HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was positive at 0.75 C for OND2014, up from SOM, and the second season > 0.5C.
The CA method, acting on global OND2014 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members staying positive until MAM 2015. By that time all members will have fallen below 0.5C. The ensemble mean now peaks at 0.77 in NDJ2014/15. A weak warm event in terms of Nino34 SST, but late in coming. Perhaps unusual in evolution.
Weights were stable from last month. There are 8 (4) large +ve (-ve) weights in excess of abs(0.10). Five years in the 1956-1965 decade have unusually high weights (like 1959 +0.21 and 1964 -0.13) – this old decade has never before been so important in constructing the analogue.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string NDJ2013 thru OND2014). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2013 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2013). Data currently thru Dec 2014.
|
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
|
1956 |
xx |
-6 |
1966 |
xx |
-9 |
1976 |
Xx |
12 |
1986 |
xx |
6 |
1996 |
xx |
2 |
2006 |
xx |
3 |
|
1957 |
xx |
11 |
1967 |
xx |
14 |
1977 |
Xx |
0 |
1987 |
xx |
-9 |
1997 |
xx |
6 |
2007 |
xx |
7 |
|
1958 |
xx |
7 |
1968 |
xx |
-2 |
1978 |
Xx |
-3 |
1988 |
xx |
-3 |
1998 |
xx |
-10 |
2008 |
xx |
0 |
|
1959 |
xx |
21 |
1969 |
xx |
2 |
1979 |
Xx |
3 |
1989 |
xx |
-2 |
1999 |
xx |
-15 |
2009 |
xx |
9 |
|
1960 |
xx |
-5 |
1970 |
xx |
-2 |
1980 |
Xx |
-3 |
1990 |
xx |
2 |
2000 |
xx |
-5 |
2010 |
xx |
1 |
|
1961 |
xx |
-2 |
1971 |
xx |
-11 |
1981 |
Xx |
-5 |
1991 |
xx |
1 |
2001 |
xx |
7 |
2011 |
xx |
13 |
|
1962 |
xx |
-3 |
1972 |
xx |
-4 |
1982 |
Xx |
-9 |
1992 |
xx |
1 |
2002 |
xx |
8 |
2012 |
xx |
16 |
|
1963 |
xx |
2 |
1973 |
xx |
-5 |
1983 |
xx |
4 |
1993 |
xx |
-4 |
2003 |
xx |
12 |
2013 |
xx |
10 |
|
1964 |
xx |
-13 |
1974 |
xx |
7 |
1984 |
Xx |
-4 |
1994 |
xx |
-4 |
2004 |
xx |
-1 |
2014 |
xx |
NA |
|
1965 |
xx |
-9 |
1975 |
xx |
-1 |
1985 |
Xx |
-3 |
1995 |
xx |
6 |
2005 |
xx |
1 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2013,2012,2011,2003,1976,1967,1959,1957
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1999,1998,1971,1964
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
|
0.75 |
0.77 |
0.68 |
0.5 |
0.32 |
0.25 |
0.19 |
0.19 |
0.17 |
0.15 |
0.13 |
0.21 |
0.25 |
0.14 |
-0.01 |
-0.06 |
0.01 |
0.11 |
0.14 |
0.11 |
0.05 |
|
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON15 |
NDJ |
JFM16 |
MAM |
MJJ |
One month ago
|
0.6 |
0.66 |
0.78 |
0.76 |
0.63 |
0.46 |
0.38 |
0.29 |
0.25 |
0.17 |
0.17 |
0.18 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.19 |
0.07 |
0.02 |
0.09 |
0.16 |
0.12 |
-0.02 |
|
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON15 |
NDJ |
JFM16 |
MAM |
MJJ |
Two months ago:
|
0.35 |
0.41 |
0.63 |
0.92 |
0.88 |
0.8 |
0.65 |
0.58 |
0.45 |
0.35 |
0.19 |
0.14 |
0.13 |
0.21 |
0.31 |
0.29 |
0.2 |
0.14 |
0.19 |
0.25 |
0.2 |
|
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON15 |
NDJ |
JFM16 |
MAM |
Three months ago
|
0.28 |
0.3 |
0.44 |
0.73 |
0.88 |
0.88 |
0.83 |
0.7 |
0.66 |
0.56 |
0.46 |
0.28 |
0.19 |
0.2 |
0.34 |
0.53 |
0.56 |
0.46 |
0.32 |
0.28 |
0.26 |
|
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON15 |
NDJ |
JFM16 |
MAM |
Four months ago
|
0.29 |
0.31 |
0.35 |
0.58 |
0.82 |
1 |
1.01 |
0.95 |
0.77 |
0.68 |
0.55 |
0.44 |
0.27 |
0.22 |
0.24 |
0.38 |
0.58 |
0.63 |
0.56 |
0.43 |
0.38 |
|
JAS14 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON15 |
NDJ |
JFM16 |
Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo.