CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.29 27.29 27.33 27.26 27.17 27.23 27.61 27.98 28.19 28.05 27.77 27.41 27.14 27.02 26.97 26.93 26.94 1 0.26 0.33 0.45 0.45 0.35 0.24 0.27 0.28 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.23 0.11 0.06 0.09 0.11 0.12 1 27.31 27.35 27.41 27.38 27.26 27.27 27.56 27.91 28.13 28.04 27.78 27.45 27.16 27.07 27.08 27.11 27.11 2 0.28 0.39 0.52 0.56 0.45 0.28 0.21 0.21 0.28 0.33 0.36 0.27 0.13 0.11 0.19 0.29 0.30 2 27.28 27.38 27.52 27.55 27.49 27.49 27.77 28.11 28.32 28.21 27.93 27.56 27.24 27.14 27.17 27.29 27.39 3 0.25 0.42 0.63 0.74 0.68 0.50 0.43 0.41 0.48 0.50 0.51 0.38 0.21 0.18 0.28 0.48 0.57 3 27.29 27.40 27.54 27.58 27.55 27.66 28.08 28.47 28.63 28.41 28.06 27.69 27.39 27.18 27.08 27.09 27.22 4 0.26 0.43 0.66 0.76 0.74 0.66 0.74 0.76 0.79 0.69 0.64 0.52 0.36 0.22 0.20 0.27 0.40 4 27.35 27.51 27.64 27.61 27.48 27.47 27.73 27.99 28.13 27.98 27.69 27.34 27.04 26.90 26.84 26.88 27.00 5 0.32 0.54 0.75 0.79 0.66 0.47 0.38 0.29 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.16 0.01 -0.06 -0.05 0.06 0.18 5 27.32 27.49 27.67 27.69 27.61 27.61 27.87 28.10 28.21 28.05 27.75 27.37 27.03 26.81 26.67 26.71 26.87 6 0.29 0.53 0.79 0.88 0.79 0.61 0.52 0.40 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.20 -0.00 -0.15 -0.21 -0.11 0.05 6 27.33 27.51 27.71 27.73 27.66 27.69 28.06 28.38 28.53 28.26 27.86 27.44 27.13 26.93 26.89 26.99 27.23 7 0.30 0.55 0.82 0.92 0.84 0.69 0.71 0.68 0.68 0.54 0.43 0.26 0.10 -0.03 -0.00 0.18 0.41 7 27.35 27.54 27.74 27.76 27.65 27.62 27.87 28.11 28.21 27.98 27.60 27.18 26.86 26.71 26.67 26.79 27.03 8 0.32 0.58 0.85 0.95 0.83 0.63 0.53 0.41 0.37 0.26 0.18 0.00 -0.16 -0.26 -0.22 -0.02 0.21 8 27.35 27.52 27.71 27.77 27.73 27.75 28.02 28.25 28.36 28.13 27.75 27.31 26.98 26.81 26.76 26.86 27.07 9 0.33 0.56 0.82 0.95 0.91 0.75 0.67 0.55 0.52 0.41 0.32 0.14 -0.05 -0.15 -0.13 0.04 0.26 9 27.32 27.53 27.77 27.80 27.68 27.67 28.04 28.40 28.53 28.24 27.84 27.43 27.13 26.96 26.94 27.08 27.33 10 0.30 0.57 0.88 0.98 0.86 0.67 0.70 0.70 0.68 0.53 0.42 0.26 0.10 0.00 0.05 0.26 0.52 10 27.38 27.59 27.81 27.86 27.76 27.76 28.04 28.31 28.42 28.19 27.83 27.42 27.13 27.01 27.01 27.14 27.33 11 0.35 0.63 0.93 1.04 0.94 0.76 0.70 0.61 0.57 0.47 0.41 0.24 0.10 0.04 0.13 0.32 0.51 11 27.38 27.58 27.79 27.86 27.81 27.86 28.16 28.43 28.55 28.33 27.97 27.54 27.21 27.06 27.04 27.16 27.33 12 0.35 0.62 0.91 1.05 0.99 0.86 0.81 0.73 0.70 0.62 0.54 0.36 0.18 0.10 0.16 0.34 0.51 12 ensemble average 27.33 27.47 27.64 27.65 27.57 27.59 27.90 28.20 28.35 28.15 27.82 27.43 27.12 26.97 26.93 27.00 27.15 0.30 0.51 0.75 0.84 0.75 0.59 0.55 0.50 0.51 0.44 0.39 0.25 0.09 0.01 0.04 0.19 0.34 climatology 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.25 27.32 27.44 27.43 27.30 27.30 27.60 27.82 27.83 27.43 27.01 26.55 26.25 26.13 26.08 26.17 26.37 1 0.47 0.60 0.77 0.80 0.65 0.43 0.34 0.19 0.05 -0.17 -0.26 -0.41 -0.54 -0.59 -0.59 -0.45 -0.28 1 27.22 27.40 27.58 27.67 27.62 27.65 27.95 28.18 28.27 27.97 27.64 27.30 27.06 27.08 27.16 27.31 27.34 2 0.44 0.68 0.91 1.04 0.97 0.78 0.68 0.54 0.50 0.37 0.37 0.34 0.27 0.36 0.49 0.69 0.68 2 27.26 27.48 27.70 27.78 27.73 27.74 28.03 28.28 28.36 27.98 27.54 27.15 26.90 26.93 27.01 27.17 27.22 3 0.47 0.75 1.04 1.16 1.08 0.87 0.76 0.64 0.58 0.38 0.27 0.19 0.11 0.21 0.34 0.54 0.57 3 27.24 27.42 27.69 27.84 27.83 27.85 28.08 28.22 28.15 27.70 27.25 26.77 26.45 26.28 26.21 26.32 26.55 4 0.46 0.70 1.02 1.21 1.18 0.99 0.81 0.58 0.37 0.10 -0.01 -0.19 -0.34 -0.44 -0.46 -0.31 -0.10 4 27.29 27.47 27.71 27.81 27.75 27.74 27.97 28.13 28.14 27.82 27.48 27.10 26.82 26.73 26.72 26.80 26.91 5 0.50 0.75 1.04 1.19 1.10 0.87 0.70 0.49 0.36 0.23 0.22 0.14 0.04 0.01 0.05 0.18 0.26 5 27.29 27.51 27.73 27.79 27.72 27.73 27.99 28.23 28.29 27.98 27.60 27.19 26.91 26.82 26.76 26.79 26.87 6 0.50 0.78 1.06 1.17 1.07 0.86 0.73 0.59 0.52 0.39 0.33 0.23 0.12 0.09 0.09 0.16 0.21 6 27.28 27.49 27.79 27.93 27.90 27.90 28.06 28.15 28.01 27.52 27.02 26.49 26.17 26.01 25.97 26.13 26.44 7 0.50 0.77 1.12 1.30 1.25 1.03 0.80 0.51 0.24 -0.08 -0.25 -0.47 -0.62 -0.71 -0.70 -0.50 -0.21 7 27.33 27.56 27.84 27.96 27.92 27.90 28.09 28.18 28.11 27.68 27.24 26.79 26.47 26.36 26.32 26.46 26.66 8 0.55 0.84 1.17 1.34 1.27 1.03 0.83 0.54 0.33 0.08 -0.03 -0.17 -0.32 -0.37 -0.35 -0.16 0.01 8 27.33 27.56 27.79 27.88 27.84 27.88 28.10 28.27 28.28 27.90 27.45 26.99 26.70 26.63 26.60 26.70 26.85 9 0.54 0.84 1.13 1.25 1.19 1.01 0.83 0.64 0.50 0.30 0.18 0.03 -0.08 -0.10 -0.07 0.07 0.20 9 27.30 27.47 27.75 27.85 27.82 27.80 28.00 28.11 28.02 27.58 27.15 26.67 26.38 26.22 26.22 26.40 26.73 10 0.51 0.75 1.08 1.23 1.17 0.93 0.73 0.47 0.24 -0.02 -0.12 -0.29 -0.41 -0.50 -0.45 -0.22 0.08 10 27.33 27.58 27.87 28.00 27.96 27.94 28.13 28.25 28.19 27.78 27.34 26.87 26.53 26.39 26.37 26.52 26.75 11 0.54 0.86 1.20 1.38 1.31 1.08 0.87 0.61 0.41 0.18 0.07 -0.09 -0.25 -0.34 -0.30 -0.11 0.10 11 27.33 27.58 27.82 27.93 27.89 27.93 28.16 28.34 28.37 28.01 27.58 27.14 26.85 26.77 26.77 26.87 27.04 12 0.54 0.86 1.15 1.30 1.24 1.06 0.89 0.71 0.59 0.41 0.32 0.17 0.06 0.05 0.10 0.25 0.39 12 ensemble average 27.29 27.49 27.73 27.82 27.77 27.78 28.01 28.18 28.17 27.78 27.36 26.92 26.62 26.53 26.52 26.64 26.81 0.50 0.76 1.06 1.20 1.12 0.91 0.75 0.54 0.39 0.18 0.09 -0.04 -0.16 -0.19 -0.15 0.01 0.16 climatology 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65