CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.87 27.87 27.84 27.92 28.22 28.52 28.58 28.28 27.89 27.60 27.46 27.44 27.47 27.49 27.52 27.61 27.91 1 0.98 1.05 1.02 0.93 0.87 0.82 0.74 0.57 0.46 0.43 0.43 0.48 0.59 0.67 0.70 0.61 0.56 1 27.92 27.86 27.70 27.73 28.08 28.57 28.84 28.69 28.41 28.23 28.19 28.25 28.33 28.43 28.41 28.38 28.45 2 1.03 1.04 0.88 0.73 0.73 0.87 0.99 0.98 0.98 1.06 1.16 1.28 1.44 1.61 1.59 1.38 1.11 2 27.89 27.88 27.75 27.73 28.01 28.41 28.65 28.47 28.14 27.85 27.69 27.71 27.83 27.94 28.02 28.06 28.25 3 1.00 1.06 0.93 0.74 0.66 0.71 0.80 0.76 0.71 0.67 0.66 0.75 0.95 1.13 1.20 1.06 0.90 3 27.85 27.84 27.78 27.78 28.08 28.42 28.58 28.39 28.05 27.71 27.40 27.27 27.26 27.32 27.41 27.53 27.79 4 0.96 1.03 0.96 0.78 0.74 0.72 0.73 0.67 0.62 0.53 0.37 0.31 0.37 0.51 0.59 0.53 0.44 4 27.88 27.83 27.69 27.68 28.01 28.45 28.72 28.63 28.40 28.17 27.95 27.87 27.89 28.01 28.05 28.05 28.11 5 0.99 1.02 0.88 0.68 0.67 0.75 0.87 0.92 0.97 0.99 0.92 0.91 1.01 1.20 1.23 1.06 0.76 5 27.89 27.87 27.74 27.68 27.92 28.25 28.48 28.39 28.14 27.85 27.58 27.51 27.57 27.71 27.80 27.86 27.98 6 1.00 1.05 0.92 0.69 0.57 0.55 0.64 0.68 0.72 0.67 0.55 0.55 0.69 0.89 0.99 0.86 0.63 6 27.92 28.00 28.01 28.05 28.32 28.60 28.69 28.43 28.07 27.76 27.46 27.25 27.10 27.13 27.26 27.45 27.74 7 1.03 1.19 1.19 1.05 0.98 0.90 0.84 0.72 0.64 0.58 0.43 0.29 0.22 0.31 0.44 0.46 0.39 7 27.92 27.92 27.84 27.86 28.15 28.48 28.67 28.53 28.29 28.04 27.85 27.74 27.72 27.79 27.87 27.96 28.10 8 1.04 1.11 1.02 0.86 0.80 0.78 0.83 0.82 0.86 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.83 0.97 1.05 0.97 0.76 8 27.90 27.91 27.83 27.82 28.04 28.30 28.45 28.31 28.03 27.75 27.50 27.36 27.30 27.35 27.46 27.61 27.84 9 1.01 1.09 1.01 0.83 0.69 0.60 0.61 0.60 0.61 0.57 0.47 0.40 0.41 0.54 0.65 0.62 0.50 9 27.93 27.95 27.88 27.91 28.24 28.54 28.63 28.34 27.98 27.69 27.47 27.33 27.27 27.36 27.53 27.73 28.01 10 1.04 1.13 1.07 0.91 0.89 0.84 0.79 0.63 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.37 0.38 0.54 0.71 0.74 0.66 10 27.92 27.93 27.85 27.87 28.17 28.47 28.60 28.36 28.05 27.75 27.56 27.48 27.50 27.64 27.79 27.94 28.13 11 1.03 1.11 1.03 0.87 0.82 0.77 0.75 0.65 0.62 0.57 0.53 0.52 0.61 0.82 0.97 0.94 0.79 11 27.91 27.90 27.83 27.85 28.11 28.39 28.52 28.32 27.99 27.66 27.44 27.35 27.35 27.45 27.58 27.74 27.98 12 1.02 1.09 1.01 0.85 0.76 0.69 0.68 0.60 0.56 0.49 0.41 0.39 0.46 0.63 0.77 0.74 0.63 12 ensemble average 27.90 27.90 27.81 27.82 28.11 28.45 28.62 28.43 28.12 27.84 27.63 27.55 27.55 27.63 27.72 27.83 28.02 1.01 1.08 0.99 0.83 0.77 0.75 0.77 0.72 0.69 0.66 0.60 0.59 0.66 0.82 0.91 0.83 0.68 climatology 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.64 27.53 27.39 27.43 27.75 28.03 28.14 27.84 27.53 27.19 27.07 27.10 27.21 27.22 27.20 27.30 27.64 1 0.97 0.91 0.74 0.57 0.49 0.39 0.37 0.25 0.26 0.23 0.28 0.38 0.54 0.60 0.55 0.43 0.38 1 27.65 27.64 27.54 27.58 27.87 28.16 28.30 28.08 27.76 27.43 27.31 27.36 27.48 27.54 27.59 27.76 28.07 2 0.98 1.01 0.89 0.71 0.61 0.52 0.52 0.48 0.49 0.47 0.52 0.64 0.81 0.91 0.94 0.90 0.81 2 27.62 27.62 27.55 27.60 27.92 28.25 28.48 28.38 28.16 27.89 27.85 28.05 28.34 28.52 28.51 28.54 28.58 3 0.95 1.00 0.90 0.73 0.65 0.61 0.71 0.78 0.90 0.93 1.07 1.33 1.68 1.90 1.86 1.67 1.32 3 27.62 27.61 27.51 27.50 27.77 28.01 28.12 27.82 27.47 27.08 26.77 26.63 26.55 26.55 26.61 26.86 27.32 4 0.95 0.99 0.86 0.63 0.51 0.37 0.34 0.22 0.21 0.11 -0.02 -0.09 -0.12 -0.08 -0.04 -0.00 0.05 4 27.65 27.66 27.56 27.59 27.85 28.07 28.16 27.95 27.68 27.41 27.18 27.16 27.18 27.29 27.35 27.55 27.87 5 0.99 1.03 0.91 0.72 0.59 0.43 0.38 0.35 0.41 0.44 0.39 0.44 0.51 0.67 0.70 0.69 0.61 5 27.67 27.66 27.57 27.56 27.84 28.11 28.29 28.12 27.87 27.61 27.47 27.58 27.72 27.89 27.88 27.98 28.16 6 1.00 1.04 0.92 0.70 0.58 0.47 0.51 0.52 0.61 0.65 0.68 0.85 1.05 1.26 1.23 1.11 0.89 6 27.69 27.79 27.79 27.83 28.07 28.23 28.24 27.86 27.47 27.06 26.77 26.61 26.50 26.54 26.66 26.97 27.40 7 1.03 1.16 1.14 0.97 0.80 0.59 0.47 0.26 0.21 0.10 -0.02 -0.12 -0.17 -0.08 0.01 0.10 0.14 7 27.71 27.77 27.70 27.72 27.95 28.11 28.11 27.77 27.41 27.05 26.77 26.65 26.57 26.66 26.80 27.12 27.54 8 1.04 1.14 1.05 0.86 0.69 0.47 0.33 0.17 0.15 0.08 -0.02 -0.07 -0.10 0.04 0.15 0.25 0.28 8 27.70 27.72 27.64 27.67 27.94 28.19 28.32 28.07 27.74 27.41 27.22 27.23 27.24 27.33 27.36 27.52 27.79 9 1.03 1.10 0.99 0.80 0.68 0.56 0.54 0.47 0.48 0.45 0.43 0.50 0.57 0.70 0.70 0.66 0.53 9 27.72 27.78 27.75 27.77 28.00 28.13 28.09 27.66 27.26 26.84 26.57 26.41 26.33 26.44 26.66 27.01 27.49 10 1.05 1.16 1.10 0.90 0.74 0.49 0.31 0.06 -0.00 -0.12 -0.22 -0.31 -0.33 -0.18 0.01 0.15 0.23 10 27.73 27.80 27.76 27.81 28.06 28.21 28.18 27.80 27.40 27.00 26.71 26.60 26.55 26.67 26.85 27.17 27.60 11 1.06 1.18 1.11 0.95 0.80 0.57 0.41 0.20 0.14 0.03 -0.07 -0.12 -0.11 0.05 0.20 0.31 0.34 11 27.74 27.77 27.71 27.77 28.04 28.28 28.39 28.09 27.71 27.35 27.15 27.18 27.22 27.37 27.48 27.69 27.96 12 1.07 1.15 1.06 0.90 0.78 0.64 0.61 0.49 0.45 0.38 0.36 0.46 0.55 0.74 0.83 0.82 0.70 12 ensemble average 27.68 27.70 27.62 27.65 27.92 28.15 28.24 27.95 27.62 27.28 27.07 27.05 27.07 27.17 27.25 27.46 27.79 1.01 1.07 0.97 0.79 0.66 0.51 0.46 0.36 0.36 0.31 0.28 0.32 0.41 0.54 0.60 0.59 0.52 climatology 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26