJA2014). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2013 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2013). Data currently thru Aug 2014.
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
1956 |
xx |
-4 |
1966 |
xx |
-9 |
1976 |
Xx |
4 |
1986 |
xx |
2 |
1996 |
xx |
1 |
2006 |
xx |
-6 |
1957 |
xx |
15 |
1967 |
xx |
7 |
1977 |
Xx |
2 |
1987 |
xx |
-14 |
1997 |
xx |
9 |
2007 |
xx |
-3 |
1958 |
xx |
4 |
1968 |
xx |
8 |
1978 |
Xx |
0 |
1988 |
xx |
-10 |
1998 |
xx |
0 |
2008 |
xx |
0 |
1959 |
xx |
14 |
1969 |
xx |
-4 |
1979 |
Xx |
3 |
1989 |
xx |
2 |
1999 |
xx |
-13 |
2009 |
xx |
16 |
1960 |
xx |
-5 |
1970 |
xx |
-3 |
1980 |
Xx |
-5 |
1990 |
xx |
8 |
2000 |
xx |
-6 |
2010 |
xx |
11 |
1961 |
xx |
-14 |
1971 |
xx |
-4 |
1981 |
Xx |
-2 |
1991 |
xx |
11 |
2001 |
xx |
7 |
2011 |
xx |
8 |
1962 |
xx |
0 |
1972 |
xx |
1 |
1982 |
Xx |
-8 |
1992 |
xx |
4 |
2002 |
xx |
9 |
2012 |
xx |
4 |
1963 |
xx |
-3 |
1973 |
xx |
1 |
1983 |
xx |
-6 |
1993 |
xx |
-3 |
2003 |
xx |
5 |
2013 |
xx |
10 |
1964 |
xx |
-14 |
1974 |
xx |
7 |
1984 |
Xx |
1 |
1994 |
xx |
-4 |
2004 |
xx |
-5 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1965 |
xx |
-15 |
1975 |
xx |
0 |
1985 |
Xx |
-4 |
1995 |
xx |
-5 |
2005 |
xx |
2 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2013, 2010, 2009, 1991,1959,1957
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1999, 1988, 1987, 1965,1964,1961
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
0.29 |
0.31 |
0.35 |
0.58 |
0.82 |
1 |
1.01 |
0.95 |
0.77 |
0.68 |
0.55 |
0.44 |
0.27 |
0.22 |
0.24 |
0.38 |
0.58 |
0.63 |
0.56 |
0.43 |
0.38 |
JAS14 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON15 |
NDJ |
JFM16 |
One month ago:
0.41 |
0.45 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.78 |
1.01 |
1.16 |
1.16 |
1.06 |
0.83 |
0.67 |
0.47 |
0.34 |
0.16 |
0.12 |
0.12 |
0.19 |
0.29 |
0.33 |
0.29 |
0.21 |
MJJ |
JAS14 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON15 |
NDJ |
JFM16 |
Two months ago
0.37 |
0.4 |
0.51 |
0.56 |
0.63 |
0.81 |
1.05 |
1.15 |
1.1 |
0.96 |
0.74 |
0.59 |
0.39 |
0.21 |
0.11 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.12 |
0.16 |
0.16 |
0.11 |
MJJ |
JAS14 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON15 |
NDJ |
Three months ago:
0.13 |
0.16 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.48 |
0.51 |
0.64 |
0.82 |
0.89 |
0.83 |
0.7 |
0.55 |
0.46 |
0.25 |
0.13 |
0.04 |
0.1 |
0.08 |
0.04 |
0 |
-0.02 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM2015 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
Four months ago:
-0.45 |
-0.4 |
-0.27 |
0.02 |
0.25 |
0.42 |
0.41 |
0.41 |
0.51 |
0.68 |
0.72 |
0.62 |
0.49 |
0.4 |
0.31 |
0.19 |
0.11 |
0.07 |
0.1 |
0.11 |
0.11 |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON14 |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo.