CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.82 27.87 27.84 27.79 27.83 28.14 28.49 28.64 28.43 28.08 27.75 27.52 27.45 27.42 27.39 27.36 27.42 1 0.86 0.99 1.03 0.97 0.83 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.72 0.66 0.58 0.49 0.49 0.54 0.58 0.55 0.42 1 27.81 27.98 28.02 27.95 27.93 28.17 28.49 28.63 28.39 28.00 27.63 27.36 27.26 27.25 27.30 27.36 27.48 2 0.85 1.09 1.21 1.13 0.93 0.83 0.79 0.78 0.67 0.57 0.45 0.33 0.29 0.36 0.49 0.54 0.49 2 27.79 27.90 27.94 27.87 27.85 28.07 28.43 28.68 28.56 28.27 27.95 27.73 27.72 27.81 27.96 28.05 28.11 3 0.83 1.01 1.13 1.05 0.85 0.72 0.73 0.83 0.85 0.84 0.77 0.70 0.76 0.93 1.15 1.23 1.11 3 27.81 27.91 27.88 27.82 27.84 28.14 28.50 28.70 28.57 28.26 27.94 27.63 27.48 27.42 27.43 27.48 27.55 4 0.85 1.02 1.07 1.00 0.84 0.80 0.80 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.76 0.60 0.52 0.54 0.62 0.67 0.55 4 27.80 27.96 27.92 27.75 27.69 27.92 28.21 28.36 28.17 27.84 27.47 27.16 27.00 26.91 26.92 26.98 27.17 5 0.84 1.08 1.11 0.93 0.70 0.57 0.51 0.51 0.46 0.41 0.30 0.13 0.04 0.02 0.10 0.16 0.18 5 27.79 27.97 27.99 27.88 27.83 28.00 28.27 28.45 28.34 28.04 27.68 27.37 27.24 27.22 27.28 27.36 27.50 6 0.83 1.08 1.17 1.07 0.83 0.65 0.57 0.60 0.63 0.62 0.50 0.34 0.28 0.33 0.46 0.54 0.50 6 27.83 28.00 27.98 27.89 27.89 28.17 28.46 28.59 28.38 28.02 27.67 27.38 27.18 27.07 27.11 27.27 27.45 7 0.87 1.11 1.16 1.08 0.89 0.82 0.75 0.75 0.67 0.60 0.50 0.35 0.22 0.19 0.30 0.45 0.46 7 27.82 27.99 27.98 27.85 27.81 28.02 28.26 28.37 28.13 27.74 27.34 27.05 26.90 26.81 26.86 27.01 27.29 8 0.86 1.10 1.16 1.04 0.81 0.68 0.56 0.53 0.42 0.32 0.16 0.02 -0.07 -0.08 0.04 0.20 0.29 8 27.80 27.96 28.02 27.96 27.92 28.09 28.30 28.42 28.21 27.83 27.41 27.09 26.92 26.85 26.92 27.09 27.34 9 0.84 1.07 1.20 1.14 0.93 0.74 0.59 0.57 0.50 0.40 0.23 0.06 -0.05 -0.04 0.11 0.28 0.34 9 27.79 27.99 27.98 27.87 27.87 28.20 28.53 28.62 28.36 28.00 27.68 27.43 27.28 27.21 27.30 27.48 27.71 10 0.83 1.11 1.17 1.05 0.87 0.85 0.83 0.78 0.65 0.58 0.51 0.41 0.32 0.32 0.48 0.67 0.71 10 27.81 28.03 28.06 27.95 27.93 28.17 28.41 28.47 28.18 27.78 27.38 27.11 26.97 26.94 27.06 27.26 27.53 11 0.85 1.14 1.24 1.13 0.94 0.83 0.71 0.63 0.47 0.35 0.20 0.08 0.01 0.06 0.24 0.45 0.54 11 27.78 27.96 28.02 27.96 27.97 28.20 28.46 28.55 28.31 27.92 27.52 27.23 27.09 27.05 27.14 27.29 27.51 12 0.82 1.08 1.20 1.14 0.97 0.86 0.76 0.70 0.59 0.49 0.35 0.20 0.13 0.17 0.33 0.47 0.51 12 ensemble average 27.80 27.96 27.97 27.88 27.86 28.11 28.40 28.54 28.34 27.98 27.62 27.34 27.21 27.16 27.22 27.33 27.50 0.84 1.07 1.15 1.06 0.87 0.76 0.70 0.70 0.62 0.56 0.44 0.31 0.25 0.28 0.41 0.52 0.51 climatology 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.50 27.57 27.55 27.47 27.52 27.84 28.11 28.21 27.87 27.51 27.11 26.89 26.84 26.88 26.91 26.94 27.14 1 0.77 0.90 0.92 0.82 0.65 0.57 0.47 0.43 0.28 0.24 0.15 0.11 0.12 0.22 0.29 0.29 0.27 1 27.47 27.60 27.69 27.63 27.69 27.97 28.18 28.25 27.94 27.57 27.20 26.92 26.90 26.92 27.06 27.15 27.42 2 0.74 0.93 1.07 0.98 0.82 0.71 0.54 0.47 0.34 0.31 0.24 0.13 0.17 0.26 0.43 0.50 0.55 2 27.48 27.69 27.80 27.77 27.81 28.06 28.33 28.49 28.27 27.88 27.48 27.21 27.26 27.38 27.51 27.53 27.70 3 0.76 1.02 1.18 1.12 0.94 0.80 0.70 0.72 0.67 0.62 0.52 0.42 0.53 0.71 0.88 0.88 0.83 3 27.51 27.67 27.74 27.69 27.71 27.96 28.12 28.19 27.85 27.50 27.05 26.70 26.53 26.44 26.44 26.49 26.76 4 0.78 1.00 1.11 1.04 0.84 0.69 0.48 0.41 0.25 0.24 0.08 -0.09 -0.19 -0.23 -0.19 -0.16 -0.11 4 27.49 27.64 27.74 27.67 27.69 27.91 28.04 28.07 27.78 27.47 27.13 26.85 26.77 26.73 26.80 26.89 27.18 5 0.77 0.97 1.11 1.02 0.83 0.64 0.40 0.29 0.18 0.21 0.16 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.18 0.24 0.32 5 27.52 27.74 27.81 27.73 27.74 28.00 28.26 28.41 28.21 27.87 27.49 27.20 27.18 27.17 27.21 27.20 27.38 6 0.80 1.07 1.18 1.08 0.87 0.73 0.62 0.63 0.61 0.60 0.53 0.41 0.46 0.50 0.58 0.55 0.51 6 27.51 27.73 27.83 27.83 27.86 28.07 28.19 28.14 27.70 27.25 26.77 26.43 26.24 26.14 26.22 26.41 26.79 7 0.78 1.06 1.20 1.18 0.99 0.80 0.55 0.36 0.10 -0.01 -0.19 -0.35 -0.48 -0.53 -0.41 -0.24 -0.08 7 27.54 27.72 27.82 27.79 27.80 28.01 28.11 28.08 27.67 27.27 26.87 26.58 26.48 26.42 26.55 26.72 27.09 8 0.82 1.06 1.20 1.14 0.93 0.75 0.47 0.30 0.07 0.01 -0.10 -0.21 -0.24 -0.25 -0.08 0.07 0.23 8 27.57 27.76 27.83 27.80 27.83 28.10 28.34 28.45 28.14 27.72 27.30 27.03 27.03 27.02 27.12 27.18 27.43 9 0.85 1.09 1.20 1.15 0.97 0.84 0.70 0.67 0.54 0.46 0.34 0.24 0.30 0.35 0.49 0.53 0.57 9 27.54 27.81 27.89 27.87 27.87 28.08 28.17 28.09 27.66 27.27 26.85 26.55 26.37 26.30 26.46 26.73 27.12 10 0.82 1.14 1.27 1.22 1.00 0.82 0.53 0.31 0.06 0.01 -0.11 -0.24 -0.36 -0.37 -0.17 0.08 0.26 10 27.55 27.80 27.92 27.89 27.91 28.14 28.24 28.16 27.72 27.29 26.85 26.53 26.41 26.38 26.55 26.79 27.17 11 0.83 1.13 1.30 1.24 1.04 0.88 0.60 0.39 0.12 0.02 -0.11 -0.25 -0.31 -0.29 -0.08 0.14 0.30 11 27.56 27.77 27.85 27.82 27.87 28.14 28.35 28.39 28.03 27.60 27.20 26.94 26.92 26.92 27.06 27.21 27.50 12 0.84 1.10 1.22 1.17 1.00 0.87 0.71 0.61 0.43 0.34 0.24 0.15 0.19 0.25 0.43 0.56 0.64 12 ensemble average 27.52 27.71 27.79 27.75 27.77 28.02 28.20 28.25 27.90 27.52 27.11 26.82 26.74 26.73 26.82 26.94 27.22 0.80 1.04 1.16 1.10 0.91 0.76 0.57 0.47 0.30 0.25 0.15 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.20 0.29 0.36 climatology 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87