HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was 2.6 C for DJF2015/16, down from NDJ. We appear to have been at the maximum of this super warm event in the ND timeframe.

The CA method, acting on global DJF2015/16 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members, staying >1.0 for Nino34 from now thru MAM2016. There is a significant cool down predicted in 2016, ensemble mean -1.0 by late fall 2016. The first negatives in some members show up in MJJ.

There are 8 (2) large +ve (-ve) weights in excess of abs(0.10). Of the historically strong warm event years (58, 73, 83, 98) the weights are 0.12, 0.11, 0.07 and 0.14 respectively. The weight for 2014, a marginally failed warm event, continues to be high. The weight for 2015 (the string ending with DJF2014/2015), this time used for the first time is high as well, and this puts a damper on the La Nina forecast for 2016, but only for the 6 “late” members of the ensemble of 12.

There have been other changes this month. Another completed year of data was added which in view of co-linearity did change weights. The covariance matrix went up in size from 59X59 to 60X60. And the weight assigned last month to for example 1997 (the year of mid month of string NDJ) will be found under 1998 ( the year of mid month of string DJF)

Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string JFM2015 thru DJF2015/16). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2015 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2015). Data currently thru Feb 2016.

Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Weigt
1956	xx	-7	1966	Xx	-9	1976	Xx	-6	1986	xx	-5	1996	xx	-1	2006	xx	-1
1957	xx	-3	1967	Xx	-8	1977	Xx	5	1987	xx	7	1997	xx	-7	2007	xx	5
1958	xx	12	1968	Xx	-6	1978	Xx	3	1988	xx	-2	1998	xx	14	2008	xx	1
1959	xx	9	1969	Xx	4	1979	Xx	-1	1989	xx	-5	1999	xx	5	2009	xx	-2
1960	xx	15	1970	Xx	-4	1980	Xx	-2	1990	xx	-3	2000	xx	-8	2010	xx	10
1961	xx	2	1971	Xx	-9	1981	Xx	-5	1991	xx	-1	2001	xx	-2	2011	xx	3
1962	xx	-1	1972	Xx	-5	1982	Xx	-9	1992	xx	8	2002	xx	-2	2012	xx	9
1963	xx	-4	1973	Xx	11	1983	xx	7	1993	xx	-3	2003	xx	3	2013	xx	2
1964	xx	8	1974	Xx	-8	1984	Xx	-6	1994	xx	-7	2004	xx	3	2014	xx	10
1965	xx	-13	1975	Xx	2	1985	Xx	-11	1995	xx	11	2005	xx	6	2015	xx	13

Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2015, 2014, 2010,1998, 1995,1973,1960,1958

Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1985,1965

Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean of 12):

2.62	2.44	1.89	1.02	0.52	0.14	-0.23	-0.44	-0.65	-0.78	-0.93	-1	-0.98	-1.04	-0.74	-0.5	-0.36	-0.32	-0.33	-0.25	-0.25
	JFM16		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON16		NDJ		JFM17		MAM		MJJ		JAS

One month ago

2.8	2.7	2.31	1.47	0.94	0.4	-0.01	-0.4	-0.62	-0.85	-1.01	-1.19	-1.25	-1.6	-1.33	-0.91	-0.56	-0.32	-0.2	-0.11	0.04
NDJ		JFM16		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON16		NDJ		JFM17		MAM		MJJ		JAS

Two month ago:

2.79	2.78	2.61	2.04	1.45	0.95	0.46	0.09	-0.27	-0.44	-0.61	-0.7	-0.84	-1.36	-1.29	-1.05	-0.7	-0.39	-0.21	-0.11	-0.06
	NDJ		JFM16		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON16		NDJ		JFM17		MAM		MJJ

Three months ago:

2.44	2.52	2.68	2.54	2.06	1.48	1	0.5	0.13	-0.2	-0.29	-0.38	-0.43	-1	-1.08	-1.03	-0.85	-0.58	-0.33	-0.22	-0.17
SON15		NDJ		JFM16		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ16		JFM17		MAM		MJJ

Four months ago:

2.2	2.26	2.6	2.96	2.73	2.27	1.66	1.12	0.56	0.13	-0.26	-0.37	-0.46	-0.86	-1	-1.09	-1.03	-0.87	-0.61	-0.39	-0.31
	SON15		NDJ		JFM16		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM		MAM

Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo.