CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 26.12 26.08 26.13 26.43 26.99 27.58 27.90 27.82 27.62 27.48 27.45 27.51 27.56 27.54 27.50 27.63 28.00 1 -0.77 -0.74 -0.69 -0.57 -0.35 -0.12 0.05 0.11 0.19 0.30 0.42 0.55 0.67 0.73 0.68 0.63 0.65 1 26.11 26.10 26.10 26.36 26.91 27.54 27.93 27.88 27.68 27.53 27.58 27.70 27.78 27.82 27.81 27.97 28.26 2 -0.78 -0.72 -0.71 -0.63 -0.44 -0.16 0.08 0.17 0.25 0.36 0.55 0.74 0.90 1.00 0.99 0.97 0.92 2 26.12 26.02 25.93 26.14 26.69 27.32 27.68 27.61 27.41 27.31 27.31 27.39 27.43 27.46 27.50 27.72 28.15 3 -0.76 -0.80 -0.89 -0.86 -0.66 -0.38 -0.16 -0.11 -0.02 0.14 0.28 0.43 0.55 0.65 0.68 0.72 0.80 3 26.16 26.09 26.11 26.35 26.91 27.51 27.87 27.83 27.65 27.54 27.52 27.58 27.58 27.53 27.45 27.58 28.00 4 -0.72 -0.73 -0.70 -0.65 -0.44 -0.19 0.03 0.11 0.23 0.37 0.49 0.62 0.69 0.71 0.64 0.59 0.65 4 26.21 26.16 26.14 26.39 26.95 27.58 27.94 27.86 27.64 27.51 27.53 27.65 27.68 27.65 27.60 27.76 28.15 5 -0.67 -0.66 -0.67 -0.61 -0.39 -0.12 0.09 0.14 0.21 0.33 0.50 0.69 0.80 0.84 0.78 0.77 0.81 5 26.22 26.12 26.05 26.27 26.86 27.48 27.84 27.74 27.52 27.39 27.40 27.52 27.55 27.53 27.51 27.69 28.10 6 -0.66 -0.70 -0.77 -0.72 -0.49 -0.22 -0.00 0.03 0.09 0.21 0.37 0.56 0.67 0.72 0.69 0.69 0.75 6 26.23 26.23 26.31 26.55 27.09 27.68 28.05 27.99 27.72 27.48 27.43 27.49 27.47 27.37 27.27 27.44 27.91 7 -0.66 -0.59 -0.51 -0.44 -0.26 -0.02 0.21 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.40 0.53 0.59 0.55 0.45 0.44 0.57 7 26.26 26.33 26.41 26.67 27.19 27.78 28.12 27.98 27.65 27.39 27.35 27.43 27.43 27.36 27.34 27.58 28.04 8 -0.63 -0.49 -0.40 -0.33 -0.16 0.08 0.28 0.27 0.23 0.21 0.33 0.47 0.54 0.55 0.52 0.58 0.70 8 26.28 26.26 26.25 26.45 26.97 27.56 27.95 27.83 27.53 27.26 27.23 27.31 27.32 27.23 27.20 27.44 27.96 9 -0.60 -0.55 -0.56 -0.55 -0.38 -0.14 0.10 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.20 0.35 0.44 0.42 0.38 0.45 0.61 9 26.25 26.22 26.27 26.47 26.96 27.52 27.88 27.80 27.51 27.21 27.11 27.12 27.08 26.97 26.92 27.14 27.67 10 -0.64 -0.60 -0.54 -0.52 -0.38 -0.18 0.04 0.09 0.08 0.03 0.08 0.16 0.19 0.16 0.10 0.15 0.32 10 26.30 26.36 26.44 26.63 27.09 27.63 27.98 27.86 27.53 27.19 27.08 27.09 27.05 26.98 26.99 27.29 27.81 11 -0.58 -0.45 -0.38 -0.37 -0.26 -0.07 0.14 0.14 0.11 0.02 0.05 0.13 0.17 0.16 0.17 0.29 0.47 11 26.32 26.33 26.35 26.51 26.98 27.52 27.90 27.80 27.51 27.17 27.09 27.14 27.15 27.08 27.06 27.32 27.81 12 -0.56 -0.49 -0.47 -0.48 -0.37 -0.18 0.05 0.09 0.09 -0.00 0.06 0.18 0.26 0.26 0.25 0.32 0.46 12 ensemble average 26.22 26.19 26.21 26.43 26.97 27.56 27.92 27.83 27.58 27.37 27.34 27.41 27.42 27.38 27.35 27.55 27.99 -0.67 -0.63 -0.61 -0.56 -0.38 -0.14 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.19 0.31 0.45 0.54 0.56 0.53 0.55 0.64 climatology 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 25.93 25.83 25.82 26.08 26.69 27.27 27.62 27.53 27.32 27.12 27.05 27.09 27.13 27.10 27.09 27.23 27.60 1 -0.74 -0.79 -0.83 -0.79 -0.58 -0.37 -0.16 -0.07 0.06 0.15 0.26 0.36 0.46 0.47 0.44 0.36 0.34 1 25.97 25.82 25.75 26.00 26.67 27.41 27.97 28.06 27.98 27.88 27.97 28.20 28.39 28.45 28.35 28.34 28.45 2 -0.69 -0.81 -0.90 -0.86 -0.59 -0.22 0.19 0.46 0.72 0.92 1.18 1.48 1.72 1.83 1.70 1.48 1.19 2 25.97 25.80 25.73 25.99 26.64 27.29 27.71 27.71 27.59 27.48 27.50 27.63 27.76 27.80 27.79 27.87 28.17 3 -0.70 -0.82 -0.92 -0.88 -0.63 -0.35 -0.07 0.12 0.33 0.51 0.71 0.91 1.09 1.18 1.14 1.01 0.91 3 25.95 25.86 25.79 26.01 26.65 27.25 27.62 27.54 27.38 27.16 27.06 27.04 26.97 26.86 26.78 26.97 27.43 4 -0.72 -0.76 -0.86 -0.86 -0.61 -0.39 -0.15 -0.06 0.12 0.20 0.27 0.32 0.31 0.23 0.13 0.10 0.17 4 26.07 25.95 25.89 26.13 26.81 27.50 28.02 28.04 27.90 27.74 27.75 27.93 28.03 28.05 27.94 28.01 28.23 5 -0.60 -0.68 -0.76 -0.73 -0.45 -0.13 0.24 0.44 0.63 0.78 0.96 1.21 1.36 1.42 1.29 1.15 0.96 5 26.04 25.92 25.87 26.12 26.78 27.41 27.80 27.71 27.50 27.30 27.31 27.46 27.59 27.62 27.56 27.67 27.99 6 -0.62 -0.70 -0.78 -0.75 -0.49 -0.23 0.02 0.11 0.24 0.33 0.52 0.74 0.92 0.99 0.91 0.81 0.73 6 26.03 26.01 26.00 26.28 26.88 27.43 27.72 27.50 27.21 26.86 26.72 26.68 26.64 26.58 26.54 26.79 27.25 7 -0.64 -0.62 -0.65 -0.58 -0.38 -0.21 -0.06 -0.09 -0.05 -0.10 -0.07 -0.04 -0.03 -0.05 -0.11 -0.08 -0.01 7 26.13 26.12 26.14 26.41 26.99 27.56 27.93 27.77 27.49 27.18 27.10 27.16 27.17 27.17 27.13 27.35 27.71 8 -0.53 -0.50 -0.51 -0.46 -0.27 -0.07 0.15 0.17 0.23 0.22 0.31 0.44 0.50 0.55 0.48 0.49 0.44 8 26.08 26.06 26.05 26.30 26.86 27.39 27.70 27.50 27.21 26.86 26.79 26.84 26.86 26.82 26.77 26.99 27.45 9 -0.58 -0.56 -0.60 -0.57 -0.41 -0.25 -0.08 -0.10 -0.06 -0.11 0.01 0.11 0.19 0.19 0.12 0.13 0.18 9 26.07 26.04 26.00 26.26 26.79 27.28 27.50 27.22 26.87 26.46 26.25 26.12 26.00 25.96 26.02 26.38 26.93 10 -0.60 -0.58 -0.65 -0.61 -0.47 -0.35 -0.28 -0.38 -0.40 -0.50 -0.54 -0.60 -0.67 -0.66 -0.63 -0.49 -0.33 10 26.16 26.16 26.16 26.42 26.92 27.40 27.66 27.43 27.11 26.74 26.58 26.53 26.45 26.44 26.50 26.84 27.32 11 -0.51 -0.47 -0.49 -0.45 -0.34 -0.24 -0.12 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.19 -0.22 -0.18 -0.15 -0.02 0.05 11 26.10 26.08 26.05 26.27 26.77 27.23 27.49 27.26 26.94 26.55 26.42 26.38 26.35 26.32 26.34 26.65 27.18 12 -0.56 -0.55 -0.61 -0.59 -0.50 -0.40 -0.29 -0.34 -0.32 -0.42 -0.37 -0.34 -0.32 -0.31 -0.31 -0.22 -0.09 12 ensemble average 26.04 25.97 25.94 26.19 26.79 27.37 27.73 27.61 27.38 27.11 27.04 27.09 27.11 27.10 27.07 27.26 27.64 -0.62 -0.65 -0.71 -0.68 -0.48 -0.27 -0.05 0.01 0.11 0.15 0.25 0.37 0.44 0.47 0.42 0.39 0.38 climatology 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26