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Recent verification information for the Constructed Analogue MJO index forecast. Historical verification is also provided using the available data record.

Verification for the previous 7 days
7-Day verification of the MJO index from the CA

Phase diagram illustrating the recent verification of the CA MJO index forecast. The thick line is the CA model forecast and the thin line is the corresponding observations during the period. Only the forecast points out to seven days are shown.

 
Verification for the previous 15 days
15-Day verification of the MJO index from the CA

Phase diagram illustrating the recent verification of the CA MJO index forecast. The thick line is the CA model forecast and the thin line is the the corresponding observations during the period.

 
90-Day Correlation
90 day verification of the MJO index from the CA

Anomaly correlation for RMM1 and RMM2 during the last 90 days for the Constructed Analogue MJO index forecast for leads from 1 to 15 days.

 
Historical Correlation
Historical verification of the CA MJO index forecast

Historical verification of the Constructed Analogue MJO index forecast via anomaly correlation for leads from 1 to 15 days for both RMM1 and RMM2. The validation period shown here is from January 2005-present. These curves will be extended and updated in realtime shortly.

 
Comparison with GFS Forecasts
Most recent 90 day anomaly correlation between the CA and the GFS forecasts of the MJO index

Comparison of anomaly correlation between the constructed analogue method (CAM) and both the operational and ensemble mean GFS MJO index forecasts. Plots show the correlation of RMM1 and RMM2 for the last 90 days for leads from 1 to 15 days for all three methods.