CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 28.14 27.89 27.68 27.56 27.56 27.49 27.37 27.28 27.37 27.73 28.15 28.31 28.03 27.57 27.23 27.13 27.10 1 0.43 0.47 0.50 0.53 0.60 0.61 0.55 0.46 0.37 0.38 0.45 0.47 0.32 0.15 0.05 0.10 0.14 1 28.12 27.87 27.63 27.55 27.58 27.56 27.49 27.44 27.55 27.86 28.21 28.31 27.97 27.45 27.05 26.92 26.86 2 0.41 0.44 0.46 0.53 0.62 0.67 0.67 0.62 0.56 0.51 0.51 0.46 0.26 0.02 -0.12 -0.11 -0.10 2 28.12 27.82 27.63 27.59 27.67 27.65 27.55 27.47 27.55 27.85 28.24 28.41 28.17 27.66 27.21 27.04 26.97 3 0.41 0.39 0.45 0.56 0.71 0.77 0.73 0.65 0.55 0.51 0.54 0.56 0.46 0.23 0.04 0.02 0.01 3 28.14 27.80 27.54 27.37 27.28 27.17 27.07 27.03 27.09 27.39 27.74 27.91 27.70 27.32 26.94 26.73 26.55 4 0.42 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.10 0.05 0.04 0.06 -0.01 -0.11 -0.24 -0.30 -0.41 4 28.16 27.80 27.49 27.33 27.31 27.31 27.30 27.29 27.42 27.74 28.10 28.26 27.99 27.57 27.15 26.96 26.82 5 0.45 0.38 0.31 0.31 0.35 0.42 0.48 0.47 0.42 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.28 0.14 -0.02 -0.07 -0.14 5 28.14 27.78 27.51 27.40 27.41 27.39 27.33 27.28 27.35 27.63 27.97 28.17 27.98 27.56 27.11 26.93 26.83 6 0.42 0.36 0.34 0.37 0.45 0.51 0.52 0.46 0.36 0.28 0.27 0.33 0.26 0.13 -0.07 -0.10 -0.13 6 28.11 27.83 27.61 27.51 27.52 27.46 27.31 27.13 27.03 27.16 27.38 27.46 27.21 26.79 26.37 26.13 25.94 7 0.40 0.40 0.43 0.48 0.56 0.57 0.49 0.31 0.03 -0.19 -0.32 -0.39 -0.50 -0.63 -0.80 -0.90 -1.02 7 28.10 27.79 27.54 27.43 27.42 27.40 27.33 27.20 27.17 27.35 27.57 27.63 27.31 26.83 26.34 26.10 25.94 8 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.40 0.46 0.51 0.51 0.38 0.18 0.00 -0.13 -0.21 -0.41 -0.60 -0.83 -0.93 -1.02 8 28.09 27.79 27.56 27.47 27.49 27.48 27.42 27.30 27.26 27.41 27.63 27.73 27.47 27.01 26.49 26.25 26.13 9 0.38 0.37 0.39 0.44 0.53 0.60 0.60 0.48 0.27 0.06 -0.07 -0.12 -0.24 -0.42 -0.68 -0.78 -0.84 9 28.10 27.83 27.61 27.52 27.47 27.38 27.25 27.09 27.04 27.19 27.43 27.52 27.28 26.89 26.46 26.21 25.99 10 0.39 0.40 0.43 0.49 0.51 0.50 0.44 0.27 0.04 -0.16 -0.27 -0.33 -0.44 -0.54 -0.71 -0.81 -0.97 10 28.10 27.80 27.57 27.48 27.45 27.42 27.36 27.23 27.23 27.40 27.62 27.68 27.37 26.92 26.44 26.17 25.98 11 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.46 0.49 0.54 0.54 0.42 0.23 0.05 -0.08 -0.17 -0.34 -0.50 -0.73 -0.86 -0.98 11 28.09 27.78 27.56 27.47 27.45 27.42 27.35 27.24 27.24 27.42 27.65 27.75 27.49 27.07 26.58 26.33 26.16 12 0.37 0.36 0.38 0.44 0.49 0.53 0.53 0.43 0.24 0.07 -0.05 -0.10 -0.22 -0.36 -0.60 -0.70 -0.80 12 ensemble average 28.12 27.82 27.58 27.47 27.47 27.43 27.34 27.25 27.28 27.51 27.81 27.93 27.66 27.22 26.78 26.58 26.44 0.41 0.39 0.40 0.45 0.51 0.54 0.53 0.43 0.28 0.16 0.11 0.08 -0.05 -0.21 -0.39 -0.45 -0.52 climatology 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 28.09 27.90 27.63 27.53 27.60 27.63 27.58 27.47 27.53 27.80 28.03 28.00 27.53 26.97 26.53 26.31 26.21 1 0.49 0.64 0.67 0.74 0.88 0.97 0.96 0.82 0.67 0.53 0.39 0.22 -0.07 -0.30 -0.43 -0.48 -0.52 1 28.05 27.83 27.63 27.61 27.75 27.81 27.83 27.83 27.93 28.14 28.34 28.25 27.66 26.99 26.50 26.33 26.21 2 0.46 0.57 0.67 0.82 1.03 1.14 1.21 1.18 1.06 0.88 0.71 0.47 0.06 -0.27 -0.46 -0.46 -0.51 2 28.00 27.77 27.53 27.38 27.40 27.41 27.44 27.40 27.51 27.74 27.96 27.98 27.58 27.01 26.50 26.28 26.14 3 0.41 0.51 0.57 0.59 0.68 0.74 0.81 0.75 0.65 0.48 0.32 0.20 -0.02 -0.26 -0.47 -0.51 -0.58 3 28.12 27.76 27.45 27.28 27.30 27.24 27.25 27.16 27.27 27.47 27.62 27.53 27.05 26.53 26.07 25.74 25.43 4 0.52 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.58 0.57 0.63 0.51 0.41 0.21 -0.01 -0.25 -0.55 -0.73 -0.89 -1.05 -1.29 4 28.08 27.70 27.43 27.32 27.40 27.34 27.31 27.20 27.32 27.53 27.71 27.63 27.13 26.59 26.12 25.86 25.62 5 0.49 0.44 0.47 0.54 0.67 0.67 0.69 0.55 0.45 0.26 0.07 -0.15 -0.47 -0.68 -0.84 -0.92 -1.10 5 28.04 27.71 27.48 27.34 27.38 27.33 27.33 27.22 27.31 27.53 27.74 27.76 27.33 26.82 26.31 26.07 25.90 6 0.44 0.44 0.52 0.56 0.66 0.66 0.70 0.57 0.45 0.27 0.10 -0.02 -0.27 -0.45 -0.65 -0.72 -0.82 6 28.10 27.76 27.52 27.41 27.45 27.35 27.30 27.15 27.20 27.34 27.45 27.34 26.89 26.40 25.95 25.64 25.33 7 0.50 0.50 0.56 0.63 0.73 0.68 0.67 0.50 0.33 0.07 -0.19 -0.44 -0.71 -0.86 -1.01 -1.14 -1.39 7 28.02 27.67 27.47 27.39 27.44 27.33 27.28 27.13 27.20 27.35 27.52 27.44 26.95 26.42 25.91 25.64 25.36 8 0.43 0.41 0.51 0.60 0.71 0.67 0.66 0.48 0.33 0.09 -0.12 -0.34 -0.64 -0.84 -1.05 -1.15 -1.37 8 27.99 27.64 27.45 27.33 27.35 27.24 27.22 27.08 27.14 27.33 27.50 27.48 27.02 26.49 25.95 25.68 25.46 9 0.39 0.38 0.49 0.54 0.62 0.57 0.59 0.43 0.27 0.06 -0.14 -0.30 -0.58 -0.77 -1.01 -1.11 -1.26 9 28.11 27.73 27.45 27.31 27.29 27.15 27.11 27.00 27.11 27.34 27.56 27.57 27.18 26.73 26.26 25.95 25.65 10 0.51 0.47 0.49 0.53 0.57 0.49 0.48 0.35 0.24 0.07 -0.08 -0.21 -0.42 -0.53 -0.70 -0.84 -1.07 10 28.06 27.68 27.46 27.37 27.38 27.25 27.21 27.09 27.16 27.37 27.60 27.60 27.16 26.65 26.12 25.81 25.52 11 0.46 0.41 0.50 0.59 0.65 0.58 0.59 0.44 0.30 0.10 -0.04 -0.18 -0.44 -0.62 -0.84 -0.97 -1.21 11 28.03 27.65 27.43 27.29 27.28 27.16 27.15 27.04 27.12 27.36 27.58 27.59 27.14 26.61 26.07 25.76 25.52 12 0.43 0.39 0.47 0.50 0.55 0.49 0.53 0.39 0.26 0.09 -0.05 -0.19 -0.46 -0.65 -0.90 -1.02 -1.20 12 ensemble average 28.06 27.73 27.49 27.38 27.42 27.35 27.34 27.23 27.32 27.52 27.72 27.68 27.22 26.68 26.19 25.92 25.70 0.46 0.47 0.53 0.59 0.70 0.68 0.71 0.58 0.45 0.26 0.08 -0.10 -0.38 -0.58 -0.77 -0.87 -1.03 climatology 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72