HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was -0.6C for SON2016, unchanged from ASO (-0.6).
NOTICE Huug van den Dool is going to retire by
12/31/2016. The constructed analogue based on global SST will continue. Please direct
questions to Peitao.Peng@noaa.gov
The CA method, acting on global SON2016 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, shows a modest cold of -0.5 or colder, but only thru NDJ16/17. Many members are colder than -0.5 by late 2016, but none colder than -0.7. By MAM 2017 this modest cold event (if the definition is even met) will be on its way to a likewise minimal warm event in summer 2017, although one member disagrees interestingly. There are 8 (5) large +ve (-ve) weights in excess of abs(0.10), listed below.
Weights for some years changed noticeably from last month, like 1976 going from -0.18 to -0.08 or 2003 jumping from 0.06 to 0.15. The weight for 1998, in the aftermath of a previous big warm event is still a large 0.21. The weight for 2015 (the string ending with SON2015) is finally getting lower: +0.06. Last year never looked like an analogue subjectively, yet the weight was positive all year. 2014 (a failed warm event of sort) still has a high weight. Some of the positive weight for the three previous years 2013, 2014 and 2015 is non-ENSO, but interdecadal or global warming like, or OCN with K=3.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string OND2015 thru SON2016). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2015 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2015). Data currently thru Nov2016.
NOTICE Huug van den Dool is going to retire by
12/31/2016. The constructed analogue based on global SST will continue. Please
direct questions to Peitao.Peng@noaa.gov
|
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
|
1956 |
xx |
-2 |
1966 |
Xx |
-7 |
1976 |
Xx |
-8 |
1986 |
xx |
6 |
1996 |
xx |
-5 |
2006 |
xx |
0 |
|
1957 |
xx |
4 |
1967 |
Xx |
-14 |
1977 |
Xx |
-11 |
1987 |
xx |
-3 |
1997 |
xx |
-6 |
2007 |
xx |
-1 |
|
1958 |
xx |
12 |
1968 |
Xx |
8 |
1978 |
Xx |
1 |
1988 |
xx |
-1 |
1998 |
xx |
21 |
2008 |
xx |
-4 |
|
1959 |
xx |
10 |
1969 |
Xx |
-2 |
1979 |
Xx |
3 |
1989 |
xx |
1 |
1999 |
xx |
-1 |
2009 |
xx |
-1 |
|
1960 |
xx |
12 |
1970 |
Xx |
-3 |
1980 |
Xx |
1 |
1990 |
xx |
-1 |
2000 |
xx |
5 |
2010 |
xx |
-2 |
|
1961 |
xx |
0 |
1971 |
Xx |
-2 |
1981 |
Xx |
4 |
1991 |
xx |
-9 |
2001 |
xx |
-2 |
2011 |
xx |
-10 |
|
1962 |
xx |
-3 |
1972 |
Xx |
-7 |
1982 |
Xx |
-1 |
1992 |
xx |
2 |
2002 |
xx |
-6 |
2012 |
xx |
2 |
|
1963 |
xx |
-4 |
1973 |
Xx |
6 |
1983 |
xx |
4 |
1993 |
xx |
-2 |
2003 |
xx |
15 |
2013 |
xx |
10 |
|
1964 |
xx |
1 |
1974 |
Xx |
-1 |
1984 |
Xx |
-7 |
1994 |
xx |
-6 |
2004 |
xx |
-4 |
2014 |
xx |
12 |
|
1965 |
xx |
-15 |
1975 |
Xx |
-5 |
1985 |
Xx |
-11 |
1995 |
xx |
2 |
2005 |
xx |
13 |
2015 |
xx |
6 |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2014, 2013,2005,2003,1998,1960,1959,1958
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 2011,1985,1977,1967,1965
NOTICE: Huug van
den Dool is going to retire by 12/31/2016. The constructed analogue based on
global SST will continue. Please direct questions to Peitao.Peng@noaa.gov
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean of 12):
|
-0.64 |
-0.66 |
-0.64 |
-0.48 |
-0.29 |
-0.06 |
0.15 |
0.28 |
0.27 |
0.27 |
0.38 |
0.48 |
0.5 |
0.52 |
0.47 |
0.34 |
0.22 |
0.17 |
0.1 |
0.02 |
-0.16 |
|
SON16 |
NDJ |
JFM17 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM18 |
MAM |
MJJ |
One month ago:
|
-0.6 |
-0.6 |
-0.59 |
-0.5 |
-0.38 |
-0.24 |
-0.05 |
0.08 |
0.1 |
-0.02 |
-0.11 |
-0.12 |
-0.11 |
-0.11 |
-0.21 |
-0.27 |
-0.3 |
-0.28 |
-0.17 |
-0.1 |
-0.06 |
|
SON |
NDJ |
JFM17 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON17 |
NDJ |
JFM18 |
MAM |
|||||||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-0.27 |
-0.3 |
-0.28 |
-0.17 |
-0.1 |
-0.06 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NDJ |
JFM18 |
MAM |
Two months ago
|
-0.53 |
-0.55 |
-0.61 |
-0.67 |
-0.61 |
-0.52 |
-0.38 |
-0.2 |
-0.06 |
-0.04 |
-0.13 |
-0.21 |
-0.19 |
-0.1 |
-0.15 |
-0.24 |
-0.31 |
-0.34 |
-0.32 |
-0.16 |
-0.05 |
|
JAS16 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM17 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM18 |
MAM |
Three months ago:
|
-0.32 |
-0.35 |
-0.42 |
-0.5 |
-0.53 |
-0.47 |
-0.38 |
-0.26 |
-0.14 |
-0.05 |
-0.08 |
-0.15 |
-0.23 |
-0.15 |
-0.07 |
-0.07 |
-0.13 |
-0.21 |
-0.23 |
-0.22 |
-0.05 |
|
JAS16 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM17 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM18 |
|||||||||||
Four months ago
|
0.04 |
-0.04 |
-0.15 |
-0.24 |
-0.2 |
-0.23 |
-0.2 |
-0.16 |
-0.08 |
-0.01 |
0.03 |
0 |
-0.05 |
-0.09 |
0.04 |
0.18 |
0.29 |
0.28 |
0.24 |
0.18 |
0.12 |
|
MJJ16 |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM17 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM18 |
Five months ago:
|
0.51 |
0.39 |
0.1 |
-0.2 |
-0.21 |
-0.16 |
-0.19 |
-0.19 |
-0.17 |
-0.12 |
-0.03 |
0 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
0 |
0.16 |
0.32 |
0.41 |
0.38 |
0.35 |
0.3 |
|
MJJ16 |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM17 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON17 |
NDJ |
Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo.