Forecasts of SST and Sea level Anomalies Using a Markov Model

(SST anomalies are relative to the 1971-2000 climatology)
(Sea Level anomalies are relative to the 1981-98 climatology)

Explanation of the Forecasts

Forecasts of the tropical Pacific SST and sea level anomalies are presented here using a linear statistical model (Markov model). The Markov model is constructed in a reduced multivariate EOF space of observed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level analysis using the methodology of Xue and Leetmaa (2000). The SST is the NCEP SST analysis (Reynolds and Smith 1994); the sea level is from the NCEP ocean analysis (Behringer et al. 1998). All the data are monthly values averaged in grid boxes of 6 degrees in longitude and 2 degrees in latitude, and cover the tropical Pacific region within 19 degrees of the equator. The model is trained for the 1981-1998 period, and is built with three multivariate EOFs in which the anomalous fields of SST and sea level are equally weighted. The model contains 12 monthly regression matrices (Xue et al. 2000).

Forecast Data for Downloading (1981-1998, cross-validated, 1999-present real time)