This page provides correlation skill for the fields displayed at the CFS seasonal forecast website. The skill is calculated based on 15-member ensemble average for each initial month from CFS hindcast for 1982-2003. The ensemble consists of three 5-member groups initialized from oceanic analysis on 11th and 21st of the month prior to the first target month, and 1st of the first target month. The ensemble forecast covers 9 full target months. The skill for both monthly and seasonal average is calculated. The initial month in the following tables is the month prior to the first target month. For example, for the initial month labeled as Mar, the 15 forecast members consist of five members from 11th of March, five members from 21st of March, and five members from 1st of April. The 9 target months are April to December. The first target month (i.e., the 0-month-lead month) is April and the first target season (i.e., the 0-month-lead season) is Apr-May-Jun.
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