CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.68 27.38 27.19 27.19 27.17 27.10 27.02 27.10 27.48 27.94 28.19 28.00 27.62 27.31 27.20 27.16 27.10 1 0.26 0.20 0.16 0.23 0.28 0.29 0.21 0.10 0.13 0.24 0.35 0.29 0.20 0.13 0.17 0.20 0.22 1 27.67 27.42 27.34 27.42 27.44 27.36 27.23 27.29 27.61 28.00 28.18 27.94 27.53 27.19 27.05 26.97 26.83 2 0.25 0.24 0.31 0.46 0.55 0.54 0.41 0.29 0.26 0.30 0.34 0.23 0.10 0.01 0.02 0.01 -0.06 2 27.65 27.35 27.21 27.23 27.20 27.12 27.07 27.23 27.62 28.05 28.22 27.97 27.49 27.05 26.86 26.78 26.69 3 0.23 0.18 0.18 0.27 0.32 0.31 0.25 0.23 0.27 0.35 0.37 0.26 0.07 -0.12 -0.17 -0.18 -0.20 3 27.69 27.32 27.08 27.05 27.00 26.95 26.87 26.93 27.29 27.75 28.01 27.86 27.43 26.99 26.77 26.71 26.63 4 0.26 0.14 0.05 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.06 -0.07 -0.05 0.04 0.17 0.15 0.01 -0.18 -0.25 -0.26 -0.26 4 27.73 27.42 27.27 27.28 27.30 27.28 27.23 27.32 27.65 28.05 28.24 28.03 27.60 27.15 26.93 26.83 26.66 5 0.30 0.24 0.24 0.32 0.41 0.46 0.41 0.33 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.32 0.17 -0.03 -0.10 -0.13 -0.23 5 27.68 27.39 27.25 27.25 27.23 27.17 27.12 27.23 27.57 27.99 28.26 28.12 27.72 27.27 27.12 27.10 27.04 6 0.26 0.22 0.22 0.29 0.34 0.35 0.30 0.23 0.22 0.29 0.41 0.41 0.30 0.09 0.10 0.14 0.16 6 27.65 27.29 27.08 27.01 26.96 26.89 26.80 26.82 27.15 27.59 27.86 27.71 27.33 26.92 26.74 26.67 26.56 7 0.23 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.07 -0.01 -0.18 -0.20 -0.11 0.02 0.00 -0.10 -0.26 -0.29 -0.29 -0.33 7 27.67 27.35 27.18 27.15 27.14 27.12 27.04 27.07 27.34 27.72 27.93 27.73 27.30 26.83 26.60 26.49 26.33 8 0.24 0.17 0.15 0.18 0.25 0.30 0.22 0.07 -0.00 0.02 0.09 0.01 -0.12 -0.34 -0.43 -0.47 -0.56 8 27.64 27.33 27.18 27.16 27.14 27.08 26.99 27.04 27.34 27.75 28.02 27.90 27.52 27.04 26.86 26.82 26.77 9 0.21 0.15 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.26 0.17 0.04 -0.00 0.05 0.18 0.18 0.09 -0.14 -0.17 -0.14 -0.12 9 27.65 27.37 27.22 27.14 27.07 27.00 26.91 26.93 27.18 27.54 27.73 27.54 27.11 26.64 26.38 26.23 26.04 10 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.09 -0.07 -0.17 -0.16 -0.11 -0.17 -0.31 -0.54 -0.65 -0.74 -0.84 10 27.67 27.40 27.28 27.24 27.23 27.20 27.12 27.16 27.40 27.72 27.87 27.63 27.19 26.71 26.45 26.29 26.07 11 0.25 0.23 0.26 0.28 0.34 0.39 0.31 0.16 0.05 0.02 0.03 -0.08 -0.23 -0.47 -0.58 -0.67 -0.81 11 27.65 27.38 27.27 27.25 27.24 27.19 27.10 27.14 27.39 27.70 27.87 27.68 27.27 26.79 26.56 26.44 26.27 12 0.22 0.20 0.24 0.29 0.35 0.37 0.28 0.14 0.04 -0.00 0.03 -0.04 -0.15 -0.39 -0.47 -0.53 -0.61 12 ensemble average 27.67 27.37 27.21 27.20 27.18 27.12 27.04 27.10 27.42 27.82 28.03 27.84 27.43 26.99 26.79 26.71 26.58 0.24 0.19 0.18 0.24 0.29 0.30 0.22 0.11 0.07 0.12 0.19 0.13 0.00 -0.19 -0.24 -0.25 -0.30 climatology 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.54 27.20 27.03 27.05 27.09 27.06 27.01 27.11 27.48 27.84 27.94 27.57 27.04 26.59 26.31 26.18 26.01 1 0.28 0.24 0.24 0.32 0.42 0.44 0.36 0.24 0.21 0.20 0.16 -0.02 -0.22 -0.38 -0.48 -0.55 -0.66 1 27.53 27.19 27.07 27.15 27.21 27.21 27.21 27.37 27.82 28.26 28.48 28.16 27.65 27.23 27.06 27.05 26.98 2 0.26 0.23 0.28 0.43 0.54 0.58 0.56 0.51 0.55 0.62 0.70 0.56 0.38 0.27 0.27 0.33 0.31 2 27.51 27.19 27.02 27.05 27.04 27.05 27.03 27.18 27.48 27.83 28.01 27.76 27.26 26.77 26.60 26.61 26.62 3 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.33 0.37 0.43 0.38 0.32 0.22 0.19 0.24 0.16 0.00 -0.19 -0.19 -0.12 -0.05 3 27.60 27.23 27.01 26.97 26.91 26.90 26.83 26.99 27.36 27.71 27.78 27.35 26.83 26.29 25.97 25.74 25.51 4 0.33 0.27 0.22 0.25 0.24 0.28 0.18 0.13 0.09 0.07 -0.00 -0.25 -0.44 -0.68 -0.82 -0.99 -1.16 4 27.56 27.29 27.20 27.30 27.29 27.31 27.23 27.36 27.62 27.89 27.99 27.62 27.12 26.64 26.42 26.29 26.05 5 0.30 0.32 0.41 0.58 0.62 0.69 0.58 0.50 0.36 0.26 0.21 0.02 -0.14 -0.32 -0.37 -0.44 -0.62 5 27.54 27.27 27.13 27.19 27.15 27.16 27.05 27.17 27.41 27.72 27.84 27.54 27.08 26.58 26.40 26.33 26.22 6 0.27 0.31 0.34 0.47 0.48 0.53 0.40 0.30 0.15 0.08 0.06 -0.06 -0.19 -0.38 -0.39 -0.40 -0.45 6 27.53 27.20 26.99 26.94 26.81 26.74 26.61 26.73 27.09 27.46 27.56 27.18 26.72 26.23 25.94 25.70 25.42 7 0.27 0.23 0.20 0.21 0.15 0.11 -0.04 -0.14 -0.17 -0.18 -0.22 -0.41 -0.54 -0.73 -0.84 -1.03 -1.24 7 27.49 27.21 27.10 27.11 27.01 26.98 26.89 27.01 27.29 27.59 27.70 27.38 26.95 26.50 26.27 26.11 25.88 8 0.23 0.25 0.31 0.39 0.35 0.36 0.24 0.15 0.03 -0.05 -0.08 -0.22 -0.31 -0.46 -0.52 -0.61 -0.79 8 27.46 27.17 26.99 26.97 26.87 26.85 26.73 26.85 27.13 27.43 27.58 27.27 26.87 26.35 26.12 25.98 25.85 9 0.20 0.21 0.20 0.25 0.20 0.23 0.08 -0.02 -0.14 -0.21 -0.20 -0.32 -0.39 -0.61 -0.67 -0.74 -0.82 9 27.52 27.20 27.02 26.95 26.85 26.78 26.68 26.80 27.15 27.50 27.58 27.19 26.68 26.14 25.80 25.49 25.20 10 0.25 0.23 0.24 0.23 0.18 0.15 0.03 -0.06 -0.12 -0.13 -0.20 -0.41 -0.58 -0.83 -0.99 -1.23 -1.47 10 27.50 27.25 27.16 27.16 27.07 27.07 27.01 27.15 27.41 27.70 27.77 27.40 26.93 26.41 26.13 25.91 25.66 11 0.24 0.29 0.37 0.43 0.40 0.45 0.36 0.29 0.15 0.06 -0.01 -0.20 -0.34 -0.55 -0.65 -0.81 -1.01 11 27.48 27.20 27.03 27.00 26.92 26.92 26.83 26.93 27.21 27.50 27.59 27.23 26.76 26.18 25.90 25.68 25.49 12 0.22 0.24 0.24 0.28 0.25 0.30 0.17 0.07 -0.06 -0.14 -0.19 -0.37 -0.50 -0.78 -0.89 -1.05 -1.17 12 ensemble average 27.52 27.22 27.06 27.07 27.02 27.00 26.93 27.06 27.37 27.70 27.82 27.47 26.99 26.49 26.24 26.09 25.91 0.26 0.25 0.27 0.35 0.35 0.38 0.27 0.19 0.11 0.06 0.04 -0.13 -0.27 -0.47 -0.54 -0.64 -0.76 climatology 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67