HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was positive at 0.60 C for SON2014, up from ASO, and the first season > 0.5C.

The CA method, acting on global SON2014 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members staying >0.50 for the rest of 2014, then continued positive until JJA 2015. Several members will have risen to near +1.0K by late 2014. The ensemble mean now peaks at 0.80 in NDJ2014/15. A weak warm event! Late in coming. Perhaps unusual in evolution.

Weights were stable from last month. There are 8 (4) large +ve (-ve) weights in excess of abs(0.10). Five years in the 1956-1965 decade have unusually high weights (like 1959 +0.22 and 1964 -0.13) – this old decade has never before been so important in constructing the analogue.

Since we expect a weak warm event this winter it is of note that 1997/98 has +0.09 and 1982/83 -0.09 weight – go figure. The other smaller but still noteworthy warm events, 57/58, 65/66, 72/73, 86/87, 91/92, and 2009/10 have these weights: +0.12, -0.12, -0.03, 0.04, +0.06, +0.11. Whether these weights (all over the place) reflect ENSO diversity (flavor) or the consequence of using SST outside Nino34 in the construction (we use global SST from 45S to 45N) is not addressed here.

Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string OND2013 thru SON2014). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2013 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2013). Data currently thru Nov 2014.

Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Weigt
1956	xx	-6	1966	xx	-7	1976	Xx	7	1986	xx	4	1996	xx	5	2006	xx	0
1957	xx	12	1967	xx	13	1977	Xx	0	1987	xx	-9	1997	xx	9	2007	xx	4
1958	xx	8	1968	xx	6	1978	Xx	-3	1988	xx	-2	1998	xx	-7	2008	xx	-1
1959	xx	22	1969	xx	1	1979	Xx	3	1989	xx	-4	1999	xx	-11	2009	xx	11
1960	xx	-7	1970	xx	0	1980	Xx	-6	1990	xx	1	2000	xx	-6	2010	xx	3
1961	xx	-7	1971	xx	-4	1981	Xx	-6	1991	xx	6	2001	xx	5	2011	xx	12
1962	xx	-3	1972	xx	-3	1982	Xx	-9	1992	xx	0	2002	xx	7	2012	xx	11
1963	xx	1	1973	xx	-5	1983	xx	3	1993	xx	-7	2003	xx	12	2013	xx	11
1964	xx	-13	1974	xx	4	1984	Xx	-4	1994	xx	-5	2004	xx	1	2014	xx	NA
1965	xx	-12	1975	xx	-2	1985	Xx	0	1995	xx	1	2005	xx	-1		xx	Xx

Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2013,2012,2011,2009, 2003,1967,1959,1957

Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1999,1982,1965,1964

Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):

0.6	0.66	0.78	0.76	0.63	0.46	0.38	0.29	0.25	0.17	0.17	0.18	0.25	0.25	0.19	0.07	0.02	0.09	0.16	0.12	-0.02
SON		NDJ		JFM15		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON15		NDJ		JFM16		MAM		MJJ

One month ago:

0.35	0.41	0.63	0.92	0.88	0.8	0.65	0.58	0.45	0.35	0.19	0.14	0.13	0.21	0.31	0.29	0.2	0.14	0.19	0.25	0.2
	SON		NDJ		JFM15		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON15		NDJ		JFM16		MAM

Two months ago

0.28	0.3	0.44	0.73	0.88	0.88	0.83	0.7	0.66	0.56	0.46	0.28	0.19	0.2	0.34	0.53	0.56	0.46	0.32	0.28	0.26
JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON15		NDJ		JFM16		MAM

Three months ago

0.29	0.31	0.35	0.58	0.82	1	1.01	0.95	0.77	0.68	0.55	0.44	0.27	0.22	0.24	0.38	0.58	0.63	0.56	0.43	0.38
	JAS14		SON		NDJ		JFM		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON15		NDJ		JFM16

Four months ago:

0.41	0.45	0.5	0.6	0.78	1.01	1.16	1.16	1.06	0.83	0.67	0.47	0.34	0.16	0.12	0.12	0.19	0.29	0.33	0.29	0.21
MJJ		JAS14		SON		NDJ		JFM15		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON15		NDJ		JFM16

Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo.