HOME > Climate & Weather Linkage > Madden Julian Oscillation

  • Current Conditions
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  • Forecasts
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GFS MJO index ensemble plume
  • US CLIVAR MJO Forecast Project

The US CLIVAR program has instituted a MJO working group and a sub-group has been tasked to develop forecast metrics for inter-comparison of numerical models from several operational centers. The decision was made for NCEP / CPC to host the production, display, and evaluation of these MJO index forecasts.
CPC Forecast Metrics Web Page
US CLIVAR MJO Working Group

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  • Additional MJO Products

  • Time-Longitude Sections of MJO-Associated Anomalies Only
850-hPa Zonal Wind 200-hPa Zonal Wind 200-hPa Vel Potential 850-hPa Vel Potential

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  • Expert Discussions

A global tropics benefits/hazards assessment that incorporates the current state and anticipated evolution of the MJO as input can be found as part of CPC's expert assessments.

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  • Composites

MJO composites using the Wheeler and Hendon (2004) MJO index. The index is based on a combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis using outgoing longwave radiation, 850 hPa zonal wind and 200 hPa zonal wind as input. ENSO and other low-frequency variability is removed in order to target the MJO signal. Shading on the following plots indicate significance at the 95% confidence interval. Contours for all areas are shown for reference.

  November - March May - September
200 hPa Velocity PotentialNovember - March 200 hPa Velocity PotentialMay - September 200 hPa Velocity Potential
Outgoing Longwave RadiationNovember - March Outgoing Longwave RadiationMay - September Outgoing Longwave Radiation
PrecipitationNovember - March PrecipitationMay - September Precipitation
850 hPa Wind and Velocity PotentialNovember - March 850 hPa Wind and Velocity PotentialMay - September 850 hPa Wind and Velocity Potential
Sea Level PressureNovember - March Sea Level PressureMay - September Sea Level Pressure

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  • Educational Material

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  • Publications

Higgins, R. W., and S. D. Schubert, 1996: Simulations of persistent North Pacific circulation anomalies and interhemispheric teleconnections. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 188-207.

Higgins, R. W., and K. C. Mo, 1997: Persistent North Pacific circulation anomalies and the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. J. Climate, 10, 223-244.

Higgins, R. W., J. K. Schemm, W. Shi and A. Leetmaa, 2000a: Extreme precipitation events in the western United States related to tropical forcing. J. Climate, 13,793-820.

Higgins, R. W., and W. Shi, 2001: Intercomparison of the principal modes of interannual and intraseasonal variability of the North American Monsoon System. J. Climate, 14, 403-417.

L'Heureux, M. L. and R. W. Higgins, 2008: Boreal Winter Links between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. J. Climate, In press.

Kousky, V. and M. Kayano, 1994: Principal modes of outgoing longwave radiation and 250-mb circulation for the South American sector. J. Climate, 1994, 1131-1143.

Kayano, M. and V. Kousky, 1999: Intraseasonal (30-60 day) variability in the global tropics: principal modes and their evolution. Tellus, 51, 373-386.

Mo, K. C. and R. W. Higgins, 1998: Tropical influences on California precipitation. J. Climate, 11, 412-430.

Seo, K., W. Wang, J. Gottschalck, Q. Zhang, J. Schemm, W. Higgins and A. Kumar, 2008: Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from several statistical and dynamical forecast models, J. Climate, Submitted.

Wheeler, M. and H. Hendon, 2004: An All-Season Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index: Development of an Index for Monitoring and Prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1917-1932.

Zhang, C. and J. Gottschalck, 2002: SST Anomalies of ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Equatorial Pacific. Journal of Climate, 15, 2429-2445.

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