CFS Seasonal Forecast Verification

This page provides statistics of real time forecasts, and compares one-month-lead forecast and observation for three-month-mean fields. The forecasts are ensemble mean of 40 forecast members. All anomalies are with respect to 1982-2003 hindcast climatology, except for Nino SSTs in the 'Forecast anomalies' Table for which a bias correction with 1982-2003 average is first applied and then observed climatlogy of 1971-2000 is used to define anomalies.

Pattern-correlation of forecast anomalies
Recent history of Nino3.4 SST anomalies at 1, 3, and 6-month leads
Recent history of Nino3.4 SST anomalies of individual forecasts

Forecast anomalies
Target season
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
NDJ 2004/2005
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
DJF 2005
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JFM 2005
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
FMA 2005
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
MAM 2005
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
AMJ 2005
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
MJJ 2005
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JJA 2005
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JAS 2005
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
ASO 2005
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
SON 2005
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
OND 2005
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
NDJ 2005/2006
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
DJF 2006
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JFM 2006
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
FMA 2006
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
MAM 2006
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
AMJ 2006
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
MJJ 2006
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JJA 2006
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JAS 2006
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
ASO 2006
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
SON 2006
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
OND 2006
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
NDJ 2006/2007
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
DJF 2007
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JFM 2007
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
FMA 2007
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
MAM 2007
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
AMJ 2007
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
MJJ 2007
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JJA 2007
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JAS 2007
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
ASO 2007
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
SON 2007
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
OND 2007
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
NDJ 2007/2008
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
DJF 2008
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JFM 2008
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
FMA 2008
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
MAM 2008
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
AMJ 2008
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
MJJ 2008
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JJA 2008
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JAS 2008
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
ASO 2008
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
SON 2008
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
OND 2008
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
NDJ 2008/2009
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
DJF 2009
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JFM 2009
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
FMA 2009
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
MAM 2009
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
AMJ 2009
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
MJJ 2009
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JJA 2009
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JAS 2009
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
ASO 2009
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
SON 2009
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
OND 2009
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
NDJ 2009/2010
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
DJF 2010
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JFM 2010
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
FMA 2010
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
MAM 2010
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
AMJ 2010
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
MJJ 2010
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JJA 2010
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JAS 2010
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
ASO 2010
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
SON 2010
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
OND 2010
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
NDJ 2010/2011
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
DJF 2011
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JFM 2011
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
FMA 2011
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
MAM 2011
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
AMJ 2011
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
MJJ 2011
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JJA 2011
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JAS 2011
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
ASO 2011
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
SON 2011
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
OND 2011
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
NDJ 2011/2012
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
DJF 2012
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
JFM 2012
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
FMA 2012
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200
MAM 2012
Nino SST
Global SST
Global Prec
Global T2m
US Prec
US T2m
US SM
z200

CFS Forecast display
Latest CFS realtime forecast


CFS realtime forecast from previous months