The CFS MJO forecast shown here is based on the CFS numerical model output and is determined after applying the methodology of WH2004 to the model forecast data. Equivalent steps as for observational data are employed here. The anomaly is calculated after removing the seasonal cycle (first 4 harmonics), low-frequency variability linearly related to ENSO and the most recent 120 day mean. The anomalies are then projected onto the observed EOFs for the first two modes and then plotted in phase space after appropriate scaling.

Phase diagram for last 40 days of observations with the CFS forecast (blue line) for the next 15 days appended to the time series. The thick line is for the first 7 days while the thin line is for the remaining period.

Spatial OLR map reconstructed from the forecast of RMM1 and RMM2 for the next 15 days from CFS data. Blue shades show negative OLR anomalies and enhanced convection and yellow/red shades show positive anomalies and suppressed convection.

Phase diagram illustrating the recent verification of the CFS forecast. The solid line is the forecast from the date on the figure and the thin lines are the subsequent observations during the period. Correlation during the period is shown in the corner.

Historical verification of the CFS method via anomaly correlation for leads from 1 to 15 days. The validation period is from 2007-2008 forecast data.